Twins Mid-Season Projections

With the mid-way point of the season upon us it is a good time to project the Twins final stats if they have a second half like the first half. In some cases that would be a good thing and in other a disaster. Here are the current projections for your Minnesota Twins:

Joe Mauer: .390 28 HR 90 RBI
If anyone expects these to be his final numbers they are stupid. He had a once in a lifetime May and came back to reality in June going .353-3-11. While he may not put up those numbers he is well on his way to his 3rd batting title and has been healthy since coming back in May.
Second Half: May reach 20 home runs and may bat .350 but will not be able to repeat first half stats.

Justin Morneau: .320 40 HR 134 RBI
A lot of attention has been paid to Mauer and his prowess, but what is getting lost in the shuffle is Morneau is having one of his best years and another MVP-caliber year. He has typically lost a little power in the second half so I don't see 40 home runs happening but I do see .320 average and 130 RBIs.
Second Half: May see a dip in power with around 30-35 home runs but the production should still be there.

Jason Kubel: .300 26 HR 84 RBI
Now that he is four years removed from his knee injury he has finally reached the potential the Twins saw in him when went .300-2-7 as a September call-up in 2004. It could be argued that he is the most productive DH the Twins have had.
Second Half: As long as he doesn't face too many lefties he is right on target.

Michael Cuddyer: .280 26 HR 90 RBI
After an injury filled and disappointing 2008, there were many fans (including me) who thought he should be the odd man out in the outfield. He has proved them wrong by returning to 2006 Michael Cuddyer.
Second Half: If healthy he can reach projections.

Joe Crede: .230 24 HR 72 RBI
He was brought in to be the power source and be 2nd on the team in home runs. He is currently 5th on the team but has not been a disappointment at all. There isn't anyone who would argue that he is a significant upgrade from Brian Buscher. He has provided just what the Twins hoped he would provide.
Second Half: He could get really hot and hit near 30 home runs or go and the DL and not do anything. I think he will end up .240-26-80.

Denard Span: .288 8 HR 52 RBI 26 SB
He has had some issues with dizzy spells but he has shown that last year was not a fluke. He is the ideal leadoff hitter. He is patient, doesn't strike out and has speed.
Second Half: If the dizzy spells don't come back I could see a big second half for him with him batting around .300.

Brendan Harris: .274 8 HR 44 RBI
Everyone seems to be praising him for his contribution this year, but in his last year with Tampa he went .286-12-59 and he wasn't batting in front of Mauer and Morneau. Yes, he is our best offensive option in the middle infield but that isn't much of a claim on this team.
Second Half: He should get plenty of at-bats and he should be able to duplicate 1st half and hopefully better.

Delmon Young: .264 6 HR 48 RBI
Those who were disappointed with last years (.290-10-69) have been truly disappointed this year so far. Yes, he dealt with the loss of his mother but the production has been brutal. Has actually shown some signs of improvement recently with 6 extra base hits in his last 8 games compared to 3 extra base hits in his previous 44 games.
Second Half: It is almost impossible for him to not do better than his first half. The Twins aren't asking much from their #7 hitter, just hoping that he will provide some power and run production.

Carlos Gomez: .224 2 HR 24 RBI 14 SB
This has been a lost season for the 23 year old so far. He has become the 4th outfielder. He is on pace for only 348 at-bats compared to 577 last year. They need to figure out how to use him better because he is never going to realize his potential on the bench. It only makes him try to do more in his at-bats.
Second Half: Barring an injury, I don't see a lot of at-bats coming his way especially if Delmon starts to produce. His talent is being wasted.

Nick Punto: .217 0 HR 32 RBI 14 SB
Yes, he is good defensively but he is absolutely worthless at the plate. He has 4 extra base hits. Only the Twins would have a career .250 hitter with 11 career home runs in 2,018 at bats as an everyday infielder.
Second Half: More of the same.

Matt Tolbert: .184 2 HR 22 RBI
It is bad enough to have one Nick Punto, but this team has two of them with Matt Tolbert. He is simply not a major league infielder.
Second Half: Twins having to be hoping that Casilla turns it around so they can send Tolbert back to Rochester.

