Twins Prospect Power Rankings - Week 3

1. 3B Danny Valencia AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 1
Age: 24
Stats: .309 2 HR 6 RBI
Was a single short of the cycle on Sunday. He has an OPS of .978 so far. He has all the look of the perennial .300 hitter.

2. C Wilson Ramos AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 2
Age: 24
Stats: .250 1 HR 7 RBI
He is struggling a little at the plate, so far but he still has the talent. The success of Jose Morales for the Twins is creating even more of a logjam at the catcher position.

3. OF Ben Revere High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: 4
Age: 20
Stats: .290 1 HR 12 RBI 7 SB
Has continued to hit and steal bases in a very pitcher-friendly league. He is the real deal.

4. OF Aaron Hicks Rookie - Elizabethton
Previous Rank: 3
Age: 19
Stats: N/A

5. RHP Anthony Slama AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 5
Age: 25
Stats: 7.2 IP 0.00 ERA 15 K
He is an absolute stud only giving up 4 hits and 2 walks so far this season. He will be in the majors at some point this season.

6. 3B Luke Hughes AAA - Rochester
Previous Rank: 7
Age: 24
Stats: .245 3 HR 14 RBI
His average may not be ideal but he is doing very well as a force in the middle of the Rochester lineup.

7. RHP Anthony Swarzak AAA - Rochester
Previous Rank: 6
Age: 23
Stats: 17 IP 1.59 ERA 11 K .88 WHIP
His team must hate him because he is 0-3 in 3 starts with a 1.59 ERA. With Humber clearing waivers it is unlikely he will get a call to the majors this year, but he is on track to get a chance as a starter down the line.

8. RHP Carlos Guetierrez High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: 9
Age: 22
Stats: 18 IP 0.50 ERA 9 K 0.56 WHIP
Strikeout rate is not very high, but he is dominating High A ball and should get moved up to New Britain by June.

9. OF Joe Benson High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: 10
Age: 21
Stats: .314 1 HR 8 RBI 2 SB
Continues to hit for a good average and the important thing is that he is still healthy given his history.

10. 1B/OF Chris Parmelee High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: NR
Age: 21
Stats: .182 3 HR 9 RBI
Is very similar to Adam Dunn. He is either going to hit a home run, strikeout or walk and each is equally likely. Hitting 3 home runs in the FSL is an accomplishment. He far and away has the most power in the Twins system, but in the Twins system he will need to improve the average.

Promoted off List: Jose Mijares

The Joe Mauer Lineup Conundrum

We are all looking forward to the return of Joe Mauer next weekend, but his return will pose an interesting question on how to structure the lineup. Jason Kubel and Justin Morneau have been far and away our two best hitters so far batting back to back. If you are to put Joe Mauer in front them then you have three left-handed hitters in a row. That is not something any manager likes to do although Philadelphia is currently doing it with Utley-Howard-Ibanez. I don't think that is something Gardenhire would like to do but the question is whether he even has a chance.

One option is to bat Mauer 2nd and put a righthander in the 3 hole. The problem is Mauer does not like batting second and who do you put in the 3 hole. This would be the solution if Cuddyer, Crede or Young were hitting well but they are all around the Mendoza line. The other option is to put a righthander between Morneau and Kubel but then you have the team's rbi leader batting 6th in Kubel and I don't think the Twins want to break up Kubel and Morneau.

I don't think the Twins currently have a choice but to bat them in a row, at least until a right hander starts to hit consistently. I also think it can work because they all do hit left-handed pitchers reasonably well. Mauer is a .300 hitter in his career against lefties, Morneau is only .261 against lefties for his career but hit .284 last year and is actually hitting .417 so far this year, and Kubel is 3 for 8 so far this season against lefties.

It is not ideal but I think the Twins don't have a choice since the three are their best hitters. I think this is what the lineup will look like when Mauer returns.

RF/LF Denard Span
2B Alexi Casilla / Brendan Harris
C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
DH Jason Kubel
3B Joe Crede
LF/RF Delmon Young / Michael Cuddyer
SS Nick Punto
CF Carlos Gomez

The Beast that is Justin Morneau

I thought I would do a post professing my love for Justin Morneau since I don't think he gets the attention and praise he deserves. This was brought up by Peter Gammons on the Mike and Mike Show today. He listed Joe Mauer as one of the players he would like to build a team around. Mauer is good and yes two batting titles is impressive but I would rather build the team around Justin.

We have seen in these 3 weeks what this team would look like without Mauer and while it isn't that good this team is functioning. Imagine this team without Justin Morneau in the middle of the lineup. It should be noted that we can only imagine since he has yet to get injured for a significant period of time. Who would hit for power? Who would be a threat? Who would drive in the runs?

Morneau has driven in over 100 rbi's for three consecutive seasons, and while we take that for granted Kirby Puckett went over 100 rbi's only three times in his career. Kent Herbek only hit over 100 rbi's once in his career. If he gets over 100 rbi's this year he will do something Harmon Killebrew never even did. In those 3 years he has driven in 370 runs. Only Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard have driven in more runs in that time. He drove in more runs as such stalwarts as Albert Pujols, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and David Wright.

He has hit over 20 home runs four straight years and was the first Twin to hit over 30 home runs since Hrbek in 1987. In the last three years he has hit 115 doubles and 88 home runs. It is also forgotten that he is one of the best defensive first basemen in the game and should win multiple Gold Gloves before he is done. I know winning batting titles is special, but I would take Morneau's bat and the assurance that he will be in the lineup every day over Joe Mauer's .330 all single average any day.

Two Week Assumption of Twins Players

Here is a list of some position players and starters and how they have fared so far this year. A lot have room for improvement and only Perkins and maybe Kubel are playing out of their league.

