Twins Mid-Season Projections

With the mid-way point of the season upon us it is a good time to project the Twins final stats if they have a second half like the first half. In some cases that would be a good thing and in other a disaster. Here are the current projections for your Minnesota Twins:

Joe Mauer: .390 28 HR 90 RBI
If anyone expects these to be his final numbers they are stupid. He had a once in a lifetime May and came back to reality in June going .353-3-11. While he may not put up those numbers he is well on his way to his 3rd batting title and has been healthy since coming back in May.
Second Half: May reach 20 home runs and may bat .350 but will not be able to repeat first half stats.

Justin Morneau: .320 40 HR 134 RBI
A lot of attention has been paid to Mauer and his prowess, but what is getting lost in the shuffle is Morneau is having one of his best years and another MVP-caliber year. He has typically lost a little power in the second half so I don't see 40 home runs happening but I do see .320 average and 130 RBIs.
Second Half: May see a dip in power with around 30-35 home runs but the production should still be there.

Jason Kubel: .300 26 HR 84 RBI
Now that he is four years removed from his knee injury he has finally reached the potential the Twins saw in him when went .300-2-7 as a September call-up in 2004. It could be argued that he is the most productive DH the Twins have had.
Second Half: As long as he doesn't face too many lefties he is right on target.

Michael Cuddyer: .280 26 HR 90 RBI
After an injury filled and disappointing 2008, there were many fans (including me) who thought he should be the odd man out in the outfield. He has proved them wrong by returning to 2006 Michael Cuddyer.
Second Half: If healthy he can reach projections.

Joe Crede: .230 24 HR 72 RBI
He was brought in to be the power source and be 2nd on the team in home runs. He is currently 5th on the team but has not been a disappointment at all. There isn't anyone who would argue that he is a significant upgrade from Brian Buscher. He has provided just what the Twins hoped he would provide.
Second Half: He could get really hot and hit near 30 home runs or go and the DL and not do anything. I think he will end up .240-26-80.

Denard Span: .288 8 HR 52 RBI 26 SB
He has had some issues with dizzy spells but he has shown that last year was not a fluke. He is the ideal leadoff hitter. He is patient, doesn't strike out and has speed.
Second Half: If the dizzy spells don't come back I could see a big second half for him with him batting around .300.

Brendan Harris: .274 8 HR 44 RBI
Everyone seems to be praising him for his contribution this year, but in his last year with Tampa he went .286-12-59 and he wasn't batting in front of Mauer and Morneau. Yes, he is our best offensive option in the middle infield but that isn't much of a claim on this team.
Second Half: He should get plenty of at-bats and he should be able to duplicate 1st half and hopefully better.

Delmon Young: .264 6 HR 48 RBI
Those who were disappointed with last years (.290-10-69) have been truly disappointed this year so far. Yes, he dealt with the loss of his mother but the production has been brutal. Has actually shown some signs of improvement recently with 6 extra base hits in his last 8 games compared to 3 extra base hits in his previous 44 games.
Second Half: It is almost impossible for him to not do better than his first half. The Twins aren't asking much from their #7 hitter, just hoping that he will provide some power and run production.

Carlos Gomez: .224 2 HR 24 RBI 14 SB
This has been a lost season for the 23 year old so far. He has become the 4th outfielder. He is on pace for only 348 at-bats compared to 577 last year. They need to figure out how to use him better because he is never going to realize his potential on the bench. It only makes him try to do more in his at-bats.
Second Half: Barring an injury, I don't see a lot of at-bats coming his way especially if Delmon starts to produce. His talent is being wasted.

Nick Punto: .217 0 HR 32 RBI 14 SB
Yes, he is good defensively but he is absolutely worthless at the plate. He has 4 extra base hits. Only the Twins would have a career .250 hitter with 11 career home runs in 2,018 at bats as an everyday infielder.
Second Half: More of the same.

Matt Tolbert: .184 2 HR 22 RBI
It is bad enough to have one Nick Punto, but this team has two of them with Matt Tolbert. He is simply not a major league infielder.
Second Half: Twins having to be hoping that Casilla turns it around so they can send Tolbert back to Rochester.

Other projections not worth commenting on:
Alexi Casilla: .180-0-10
Brian Buscher: .198-4-18
Mike Redmond: .229-0-8
Jose Morales: .350-0-4

It is a Great Day in Sports

My hand might suffer a little carpal tunnel tonight as I will be furiously switching between the NCAA National Championship and the Twins Season Opener. These are the days where I wish I had two TVs in the same room.

National Championship

If you watched UNC play MSU in Ford Field in Dec. 3rd in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge, you had two thoughts. North Carolina is unbeatable and will walk to a national title and MSU will not be back to Ford Field. Well, UNC has proven throughout the season that they can be beaten and MSU has clubbed and clawed it's way into a rematch.

Why UNC will win: They are far and away the most talented team in the NCAA. This team doesn't even rely or use Hansborough that much this year. This team when it focuses can beat any team by 20 points. They are determined to win after all coming back to avenge last year's loss to Kansas.