Other projections not worth commenting on:
Alexi Casilla: .180-0-10
Brian Buscher: .198-4-18
Mike Redmond: .229-0-8
Jose Morales: .350-0-4

Welcome to the 2009 Season Twins Fans

At roughly 9:55 pm on Tuesday, April 7th, The Twins 2009 season officially started. The problem is that they had played 17 innings that counted before that. Those 17 innings were filled with feeble at-bats and pitchers getting knocked around by a 39 year old Ken Griffey Jr. and Endy Chavez. It was brutal to watch and the Twins were as flat and lifeless as the fans. Then it happened, Gomez who already is taking much better at-bats coaxed a walk out of Brandon Morrow. Morrow then lost all control walking Kubel and Buscher (by the way I was suprised Gardenhire pinch hit for Punto). The Mariners brought in Miguel Batista but that was to no avail as Denard Span used his blazing speed to leg out a infield single and Alexi Casilla lined a single to center bringing in the tying and winning runs. In a single moment, Twins fans were reminded all over again why they love the Minnesota Twins. The question is now whether the Twins can play a full nine inning game. They should have a good chance of doing so against Carlos Silva tonight.

Way Too Early Reactions to the 2009 Twins

• Span does not look like he will regress into a AAA player. He just gives a quality at-bat every single time and with his speed gets a lot of hits he has no business getting. He is a very good lead-off hitter.
• Casilla and Punto might be the best double play combo in the league. They have looked very solid so far making a few amazing double plays.
• Gomez looks a lot better at the plate. He still takes a few bad swings but it isn't three in a row. He should have a much better year this year.
• Morneau looks off to another slow start. He didn't get a hit until his 5th game last year. He may start slow until Mauer gets back but he is still a lock for .290-20-100 at least.
• Crede may not be off to a quick start but him in the lineup is much more dangerous than Brian Buscher. He can hit a home run on any pitch. Buscher can hit a single on any pitch.
• Allowing opponents to bat .300 against him may catch up to Blackburn this year, I don't think he will be Silva bad but his ERA might be closer to 5.00 than 4.00.
• Jose Morales has not looked like a MLB player so far. I thought he could be a surprise and provide some offense but his at-bats so far have been brutal with 3 strikeouts in 4 at-bats. Did you know that he is actually older than Joe Mauer by two months. It seems like Mauer has been around for ever but he only turns 26 on April 19th.
  

The first two games have not screamed AL Central Champs but some of that can be attributed to Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard who are no slouches and could both win a Cy Young sometime in their careers. These next two games against sub-standard pitching should give us a better look at just where the offense is at.

#7 Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins
Last Year: 88-75 2nd in AL Central
This Year: 1st in AL Central



Last year the expectations were low. They had lost Johan Santana and Torii Hunter. The pitching rotation had limited experience and the lineup had a lot of youth with Carlos Gomez leading off. They surprised a lot of people by playing well all summer. They just missed out on the playoffs by losing a coin flip and then losing the tiebreaker 1-0 to Chicago. They had a very quiet winter until they signed Joe Crede in February to shore up the hole at 3rd base. This team has the youth, speed and ability to take the next step and win the division for the 5th time in 8 years.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
RF Denard Span .286 7 HR 54 RBI 27 SB
2B Alexi Casilla .274 7 HR 61 RBI 17 SB
DH Jason Kubel .276 24 HR 86 RBI
1B Justin Morneau .308 32 HR 134 RBI
3B Joe Crede .254 24 HR 79 RBI
LF Delmon Young .296 17 HR 77 RBI
C Mike Redmond .280 0 HR 27 RBI
SS Nick Punto .272 2 HR 34 RBI
CF Carlos Gomez .267 11 HR 66 RBI 41 SB

Other Players
RF Michael Cuddyer .271 15 HR 73 RBI
C Joe Mauer .317 9 HR 72 RBI

Rotation
RHP Scott Baker 13-6 3.67 ERA 148 K
LHP Francisco Liriano 15-7 2.93 ERA 171 K
RHP Kevin Slowey 11-8 3.92 ERA 132 K
LHP Glen Perkins 12-9 4.24 ERA 98 K
RHP Nick Blackburn 12-10 4.15 ERA 104 K

CP RHP Joe Nathan 1.40 ERA 41 SV 77 K

Best Case Scenario: Joe Crede stays healthy and is an All-Star Third Baseman. Joe Mauer get healthy and stays healthy contending for a third batting title. Span and Casilla don't regress off of surprise success last year. Young and Gomez continue to mature and develop. Liriano builds off his second half success last year and returns to the dominant starter he was in 2006. The bullpen becomes the typical Twins bullpen again instead of the mess it was down the stretch last year. The team cruises to an AL Central title and gets to the ALCS.

Worst Case Scenario: Span and Casilla regress becoming .240 hitters, Joe Mauer never gets fully healthy and Redmond gets 300 at-bats. Crede's back flares up leaving the Twins to need Buscher to play every day. Gomez still can't settle down and swings at anything thrown to him. Liriano's arm troubles spark up again. The bullpen is a mess and can't get the lead to Joe Nathan. This team finishes around .500 and 3rd in the AL Central.