• Denard Span: .300 1 HR 9 RBI 3 SB .397 OBP. He is the prototypical leadoff hitter. I was worried about him regressing, but he takes professional at-bats every single time. He should be exempt from the outfield rotation and leading off every game.
• Alexi Casilla: .196 0 HR 2 RBI 0 SB. He has struggled hitting from the right side, but he has fully come into his own playing second base. With his compact swing and speed, I am not worried about his offense yet. He will benefit a lot from having Mauer bat behind him.
• Justin Morneau: .321 2 HR 9 RBI. Same old, same old. Simply a professional hitter. He is currently on pace for .321-23-104. He is guarenteed to get at least that but should end up even better.
• Jason Kubel: .333 2 HR 12 RBI. Surprise give this guy at-bats and he produces. While his average is likely to drop, there is no reason if he gets plenty of at-bats in the 5 hole once Mauer gets back that he doesn't go .285-25-100.
• Michael Cuddyer: .235 1 HR 5 RBI. Gardenhire loves this guy symbolized by him only sitting one game so far. Why he is not platooned more I have no idea. He takes a lot of bad at-bats. It is too bad that both him and Delmon Young are right handed or else the rotation would be solved.
• Joe Crede: .175 1 HR 3 RBI. A disapointment so far. Very good defensively, but with Buscher and Harris hot so far, I wouldn't mind him sitting a few games. He should hit better once he settles into this team.
• Delmon Young: .212 1 HR 7 RBI. He is oft-maligned and took absolutely terrible at-bats swinging at every pitch. When he gets patient and takes pitches he has more success. He is better than Cuddyer if he does not force it at the plate.
• Carlos Gomez: .200 0 HR 1 RBI 2 SB. He definitely has been more patient at the plate and it is a shame it has not paid off yet. To show how important he is to the offense he has reached base 9 times with 7 hits and 2 walks and he has scored 5 times. He is also the best defensive centerfielder in the AL, he may struggle at times but he should be in the lineup close to every game.
• Brendan Harris: .407 1 HR 2 RBI. He has settled very well into his role as a bench player. He deserves to get spot starts for Casilla, Punto, and Crede. They need to use his bat while he is hitting so well, because it is not likely to last.
• Glen Perkins: 1-1 1.50 ERA 12 K. He is off to a great start and should be 3-0 but has gotten little offense behind him. He may not continue to be an ace but he looks to be a very solid starter and not the #5 starter that he came into the season as.
• Francisco Liriano: 0-3 5.09 ERA 11 K. He just can't seem to break through. In the Seattle start he was undone by a few bad pitches and someone golfing a shot out. In Chicago he was undone by a small strike zone and unraveling in one inning due to not getting calls. He seemed to be closer to reaching his potential by holding the hot Blue Jays to 1 run in 7 innings. He is still the best pitcher on this team.
• Nick Blackburn: 0-1 5.71 ERA 5 K. He is skirting the fine line between Derek Lowe and Carlos Silva. Batters are batting .310 against him. He can give the team innings but he worries me a lot because you can not continue to succeed being that hittable.
• Kevin Slowey: 2-0 5.89 ERA 12 K. Had an absolutely terrible start against the Blue Jays but fared much better against the Angels. He is the type of pitcher who needs to outsmart instead of overwhelm and he has yet to do so this year.
  

MLB Power Rankings - Week 2

1. Chicago Cubs
Previous Rank: 2
Record: 7-4
Took 2 out of 3 from main challengers in St. Louis and the lineup is producing without much help yet from Geovanny Soto, Milton Bradley and Derrek Lee.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous Rank: 9
Record: 10-3
Simply has the best lineup in the NL and maybe all of the majors. Billingsley and Kershaw have pitched like absolute aces so far.

3. Toronto Blue Jays
Previous Rank: 7
Record: 10-4
Lineup has been amazing so far but the team has yet to play the powers of the AL East and I am still unconvinced they are a legitimate threat to win the AL East.

4. Florida Marlins
Previous Rank: 8
Record: 11-1
Off to a torrid start and could very well win the NL East this year with that pitching staff, but they have already played 6 games against Washington.

5. New York Yankees
Previous Rank: 5
Record: 7-6
This team would be a lot better if they stopped throwing Chein-Ming Wang out there every 5th game. The Yankees are 7-3 in games that Wang does not pitch.

6. Boston Red Sox
Previous Rank: 4
Record: 7-6
They have a decision on what to do with David Ortiz as he is hitting .170 with 0 home runs. He is not the force he used to be.

7. Saint Louis Cardinals
Previous Rank: 14
Record: 8-5
The team is off to a great start due to Albert Pujols (whose Sportscenter commercial I love) in full effect. The question is whether they can survive without Chris Carpenter. They won't win the NL Central but they are a threat to win the Wild Card.

8. Tampa Bay Rays
Previous Rank: 1
Record: 5-8
This team is struggling to get production out of Upton, Crawford and Burrell so far, but the team does not need to panic yet. The bullpen on the other hand is a big issue.

9. Chicago White Sox
Previous Rank: 15
Record: 7-5
Carlos Quentin is mashing just as like last year as he leads the majors with 7 home runs. Just think how many he will hit when it warms up in Chicago. He could hit 50 this year.

10. New York Mets
Previous Rank: 6
Record: 6-6
They are struggling to find pitching after Johan, but Pelfrey and Maine are better than their 8 and 7 ERA's show. They should still contend in the NL East.

11. Detroit Tigers
Previous Rank: 13
Record: 7-5
This team is playing well and might actually be getting Joel Zumaya back. Miguel Cabrera is an absolute masher.

12. Atlanta Braves
Previous Rank: 9
Record: 6-6
Fell back to earth by getting swept by the Marlins but they still have enough pitching and hitting to compete with the Marlins and the rest of the NL East.

13. Minnesota Twins
Previous Rank: 10
Record: 7-7
The bullpen is a big concern especially with Jesse Crain headed for the DL, but the rotation is starting to look better and if Glen Perkins keeps pitching 8 innings it might not be such a huge problem.

14. Philadelphia Phillies
Previous Rank: 12
Record: 5-6
The lineup is producing as Raul Ibanez has made the transition to Philly very nicely, but if Cole Hamels can not turn it around they have no chance of winning the NL East.

15. Los Angeles Angels
Previous Rank: 3
Record: 4-8
I don't know what this organization did but they seem to be cursed. John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Kelvim Escobar, Dustin Moseley, and Vladimir Guerrero are all on the DL and they have to still deal with the tragedy of Nick Adnehart. If they can get healthy they should still win the AL West.

16. Cincinnati Reds
Previous Rank: 21
Record: 6-5
Is over .500 despite slow starts by Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Jonny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez. That could be attributed to playing Pittsburgh, Houston and Milwaukee.

17. Kansas City Royals
Previous Rank: 23
Record: 7-5
Zach Grienke is out of the gates fast with a 34 inning scoreless streak dating back to last year, but they will be without Alex Gordon for two months. I just don't see enough offense to win or compete in the AL Central.

18. Seattle Mariners
Previous Rank: 22
Record: 8-5
The team will hold 1st place in the AL West due to Bedard and Felix until the Angels decide to get healthy and take it back.