Why MSU will win: They are the most underrated 2 seed in the history of the tournament. People are acting as if this is some Cinderella story but they are a 2 seed and if they had won the Big Ten tournament they would have been a 1 seed. This team can play fast and they can play slow. They will outrebound any team by 15. This team played UNC before without Goran Suton who has been an absolute force this tournament and should be able to control Hansborough. This team has a decided home field advantage and plenty of momentum.

Who will win: Teams have overlooked MSU all tournament only to get smacked in the mouth. UNC will not be overlooking them but they have to be thinking they are overwhelming favorites after beating them in December. The difference comes down to two things. One is the coaching, Roy Williams is a good coach and a great recruiter, but Tom Izzo is a wizard. He has outcoached Bill Self, Rick Pitino and Jim Calhoun this year. Williams is just not the game coach that Izzo is. The other difference is defense. UNC has faced this team before but they are a completely different team with Suton in the game. They will be a tougher defense than UNC has seen all year and the one UNC weakness is that they are a little soft. If MSU starts out hot and gets a lead this could be a magical night in Detroit.

Michigan St. 75, UNC 71

Opening Day

One of the best days of the year will only be diminished by the Dome for one more time. That said there is plenty of excitement surrounding the 2009 Minnesota Twins. This should be a great game with the duel between Felix Hernandez and Liriano. Seattle might steal this game due to Hernandez but the Seattle Lineup with out Ichiro is a joke. Here are the opening day lineups:

Minnesota
LF Denard Span
2B Alexi Casilla
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
DH Jason Kubel
3B Joe Crede
CF Carlos Gomez
C Mike Redmond
SS Nick Punto

Seattle
LF Endy Chavez
CF Franklin Guetierrez
DH Mike Sweeney
3B Adrian Beltre
RF Ken Griffey Jr.
2B Jose Lopez
1B Russell Branyan
C Kenji Johjima
SS Yuniesky Betancourt

Every one is looking at Young sitting and trying to read into it and make something out of it. Someone had to sit in the first game and it was Delmon Young. That being said I'm not surprised it is Delmon Young. Gardenhire loves Cuddyer and I see Gardenhire giving him all the chances in the world. I would guess it is going to be a lot of rotating and I would expect Young will be in the lineup on Tuesday. In place of who in the lineup I have no idea but this thing should play itself out that by the middle of June we will have three regular starters in the outfield and the odd man out.

Thursday Ranting

I don't know whether it is due to the blizzard while it should be spring or not but I'm in the mood for a good ol' rant so here we go:

• Now this may be because I was laid off from the Minnesota Daily over the summer and they have also been jerking around my buddy in the sports department but the paper is delving into an absolutely sub-par student paper. It is poorly written and the students are just there to be paid and put it on their resume. They proved my point today with an article about how the reason for the Gophers energy on Sunday was the return of one Kevin Payton. Without the Daily I would not have known that the reason for the stingy defense and effort was due to the guy who came in the final minute and has yet to score this year. The title is even worse. Gophers feeling energized as Payton returns to the floor. He is never on the floor unless they have a 20 point lead or it is warm-ups. The argument the article makes is that he talks and is a vocal leader. Anyone can talk. Maybe the Gophers should get Chris Tucker to practice with them. He is probably just as good at basketball and he does a lot of talking. I guess if we are playing in March we all have Kevin Payton to thank.

• On the Star Tribune the Twins beat writer posted the lineups for the Twins opening spring game against Boston. Here is a sampling of some of the comments:
  
• I don't like Cuddy batting 4th not high enough average
• Why is LNP (Nick Punto) batting 2nd and why is Cuddy in RF?
• You still want a leadoff-type hitter to lead off and a cleanup-type hitter to hit cleanup. So why bat Morneau third? ST is to make guys comfortable. Why screw with his routine?
• The idiot (Gardenhire) just couldn't resist but to bat Punto 2nd

• I do not get the Twins fans who seem to only be fans to complain. I'm not saying I love everything the Twins did but why search for reasons to complain. Punto and Morneau were batting higher to get more at bats before they leave for the WBC. One poster was adamant we were screwing with Morneau by batting him 3rd instead of clean-up. First off he won MVP hitting 5th so I think he can hit anywhere in the lineup. He also didn't complain about Nathan pitching in the 4th. Spring Training wins and losses mean actually nothing and to complain about the lineup means you need either a girlfriend, a job, or a hobby. The complaints about Gardenhire I also don't get. The Twins have won 4 division titles in his 7 years as coach. 2007 is the only year they finished below .500 at 79-83. If you respond but we expect more than you are an idiot. We have had the most consistent success this decade by a team not in New York or Boston. He is coming off a season in which he took a team predicted to finish 4th or 5th in the division, losing Santana and Hunter. He finished with 88 wins for a team that finished last in the AL in home runs and had Scott Baker as the elder statesman on the starting pitching staff. The Twins consistently do better than projections or pre-season picks except for maybe the 2007 season. This team is young, fast, and has probably the best line-up they have had under Gardenhire. So please say the bitterness and armchair managing until at least June.

That helped for awhile I'm sure after the Gophers come out flat against Illinois I will be in the mood for more ranting. We shall see.