Player Most Important to Success: Francisco Liriano. Liriano was absolutely dominant in 2006 outpitching Johan Santana who won the Cy Young that year. He then went down with Tommy John surgery and missed 2007. He was rushed back before he was ready in 2008 and was crushed. It is often forgotten that when he came back from AAA in July he went 5-1 with an ERA of 3.02 in his last 10 starts. It is typically said that you don't get fully back from Tommy John until the second year. He has pitched very well this spring and looks to be ready to claim back his crown as The Franchise. The Twins rotation is full of good pitchers who give you a chance to win but Liriano is the one pitcher who can win a game for you. That is something you need especially if you hope to do something in October. Other players: Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and Denard Span.

Outlook: Before the signing of Joe Crede there was little hype surrounding this team which I did not get. This was a very young team that was returning everyone from a team that won 88 games. If Mauer comes back and Crede stays healthy this should be the best Twins lineup they have had since 1991. They have 5 pitchers who are all capable of giving the team a quality start. One thing they need to do this year is pitch deeper into the game so the bullpen doesn't get as taxed as it did last year. They have some possible issues. Span and Casilla were pleasant surprises last year that might turn out to be one year wonders ala Lew Ford and Luis Rivas. This team can hold up for a little while without Mauer but they won't be able to go for an extended amount of time. This team also still has bullpen issues that were not addressed especially if Jose Mijares doesn't do anything this year. This team should definitely contend for the division title and win it but the question is whether this team can compete with the AL East and be more than a sweep in the ALDS. This still should a fun year for Twins fans and it is a shame it still has to be spent in the Metrodome.

Joe Crede is a Minnesota Twin

Bill Smith and the Twins front office awoke from their slumber and made a great move signing Joe Crede to a one year deal. It is a very low-risk high reward deal. It has a 2.5 million dollar base and if he stays healthy and produces he will get 7 million. He fills the one weakness in the lineup outside of Nick Punto at shortstop. There is also reports that the Twins have made an offer to Juan Cruz. The Twins may not have made a lot of moves this offseason but this team is in good shape and has to be considered the favorite to win the AL Central. To perk your excitement here is the potential Opening Day lineup.
LF Denard Span
2B Alexi Casilla
C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Kubel
3B Joe Crede
SS Nick Punto
CF Carlos Gomez
That is what I think Gardenhire wants but here is what I believe is their best lineup:
CF Carlos Gomez
2B Alexi Casilla
C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
3B Joe Crede
DH Jason Kubel
LF Delmon Young
RF Michael Cuddyer
SS Nick Punto/ Brendan Harris

Baseball Fever and Updates

Gophers basketball delayed it a little but it finally has hit me. I've got baseball fever. February is the worst month in sports. Football is over, NBA and NHL are playing meaningless games, College Basketball is spent just hoping March will show up and same with Baseball. The three readers of this blog will notice a sharp turn in material once March hits. I love Gophers sports but I am married to baseball.

There is a lot of talk about the Twins signing Joe Crede. To me this is a no brainer. This isn't similar to Craig Monroe and Rondell White were we hope we hit the lottery. True he has not played a full season since 2006, but he will only be 31 in April and last year in only 335 ABs he hit 17 hrs. That is a home run every 20 at bats. For comparison Brendan Harris, the current 3rd baseman hit one every 62 at bats and superstar Justin Morneau only hit one every 27 at bats. That is pretty impressive for someone not healthy. In his last full healthy season he hit 30 hrs and batted .284. I think that would work in our lineup, especially since adding him would make Kubel or Delmon Young a 7 hitter or in some cases an 8 hitter. The only lineup weakness would be Punto at shortstop. Even if he does get hurt we do have insurance in Harris, Buscher and maybe Luke Hughes.

Gopher Monday Update

Despite all the doom and gloom surrounding the Gophers squad if the season ended today according to ESPN, they would be a 9 seed playing Dayton. There RPI is still 36 and while that is not great that is an RPI that gets them into the tournament. If they win their home games (Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Michigan) they will be in but a win at Michigan on Thursday will be nice.

Stats of the Day

• .275 11 hrs 96 rbi: Combined production of Buscher and Harris last year with 652 at bats. In 335 at bats Crede went .248 17 hrs 55 rbi.
  
• 41.2%: The Gophers shooting in Big Ten games this year. 2nd worse in Big Ten. Only team worse is Michigan at 39.6%.
• 33.6%: 3-pt shooting by the Gophers in Big Ten games. 3rd worse in Big Ten. Michigan worst at 29.4%. I think we are in store for another ugly game on Thursday.

Video of the Day

While it is a great video and very funny it is truly humbling to know that a 7' 1" 325 37-year old man is a better dancer than I am or will ever be but enjoy Shaqtus.

YouTube - Shaq Dancing With JabbaWockeeZ! [HD]