19. San Diego Padres
Previous Rank: 27
Record: 9-4
They have not cooled down yet beating the Mets and Phillies, but I still refuse to believe in this team. The only thing is this start will lead to them keeping Peavy and Chris Young until the All-Star break instead of the end of May.

20. Oakland A's
Previous Rank: 19
Record: 5-7
Taking 2 out of 3 from Boston was good and despite of going 1-2 against Toronto holding them to only 10 runs in 3 games is something to hang your hat on. The problem is Holliday and Giambi have yet to hit a home run. The team only has 3 home runs total.

21. Texas Rangers
Previous Rank: 18
Record: 5-7
This team is fun to watch unless you want them to win or you like pitching. 80 runs in 12 games is astonishing. The real astonishing thing is they are doing that while Josh Hamilton and Chris Davis are slumping.

22. Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous Rank: 16
Record: 4-8
The team is really missing Brandon Webb who should be back in the next two weeks, but the question is whether the team can improve on its .215 batting average. The offense will likely keep them from competing with the Dodgers this year.

23. Milwaukee Brewers
Previous Rank: 17
Record: 4-8
A poor start by Yovanni Gallardo has really hurt this team as the pitching staff lacks depth. But a schedule of Mets, Cubs and Reds have also contributed to a slow start.

24. Cleveland Indians
Previous Rank: 20
Record: 4-9
Improved slightly this week taking advantage of the Chein-Ming Wang and a good start by Cliff Lee but the pitching is just not good enough.

25. Baltimore Orioles
Previous Rank: 24
Record: 6-7
The were given a large dose of reality by being swept by the Red Sox. It may be a long season but Adam Jones so far looks like an absolute stud and #1 prospect Matt Wieters should be called up within the month.

26. Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous Rank: 29
Record: 6-6
Great starts by Paul Moholm or Zach Duke and enough pieces in the lineup should make this team not the worst in the MLB.

27. San Francisco Giants
Previous Rank: 26
Record: 4-8
Finally got a good start by Lincecum and Randy Johnson took a no-hitter to the 7th inning. They just don't have the offense to compete but could work it's way up to a .500 team.

28. Colorado Rockies
Previous Rank: 25
Record: 4-7
Terrible bullpen and pitching has been a problem but this team has had to play the Dodgers, Cubs, and the Phillies so far. That would raise any pitching staff's ERA.

29. Houston Astros
Previous Rank: 28
Record: 4-8
Being swept by the Cardinals and the Reds solidifies their status as a second-class citizen in the NL Central. They for some reason used this to give manager Cecil Cooper an extension.

30. Washington Nationals
Previous Rank: 30
Record: 1-10
This franchise is an absolute disgrace as they blew 9th inning leads in all 3 games to the Marlins and even the jersey makers don't care about this team.

Stud of the Week: Ian Kinsler, TEX
Stats: .555 2 HR 6 RBI 6 SB
Honorable Mention: Zach Grienke, Matt Kemp, Carlos Pena, Carlos Quentin, Chad Billingsley, Glen Perkins

Dud of the Week: Chien-Ming Wang, NYY
Stats: 2 Starts 2.1 IP 16 ER 14 Hits 2 K
Dishonorable Mention: Saul Rivera, Zach Miner, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ryan Spilboroghs, Jordan Schafer, Randy Winn

Twins Prospect Power Rankings - Week 2

1. 3B Danny Valencia AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 1
Age: 24
Stats: .314 1 HR 2 RBI
Hasn't shown much power but has shown patience at the plate with 10 walks and a OBP of .478.

2. C Wilson Ramos AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 2
Age: 21
Stats: .220 1 HR 5 RBI
Has been a little streaky so far at the plate, but does not look overwhelmed at the AA level.

3. OF Aaron Hicks Rookie - Elizabethton
Previous Rank: 3
Age: 19
Stats: N/A

4. OF Ben Revere High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: 6
Age: 20
Stats: .316 1 HR 8 RBI 4 SB
Has continued to hit well at Fort Myers. Has hit .438 in the last 5 games.

5. RHP Anthony Slama AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 5
Age: 24
Stats: 5 IP 0.00 ERA 9 K
Has continued his domination in AA. With the Twins bullpen issues it is very possible to see him up with the big club later this year at least by September.

6. RHP Anthony Swarzak AAA - Rochester
Previous Rank: 7
Age: 23
Stats: 2 Starts, 11 IP 0.82 ERA 9 K
Has had two very good starts with a WHIP of 0.82. Would likely be the first call-up to the rotation should someone go down for an extended period of time. That would change it Humber somehow clears waivers.

7. 3B Luke Hughes AAA - Rochester
Previous Rank: 4
Age: 24
Stats: .219 1 HR 8 RBI
Is struggling to hit for average and already has 4 errors on the season. Not a very good start.

8. LHP Jose Mijares AAA - Rochester
Previous Rank: 9
Age: 24
Stats: 6.1 IP 0.00 ERA 4 K
Has seemed to have bounced back for terrible spring with only 1 walk in over 6 innings. If he continues he should be moved up to the Majors by May.

9. RHP Carlos Gutierrez High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: 8
Age: 22
Stats: 2 Starts 11 IP 0.82 ERA 8 K
The talk through the organization is that he could move up very quickly. With starts like he has had so far he could be in New Britain by June.

10. OF Joe Benson High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: NR
Age: 21
Stats: .343 1 HR 7 RBI 1 SB
Has been set back by injuries so far in his minor league career but is a great athlete and has gotten off to a very good start so far this year.

Fell out of rankings: Shooter Hunt

Weekend Preview

With baseball in full gear and NHL and NBA playoffs starting the two month long playoff season, there is a lot for a sports fan to watch. Here is some of the things I look forward to watching.

• Royce White will be involved in the Jordan Brand Classic on Saturday at 7pm on ESPN2. He will be competing against the best high school players in the nation, many of which are McDondald's All-Americans. It will be a very good measuring stick of what kind of expectations we should have for the kid when he hits campus next fall.
• The Twins welcome Torii Hunter and the Los Angeles Angels into town for 3 games. The Twins have gotten off to an underwhelming start but it still should be fun to see Torii Hunter patrol centerfield in the Metrodome again. I will be attending the game on Sunday and hope to see another great start from Glen Perkins.
  
• The NHL Playoffs started on Wednesday and have plenty of games on Versus or NBC this weekend. Teams I am cheering for: Boston Bruins (have Wheeler and Kessel) and the San Jose Sharks (like J0e Thorton and they can stop the hated Detroit Red Wings).
• The NBA Playoffs start on Saturday and some of the steam has gotten taken out with Garnett missing the playoffs and wrecking the Celtics chances to repeat. Games will be on ABC, ESPN or TNT. Teams I am cheering for: Miami Heat (Wade is my favorite player and a big Beasley fan), Orlando Magic (Dwight Howard is an absolute beast), and the Portland Trail Blazers (He has started slow but I'm still a Greg Oden fan).
  

Why You Can't Trust a 17-year Old Kid

There is now a football player from Wisconsin that I hate as much as Brett Farve and it is a 17 year old kid. Linebacker Konrad Zagzebski was the first commit to Brewster for the 2010 class. He spoke about the commitment to Gopher Illustrated. Here is what he said to Gopher Illustrated on January 22nd:

"I am psyched right now and super pumped to be a Gopher. I had a feeling that an offer was coming and I knew that if it did my recruiting process would be over. I don't care who else offers, I want to be a Golden Gopher." I knew that even if all the schools in the Big Ten were to offer that I would end up at Minnesota," he said. "I felt loyalty from the Minnesota staff ever since they started to recruit me last year. According to Zagzebski, this decision is final. "The way I see it Wisconsin and everyone else had their chance, but to be honest I really never saw myself playing at Wisconsin," he said. "Minnesota is where it is at right now and it doesn't take long to recognize that they are a program on the rise. There is a lot of excitement within the program and I cannot wait to play in the new stadium. I just want to be at Minnesota. My decision is over and I can now focus on one more year of high school ball."

Surprise, Surprise 4 months later he has de-committed and committed to Wisconsin.

I know kids are fickle and de-commit all the time but this is ridiculous. No one made him be so definitive. I have no respect for anyone who can not be trusted or taken at their word. I'm glad this kid isn't a Gopher and by his actions the Badgers deserve a little flake and tool like him.

MLB Power Rankings - Week 1

(note: This ranking is not based only on record this early in the year. It is a combination of expectations and results. As the season progresses this will change.)

1. Tampa Bay Rays
Previous Rank: 1
Record: 3-3
They keep their spot at the top despite going 3-3 because they went 2-1 at Fenway and they are adding back B.J. Upton this week. Longoria is off to making my MVP prediction look pretty good.

2. Chicago Cubs
Previous Rank: 4
Record: 4-2
The offense has looked very good despite a slow start by Milton Bradley and missing Geo Soto for most of the week. Marmol will be the closer by the middle of May at least.

3. Los Angeles Angels
Previous Rank: 5
Record: 3-3
To take go .500 playing Oakland and Boston without Lackey, Santana and Escobar while dealing with the death of Nick Adenhart is quite the feat.

4. Boston Red Sox
Previous Rank: 2
Record: 2-4
Playing the Rays and Angels is a rough start to the season. We will get more of an idea after they face Oakland and Baltimore this week.

5. New York Yankees
Previous Rank: 3
Record: 3-3
This lineup needs A-Rod back in the lineup badly. Going 3-3 against Kansas City and Baltimore is not a very impressive start to the season.

6. New York Mets
Previous Rank: 8
Record: 3-3
A very noticeable difference with K-Rod and Putz in the back of the lineup. Santana is off to a very good start so far in the season.

7. Toronto Blue Jays
Previous Rank: 14
Record: 5-2
Offense is off to a blistering start, but it will be interesting how much off that is due to facing the Detroit and Cleveland pitching staffs. I still don't think they can make the AL East a 4 team race.

8. Florida Marlins
Previous Rank: 21
Record: 5-1
If their pitching staff stays healthy this could be a very dangerous team that could steal a wild card. Josh Johnson outdueling Johan Santana was a fun game to watch.

9. Atlanta Braves
Previous Rank: 15
Record: 5-1
Rookie Jordan Schafer is off to a very good start going .348-2-3. Glavine getting hurt may be a blessing in disguise at it clears the path for stud Tommy Hanson to get the call. The NL East looks like it could be a 4-team race all summer if Chipper can stay healthy.

10. Minnesota Twins
Previous Rank: 7
Record: 3-4
This team really needs Joe Mauer back to provide some consistency in a lineup filled with streaky hitters. The bullpen hasn't caused problems yet, but it has not introduced a lot of confidence.

11. Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous Rank: 9
Record: 4-3
Kemp and Loney are off to good starts which when combined with Manny makes this a really dangerous lineup. Taking 2 out of 3 at Arizona was also a good sign.

12. Philadelphia Phillies
Previous Rank: 6
Record: 3-3
The poor starts by Hamels and Myers raises a lot of questions as they don't have any depth behind them. This team is going to need a lot of offense from Utley and Howard this year to repeat as division champs.

13. Detroit Tigers
Previous Rank: 17
Record: 4-3
Miguel Cabrera is determined not to repeat the slow start of last year and Armando Galarraga looks like the real deal. Pitching depth could be their downfall.

14. St. Louis Cardinals
Previous Rank: 20
Record: 5-2
If Carpenter stays healthy with Pujols this team is dangerous. They look to be the 2nd best team in the NL Central. It will be telling to see how they do when they aren't facing Pittsburgh or Houston.

15. Chicago White Sox
Previous Rank: 12
Record: 3-3
If they can ride the Bartolo Colon revival they can be dangerous. It helps when they got of hitting well. The lack of a leadoff hitter could be a problem down the road.

16. Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous Rank: 10
Record: 2-4
They better hope Brandon Webb gets healthy and returns to form or else this team does not stand a chance. The lineup is also off to a less than stellar start.

17. Milwaukee Brewers
Previous Rank: 13
Record: 2-4
The offense should produce a lot of runs but the rotation is a serious question mark. Jeff Suppan is not going to win them a division.

18. Texas Rangers
Previous Rank: 19
Record: 3-3
The offense is an absolute machine especially considering Chris Davis has gotten off to a terrible start, but the lack of pitching will stop them from competing in the AL West.

19. Oakland Athletics
Previous Rank: 16
Record: 2-4
They are relying on a way too young pitching staff and Matt Holliday is off to a slow start but Trevor Cahill looks like the real deal.

20. Cleveland Indians
Previous Rank: 11
Record: 1-5
The pitching staff is brutal giving up 49 runs in 6 games. Cliff Lee is not going to repeat as AL Cy Young. They are starting off very similar to Detroit last year.

21. Cincinnati Reds
Previous Rank: 18
Record: 2-3
They don't look ready to make a Rays-like jump this year but Aaron Harang's return to form is very good to see for Reds fans. The offense should look better when Bruce and Encarncion get going.

22. Seattle Mariners
Previous Rank: 26
Record: 5-2
If King Felix and Bedard stay healthy this will be a very annoying team to face as they both have amazing stuff, but they can't rely on Endy Chavez hitting .379.

23. Kansas City Royals
Previous Rank: 24
Record: 3-3
This team is not brutal but they don't have the look of a contender in the AL Central. Alex Gordon and Billy Butler are still complete disappointments.

24. Baltimore Orioles
Previous Rank: 29
Record: 4-2
To go 4-2 against the Rays and Yankees is certainly impressive the problem is that they will still have to face them plenty and they will have B.J. Upton and Alex Rodriguez. Prospect Adam Jones is off to a very good start.

25. Colorado Rockies
Previous Rank: 25
Record: 3-3
Troy Tulowitzki is off to a good start and Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jiminez had really good 1st starts, but they are not a competitor this year.

26. San Francisco Giants
Previous Rank: 22
Record: 2-4
Two bad starts by Lincecum are not really encouraging but he should be able to turn it around. The real problem is bad starts by Randy Johnson and Barry Zito.

27. San Diego Padres
Previous Rank: 28
Record: 5-2
I can not explain the start except that this team still has Jake Peavy and Chris Young. I am willing to bet they don't go 5-2 heading to face the Mets and Phillies.

28. Houston Astros
Previous Rank: 23
Record: 1-5
It is not fun for a bad team to start off with the Cubs and Cardinals, but this is a bad team that will likely be moving some key parts in Oswalt, Berkman and Carlos Lee.

29. Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous Rank: 30
Record: 3-3
Not a bad first week and if Zach Duke and Paul Maholm can repeat their starts this team may not be the worst in baseball.

30. Washington Nationals
Previous Rank: 27
Record: 0-6
This team is absolutely brutal. They have no pitching giving up 45 runs in 6 games so far. It is going to be a long summer in Washington.

Stud of the Week: 1B Miguel Cabrera, DET
Stats: .520 3 HR 10 RBI
Honorable Mention: Evan Longoria, Albert Pujols, Emilio Bonifacio, Kyle Lohse, Josh Johnson

Dud of the Week: LHP Carl Pavano, CLE
Stats: 1 IP 81.00 ERA 3 BB 6 HA
Dishonorable Mention: Andy LaRoche, Chris Davis, Scott Olson, Cole Hamels, Chien-Ming Wang

Twins Prospect Rankings - Week 1

1. 3B Danny Valencia AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 1
Age: 24
Stats: .286 0 HR 0 RBI
Showed off MLB ready glove during spring training and did not embarrass himself at the plate hitting .429

2. C Wilson Ramos AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 9
Age: 21
Stats: .176 1 HR 2 RBI
Has an absolute cannon of an arm, throwing out 3 of 4 stolen base attempts in spring training. Also hit .375 in spring training

3. OF Aaron Hicks Rookie - Elizabethton
Previous Rank: 2
Age: 19
Stats: N/A
Twins showed off their conservatism again by not sending Aaron Hicks to Beloit. He may not be as fortunate as Ben Revere who took advantage of injuries last year to dominate Beloit.

4. 3B Luke Hughes AAA - Rochester
Previous Rank: 4
Age: 24
Stats: .250 1 HR 4 RBI
Missed parts of spring training due to WBC, but showed the offensive game when he was around hitting .429. Issue for him is Valencia is much better defensively.

5. RHP Anthony Slama AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 5
Age: 24
Stats: 2 IP 0.00 ERA 3 K
Very impressive first outing in AA.

6. OF Ben Revere High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: 6
Age: 20
Stats: .111 0 HR 1 RBI 1 SB
Only 1 hit so far but already has 1 stolen base.

7. RHP Anthony Swarzak AAA - Rochester
Previous Rank: 7
Age: 23
Stats: 4 IP 0.00 ERA 4 K
Not a bad first start, but the ability of the Twins to get spot starts from Dickey, Duensing or Humber likely rules out Swarzak making a start this year. Pitched 3 shutout innings in spring training.

8. RHP Carlos Gutierrez High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: NR
Age: 22
Stats: 2 IP 0.00 ERA 2 K
Pitched a shutout inning for Puerto Rico in the WBC. The Twins think very highly of him and impressed following Scott Baker in his first appearance.

9. LHP Jose Mijares AAA - Rochester
Previous Rank: 3
Age: 24
Stats: 2 IP 0.00 ERA 2 K
Had an absolutely brutal spring with an ERA of 9.90 in 10 innings. Failed to make the team even though they gave him every chance to. If he can turn it around he will likely get the call but he has to avoid making this a lost season. First appearance in AAA was a good start.

10. RHP Shooter Hunt Low A - Beloit
Previous Rank: 8
Age: 22
Stats: 3.1 IP 8.10 ERA 1 K
First start of the year showcased what his issues are. He walked 4 batters in 3.1 innings. He has got to get control if he is going to showcase his amazing stuff.

Fell out of rankings: OF Angel Morales

Tragedy and Other News

• After throwing six shutout innings against the Oakland Athletics, 22-year old uber-prospect Nick Adenhart was killed in a hit-and-run accident after a driver ran a red light. This is a great tragedy to lose someone who was so young and future was so bright.
• Travis Busch has left the Gophers Basketball program. This is not a great surprise as there wasn't a scholarship for him next year and their also did not seem to be a lot of playing time for him also. Busch may not have been blessed with a lot of talent but he worked hard and contributed more than anyone thought he would when he transferred here from Cal-Poly.
• Royce White was named Mr. Basketball. The chairman of the award commented that he had the ability to score far more but chose to do whatever to make the team better and lead them to an undefeated season. For those that like to hate on Royce they fail to see how he came in to an already formed team and instead of making it his team and taking it over he found a role on the team that became one of the best in MSHSL history. I would look for him to do the same thing next year with the Gophers.
  
• I attended my first Twins game of the year last night. It was student night so I was way up in the Upper Level GA seats. Sitting 3 seats away from me was on Adam Weber and it was a shock in more than one way. He is listed by the Gophers at 6'3" 217. That is not true, he was shorter than me and at best he is 6'1" 210. He also had a less that stellar posse. You would expect the Big Ten quarterback would have a girl on each arm at a game but his posse was 5-6 guys who all looked to be 17 years old and seemed more likely to play D&D than football. Weber did have a good time and was a little drunk by end of the game.

Welcome to the 2009 Season Twins Fans

At roughly 9:55 pm on Tuesday, April 7th, The Twins 2009 season officially started. The problem is that they had played 17 innings that counted before that. Those 17 innings were filled with feeble at-bats and pitchers getting knocked around by a 39 year old Ken Griffey Jr. and Endy Chavez. It was brutal to watch and the Twins were as flat and lifeless as the fans. Then it happened, Gomez who already is taking much better at-bats coaxed a walk out of Brandon Morrow. Morrow then lost all control walking Kubel and Buscher (by the way I was suprised Gardenhire pinch hit for Punto). The Mariners brought in Miguel Batista but that was to no avail as Denard Span used his blazing speed to leg out a infield single and Alexi Casilla lined a single to center bringing in the tying and winning runs. In a single moment, Twins fans were reminded all over again why they love the Minnesota Twins. The question is now whether the Twins can play a full nine inning game. They should have a good chance of doing so against Carlos Silva tonight.

Way Too Early Reactions to the 2009 Twins

• Span does not look like he will regress into a AAA player. He just gives a quality at-bat every single time and with his speed gets a lot of hits he has no business getting. He is a very good lead-off hitter.
• Casilla and Punto might be the best double play combo in the league. They have looked very solid so far making a few amazing double plays.
• Gomez looks a lot better at the plate. He still takes a few bad swings but it isn't three in a row. He should have a much better year this year.
• Morneau looks off to another slow start. He didn't get a hit until his 5th game last year. He may start slow until Mauer gets back but he is still a lock for .290-20-100 at least.
• Crede may not be off to a quick start but him in the lineup is much more dangerous than Brian Buscher. He can hit a home run on any pitch. Buscher can hit a single on any pitch.
• Allowing opponents to bat .300 against him may catch up to Blackburn this year, I don't think he will be Silva bad but his ERA might be closer to 5.00 than 4.00.
• Jose Morales has not looked like a MLB player so far. I thought he could be a surprise and provide some offense but his at-bats so far have been brutal with 3 strikeouts in 4 at-bats. Did you know that he is actually older than Joe Mauer by two months. It seems like Mauer has been around for ever but he only turns 26 on April 19th.
  

The first two games have not screamed AL Central Champs but some of that can be attributed to Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard who are no slouches and could both win a Cy Young sometime in their careers. These next two games against sub-standard pitching should give us a better look at just where the offense is at.

It is a Great Day in Sports

My hand might suffer a little carpal tunnel tonight as I will be furiously switching between the NCAA National Championship and the Twins Season Opener. These are the days where I wish I had two TVs in the same room.

National Championship

If you watched UNC play MSU in Ford Field in Dec. 3rd in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge, you had two thoughts. North Carolina is unbeatable and will walk to a national title and MSU will not be back to Ford Field. Well, UNC has proven throughout the season that they can be beaten and MSU has clubbed and clawed it's way into a rematch.

Why UNC will win: They are far and away the most talented team in the NCAA. This team doesn't even rely or use Hansborough that much this year. This team when it focuses can beat any team by 20 points. They are determined to win after all coming back to avenge last year's loss to Kansas.

Why MSU will win: They are the most underrated 2 seed in the history of the tournament. People are acting as if this is some Cinderella story but they are a 2 seed and if they had won the Big Ten tournament they would have been a 1 seed. This team can play fast and they can play slow. They will outrebound any team by 15. This team played UNC before without Goran Suton who has been an absolute force this tournament and should be able to control Hansborough. This team has a decided home field advantage and plenty of momentum.

Who will win: Teams have overlooked MSU all tournament only to get smacked in the mouth. UNC will not be overlooking them but they have to be thinking they are overwhelming favorites after beating them in December. The difference comes down to two things. One is the coaching, Roy Williams is a good coach and a great recruiter, but Tom Izzo is a wizard. He has outcoached Bill Self, Rick Pitino and Jim Calhoun this year. Williams is just not the game coach that Izzo is. The other difference is defense. UNC has faced this team before but they are a completely different team with Suton in the game. They will be a tougher defense than UNC has seen all year and the one UNC weakness is that they are a little soft. If MSU starts out hot and gets a lead this could be a magical night in Detroit.

Michigan St. 75, UNC 71

Opening Day

One of the best days of the year will only be diminished by the Dome for one more time. That said there is plenty of excitement surrounding the 2009 Minnesota Twins. This should be a great game with the duel between Felix Hernandez and Liriano. Seattle might steal this game due to Hernandez but the Seattle Lineup with out Ichiro is a joke. Here are the opening day lineups:

Minnesota
LF Denard Span
2B Alexi Casilla
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
DH Jason Kubel
3B Joe Crede
CF Carlos Gomez
C Mike Redmond
SS Nick Punto

Seattle
LF Endy Chavez
CF Franklin Guetierrez
DH Mike Sweeney
3B Adrian Beltre
RF Ken Griffey Jr.
2B Jose Lopez
1B Russell Branyan
C Kenji Johjima
SS Yuniesky Betancourt

Every one is looking at Young sitting and trying to read into it and make something out of it. Someone had to sit in the first game and it was Delmon Young. That being said I'm not surprised it is Delmon Young. Gardenhire loves Cuddyer and I see Gardenhire giving him all the chances in the world. I would guess it is going to be a lot of rotating and I would expect Young will be in the lineup on Tuesday. In place of who in the lineup I have no idea but this thing should play itself out that by the middle of June we will have three regular starters in the outfield and the odd man out.

Preview Recap, Awards and Post Season Predictions

AL Central
Minnesota Twins (7)
Cleveland Indians (11)
Chicago White Sox (12)
Detroit Tigers (17)
Kansas City Royals (24)

AL East
Tampa Bay Rays (1)
Boston Red Sox (2)
New York Yankees (3)
Toronto Blue Jays (14)
Baltimore Orioles (29)

AL West
Los Angeles Angels (5)
Oakland Athletics (16)
Texas Rangers (19)
Seattle Mariners (26)

NL Central
Chicago Cubs (4)
Milwaukee Brewers (13)
Cincinnati Reds (18)
St. Louis Cardinals (20)
Houston Astros (23)
Pittsburgh Pirates (30)

NL East
Philadelphia Phillies (6)
New York Mets (8)
Atlanta Braves (15)
Florida Marlins (21)
Washington Nationals (27)

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers (9)
Arizona Diamondbacks (10)
San Francisco Giants (22)
Colorado Rockies (25)
San Diego Padres (28)

LDS
Rays over Twins in 4 games
Red Sox over Angels in 3 games
Phillies over Dodgers in 5 games
Cubs over Mets in 4 games

LCS
Rays over Red Sox in 6 games
Cubs over Phillies in 7 games

World Series
Rays over Cubs in 5 games

AL Awards
ROY: David Price, Tampa Bay
Cy Young: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston
MVP: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay

NL Awards
ROY: Cameron Maybin, Florida
Cy Young: Brandon Webb, Arizona
MVP: Ryan Howard, Philadelphia

#1 Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays
Last Year: 97-65 1st in AL East, Lost to Philadelphia in WS
This Year: 1st in AL East


There are those out there who claim last year was a fluke and that they will fall back to their "rightful" place as a sub .500 team at the bottom of the division. It is too bad those people have no idea what they are talking about. The actually in my opinion blossomed a year early. They won last year with Crawford injured and having a subpar year, Upton struggled with a torn labrum. Longoria didn't start until May, and Price wasn't even on the squad until the playoffs. This is supposed to be their year, Longoria is here for a whole year and Price will be able to join the rotation. Throw in Pat Burrell and you have the best team in the Major Leagues in 2009.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
2B Aki Iwamura .279 6 HR 45 RBI
LF Carl Crawford .307 15 HR 72 RBI 41 SB
CF B.J. Upton .292 26 HR 93 RBI 35 SB
3B Evan Longoria .289 38 HR 123 RBI
1B Carlos Pena .251 35 HR 108 RBI
DH Pat Burrell .252 31 HR 88 RBI
C Dioner Navarro .287 9 HR 59 RBI
RF Gabe Gross .242 15 HR 44 RBI
SS Jason Bartlett .280 2 HR 41 RBI 22 SB

Rotation
RHP James Shields 16-8 3.45 ERA 170 K
LHP Scott Kazmir 14-7 3.40 ERA 174 K
RHP Matt Garza 14-8 3.34 ERA 154 K
RHP Andy Sonnanstine 14-10 4.12 ERA 130 K
LHP David Price 13-5 3.47 ERA 148 K

CP RHP Troy Percival 4.34 ERA 32 SV 40 K

I know Upton is not ready for Opening Day and Price is starting in AAA, but this is how the team will look for the majority of the year and why they are the best team.

Best Case Scenario: Longoria doesn't face a sophomore slump and puts up MVP numbers. Upton stays healthy and builds off the postseason in which he hit 7 HRs in 66 at-bats. Crawford returns to all-star form. Kazmir decides to pitch into the 6th inning this year by not walking the bases full every inning. Garza builds off post season and becomes an all-star caliber pitcher. Price comes up and runs away with the AL ROY. The Rays find an answer in the closer role between Percival, Isringhausen and who ever is actually healthy. This team wins the AL East again and takes it a step farther by winning the World Series in the worst stadium known to man.

Worst Case Scenario: The injury bug hits the Rays hard. Kazmir gets injured or only pitches 140 innings. The bullpen collapses with the inability to find a closer and hold onto a lead. Garza still is inconsistent, and Price is not ready to be a dominant starter yet. This team struggles to live up to expectations on the team for the first time ever and struggle with the ultra-competitive AL East. This team finishes 3rd in the AL East and misses the playoffs.

Player Most Important to Success: Matt Garza. Garza has the stuff to be a front-line ace as he has been projected to be since he was called up with the Twins in 2006. He has slowly but surely moved closer to his potential but showed glimpses of what he can be in the playoffs last year. If the Rays are going to win the AL East again this year they are going to need Garza to reach his potential. If he becomes an All-Star pitcher this team's rotation will be able to match up pound for pound with the Yankees and Red Sox staffs, and then the Rays superior lineup will put them over the top and into the World Series again.

Outlook: This lineup is ridiculous. They have 4 players who have the potential to hit 30 home runs and 2 in Pena and Longoria who have the potential to hit 40. The only possible whole in the lineup is Right Field but that shouldn't be a huge problem with Gabe Gross and Matt Joyce platooning. I don't see how a pitcher can go through this lineup without giving up at least a run every time. The rotation isn't bad at all. If Price comes in and makes a Liriano/Linecum splash this team might run away with the division. The only thing I can see tripping this team up is bullpen issues or if the injury bug riddles this team. Last year was a prelude to the explosion we should see this year. Last year was not a fluke this Rays team is around to stay and should be a player in the AL East for years to come.

If You Weren't Excited About Opening Day Enough

You have even more reasons to be pumped about Monday's opening day. Due to Scott Baker being put on the DL as a precaution, Twins fans will be treated to a matchup of Francisco Liriano versus Felix Hernandez. The Franchise versus King Felix. Two of the youngest and brightest stars in the Majors will get the season off with a bang. I have never wished for a weekend to end as much as this weekend. 2009 is about to go down and it should be an exciting and possibly great season, and Liriano versus Felix is the perfect way to kick off the season.

#2 Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox
Last Year: 95-67 2nd in AL East, Lost in ALCS to Tampa Bay
This Year: 2nd in AL East


The Red Sox have gone from a team of lovable losers to an almost dynasty in this decade. Last year they fell just short of winning their 3rd title in 5 years. They have also done a beautiful job of slowly transitioning from the team of Manny, Ortiz, Pedro and Schilling a problem that the Yankees are facing. This question is if they have fully transformed into another title team or if the younger players still need more seasoning.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
CF Jacoby Ellsbury .294 11 HR 53 RBI 55 SB
2B Dustin Pedroia .312 17 HR 78 RBI 23 SB
DH David Ortiz .274 27 HR 103 RBI
1B Kevin Youkilis .303 24 HR 108 RBI
RF J.D. Drew .284 21 HR 68 RBI
LF Jason Bay .282 30 HR 97 RBI
3B Mike Lowell .281 17 HR 70 RBI
SS Jed Lowrie .263 5 HR 54 RBI
C Jason Varitek .231 10 HR 42 RBI

Rotation
RHP Josh Beckett 18-11 3.78 ERA 183 K
RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka 18-7 2.72 ERA 188 K
LHP Jon Lester 18-8 3.09 ERA 148 K
RHP Brad Penny 13-9 4.17 ERA 130 K
RHP Tim Wakefield 10-13 4.75 ERA 112 K

CP RHP Jonathan Papelbon 2.56 ERA 39 SV 80 K

Best Case Scenario: Pedroia and Youkillis repeat career years of last year. Beckett and Dice-K stay healthy and dominant. Penny gets healthy and pitches like he cares again. Ortiz gets healthy and has a last hurrah hitting 35-40 home runs. Varitek still is a major league catcher. Ellsbury fully blooms into the Johnny Damon player he is supposed to be. This team wins the AL East and cruises to a 3rd World Series in 6 years.

Worst Case Scenario: Ortiz and Lowell struggle to contribute all year. Drew is an injured disappointment once again. Dice-K still has an aversion to throwing strikes and continues to throw 5 shutout innings with 110 pitches. Beckett gets a blister on every finger. Pedroia and Youkillis don't perform as well as last year. Prospects aren't ready to fill in for injuries. This team finishes third in the AL East and misses the playoffs.

Player Most Important to Success: David Ortiz. Ortiz could be considered the main reason for the two World Series titles. Manny helped for sure but Ortiz was an absolute force in the middle and had multiple huge clutch hits. He has struggled the past two years with injuries hitting 58 home runs in the past two year while he had hit 54 in 2006. He is only 33 years old so it isn't as if the sun has set on his career. He still possibly has another 40 home runs season left in him. This team has a good lineup 1-9 but they need Ortiz to be the slugger and fear-inducer of 2006 for this lineup to truly sing and make those around him even more effective.

Outlook: The Red Sox are built for years to come. They have integrated studs Ellsbury and Pedroria into the lineup and Lester and Papelbon into the pitching staff easily. If a couple pitchers go down this year, no problem they have Clay Bucholz (who has a MLB no-hitter) and Justin Masterson waiting in the wings. If Youkilis or Ortiz goes down they have sluggers Lars Anderson or Chris Carter ready to step up. The question is not whether this team is built for the long-run but whether this will be a special year. They have the best pitching rotation in the Majors, a shut-down closer in Papelbon and the lineup is very solid. The only thing holding them back is they don't have a certain 30-40 home run guy in the middle of the lineup and Lowell and Varitek have seen better days. If Ortiz can return to his old self it may be different but those minute differences will cost them the AL East title but they will still be very difficult in the playoffs. Given that pitching staff they have, they are very dangerous come October to win another World Series.

#3 New York Yankees

New York Yankees
Last Year: 89-73 3rd in AL East
This Year: 3rd in AL East


Last Year in Joe Girardi's first year as manager of the Yankees they finished in 3rd place for their worst finish since 1992. The front office answered with vengeance signing big free agents in Sabathia, Burnett and Teixeira. The question is whether it will be enough to compete in the ridiculously competitive AL East. In fact just making the playoffs might be the hardest part of winning their 27th World Series title.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
SS Derek Jeter .294 10 HR 62 RBI
LF Johnny Damon .289 13 HR 68 RBI 22 SB
1B Mark Teixeira .312 36 HR 124 RBI
DH Hideki Matsui .282 20 HR 94 RBI
RF Xavier Nady .291 26 HR 96 RBI
C Jorge Posada .270 14 HR 78 RBI
2B Robinson Cano .287 16 HR 81 RBI
3B Cody Ransom .216 6 HR 23 RBI
CF Brett Gardner .240 3 HR 42 RBI

Other Player: Alex Rodriguez .294 26 HR 92 RBI

Rotation
LHP C.C. Sabathia 17-11 3.24 ERA 213 K
RHP A.J. Burnett 16-10 3.79 ERA 205 K
RHP Chien-Ming Wang 17-9 3.78 ERA 102 K
LHP Andy Pettitte 12-14 4.79 ERA 149 K
RHP Joba Chamberlain 12-9 3.67 ERA 189 K

CP RHP Mariano Rivera 2.29 ERA 37 SV 72 K

Best Case Scenario: Alex Rodriguez comes back before May and is business as usual. Aging players Jeter, Damon, Matsui and Posada all stay healthy and contribute. Sabathia stays healthy after pitching 250 innings last year and is just as effective competing for a Cy Young award. Somehow A.J. Burnett gets a big contract and still decides to stay healthy and pitch 180 innings. They finally stick with Chamberlain in the rotation and he proves he can be a starter. This team wins the AL East and wins the World Series.

Worst Case Scenario: Alex Rodriguez has a lost year with the hip injury leaving a huge void in the suddenly weak Yankee lineup. The old parts of the lineup spend more time on the DL than the lineup. Sabathia and Burnett fail to live up to the contract and the Yankees panic causing more harm. This team finishes third in the AL East and misses the playoffs for back-to-back years.

Player Most Important to Success: Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod has quite the rough spring so far. He was found to have taken steroids and he has hurt is hip and should be out until May. The question is whether he will be back in May and how effective he will be when he gets back. Chase Utley and Mike Lowell both struggled coming back from hip injuries. If he is ineffective and not vintage A-Rod this team doesn't stand a chance. In April they will be counting on 34-year old Hideki Matsui. This lineup without A-Rod being A-Rod is mediocre surrounded with aging, injury-prone players.

Outlook: This team has issues that could lead to a less than stellar introduction to the new Yankee Stadium. The rotation should be fine with Hughes and Kennedy ready to fill in for any injuries or Andy Pettitte, but the bullpen and lineup are serious problems. With Joba in the rotation who get the ball to Rivera. Demaso Marte? Edwar Ramirez? Some guy named Phil Coke? They will need the starters to pitch 8 innings all year or have Rivera pitch two innings every game. The lineup has the potential to be a disaster if A-Rod has a lost year. Posada is 37 and missed most of last year, Damon is 35 and is no longer the leadoff hitter, Jeter is 34 and has started a steep decline, Matsui 34 and has only been healthy 1 of the last 3 years, even A-Rod's backup Cody Ransom is 33. The other players are questions also. Cano is coming off a bad year and Gardner is an unproven rookie.The bottom line is they still have more questions than they have answers. Bottom line is both the Rays and Sox have a better lineup and the Sox have better pitching. This team would win the division in any other division but in the AL East that equals 3rd place and another disappointing year in the Bronx.