MLB Power Rankings - Week 1

(note: This ranking is not based only on record this early in the year. It is a combination of expectations and results. As the season progresses this will change.)

1. Tampa Bay Rays
Previous Rank: 1
Record: 3-3
They keep their spot at the top despite going 3-3 because they went 2-1 at Fenway and they are adding back B.J. Upton this week. Longoria is off to making my MVP prediction look pretty good.

2. Chicago Cubs
Previous Rank: 4
Record: 4-2
The offense has looked very good despite a slow start by Milton Bradley and missing Geo Soto for most of the week. Marmol will be the closer by the middle of May at least.

3. Los Angeles Angels
Previous Rank: 5
Record: 3-3
To take go .500 playing Oakland and Boston without Lackey, Santana and Escobar while dealing with the death of Nick Adenhart is quite the feat.

4. Boston Red Sox
Previous Rank: 2
Record: 2-4
Playing the Rays and Angels is a rough start to the season. We will get more of an idea after they face Oakland and Baltimore this week.

5. New York Yankees
Previous Rank: 3
Record: 3-3
This lineup needs A-Rod back in the lineup badly. Going 3-3 against Kansas City and Baltimore is not a very impressive start to the season.

6. New York Mets
Previous Rank: 8
Record: 3-3
A very noticeable difference with K-Rod and Putz in the back of the lineup. Santana is off to a very good start so far in the season.

7. Toronto Blue Jays
Previous Rank: 14
Record: 5-2
Offense is off to a blistering start, but it will be interesting how much off that is due to facing the Detroit and Cleveland pitching staffs. I still don't think they can make the AL East a 4 team race.

8. Florida Marlins
Previous Rank: 21
Record: 5-1
If their pitching staff stays healthy this could be a very dangerous team that could steal a wild card. Josh Johnson outdueling Johan Santana was a fun game to watch.

9. Atlanta Braves
Previous Rank: 15
Record: 5-1
Rookie Jordan Schafer is off to a very good start going .348-2-3. Glavine getting hurt may be a blessing in disguise at it clears the path for stud Tommy Hanson to get the call. The NL East looks like it could be a 4-team race all summer if Chipper can stay healthy.

10. Minnesota Twins
Previous Rank: 7
Record: 3-4
This team really needs Joe Mauer back to provide some consistency in a lineup filled with streaky hitters. The bullpen hasn't caused problems yet, but it has not introduced a lot of confidence.

11. Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous Rank: 9
Record: 4-3
Kemp and Loney are off to good starts which when combined with Manny makes this a really dangerous lineup. Taking 2 out of 3 at Arizona was also a good sign.

12. Philadelphia Phillies
Previous Rank: 6
Record: 3-3
The poor starts by Hamels and Myers raises a lot of questions as they don't have any depth behind them. This team is going to need a lot of offense from Utley and Howard this year to repeat as division champs.

13. Detroit Tigers
Previous Rank: 17
Record: 4-3
Miguel Cabrera is determined not to repeat the slow start of last year and Armando Galarraga looks like the real deal. Pitching depth could be their downfall.

14. St. Louis Cardinals
Previous Rank: 20
Record: 5-2
If Carpenter stays healthy with Pujols this team is dangerous. They look to be the 2nd best team in the NL Central. It will be telling to see how they do when they aren't facing Pittsburgh or Houston.

15. Chicago White Sox
Previous Rank: 12
Record: 3-3
If they can ride the Bartolo Colon revival they can be dangerous. It helps when they got of hitting well. The lack of a leadoff hitter could be a problem down the road.

16. Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous Rank: 10
Record: 2-4
They better hope Brandon Webb gets healthy and returns to form or else this team does not stand a chance. The lineup is also off to a less than stellar start.

17. Milwaukee Brewers
Previous Rank: 13
Record: 2-4
The offense should produce a lot of runs but the rotation is a serious question mark. Jeff Suppan is not going to win them a division.

18. Texas Rangers
Previous Rank: 19
Record: 3-3
The offense is an absolute machine especially considering Chris Davis has gotten off to a terrible start, but the lack of pitching will stop them from competing in the AL West.

19. Oakland Athletics
Previous Rank: 16
Record: 2-4
They are relying on a way too young pitching staff and Matt Holliday is off to a slow start but Trevor Cahill looks like the real deal.

20. Cleveland Indians
Previous Rank: 11
Record: 1-5
The pitching staff is brutal giving up 49 runs in 6 games. Cliff Lee is not going to repeat as AL Cy Young. They are starting off very similar to Detroit last year.

21. Cincinnati Reds
Previous Rank: 18
Record: 2-3
They don't look ready to make a Rays-like jump this year but Aaron Harang's return to form is very good to see for Reds fans. The offense should look better when Bruce and Encarncion get going.

22. Seattle Mariners
Previous Rank: 26
Record: 5-2
If King Felix and Bedard stay healthy this will be a very annoying team to face as they both have amazing stuff, but they can't rely on Endy Chavez hitting .379.

23. Kansas City Royals
Previous Rank: 24
Record: 3-3
This team is not brutal but they don't have the look of a contender in the AL Central. Alex Gordon and Billy Butler are still complete disappointments.

24. Baltimore Orioles
Previous Rank: 29
Record: 4-2
To go 4-2 against the Rays and Yankees is certainly impressive the problem is that they will still have to face them plenty and they will have B.J. Upton and Alex Rodriguez. Prospect Adam Jones is off to a very good start.

25. Colorado Rockies
Previous Rank: 25
Record: 3-3
Troy Tulowitzki is off to a good start and Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jiminez had really good 1st starts, but they are not a competitor this year.

26. San Francisco Giants
Previous Rank: 22
Record: 2-4
Two bad starts by Lincecum are not really encouraging but he should be able to turn it around. The real problem is bad starts by Randy Johnson and Barry Zito.

27. San Diego Padres
Previous Rank: 28
Record: 5-2
I can not explain the start except that this team still has Jake Peavy and Chris Young. I am willing to bet they don't go 5-2 heading to face the Mets and Phillies.

28. Houston Astros
Previous Rank: 23
Record: 1-5
It is not fun for a bad team to start off with the Cubs and Cardinals, but this is a bad team that will likely be moving some key parts in Oswalt, Berkman and Carlos Lee.

29. Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous Rank: 30
Record: 3-3
Not a bad first week and if Zach Duke and Paul Maholm can repeat their starts this team may not be the worst in baseball.

30. Washington Nationals
Previous Rank: 27
Record: 0-6
This team is absolutely brutal. They have no pitching giving up 45 runs in 6 games so far. It is going to be a long summer in Washington.

Stud of the Week: 1B Miguel Cabrera, DET
Stats: .520 3 HR 10 RBI
Honorable Mention: Evan Longoria, Albert Pujols, Emilio Bonifacio, Kyle Lohse, Josh Johnson

Dud of the Week: LHP Carl Pavano, CLE
Stats: 1 IP 81.00 ERA 3 BB 6 HA
Dishonorable Mention: Andy LaRoche, Chris Davis, Scott Olson, Cole Hamels, Chien-Ming Wang

Preview Recap, Awards and Post Season Predictions

AL Central
Minnesota Twins (7)
Cleveland Indians (11)
Chicago White Sox (12)
Detroit Tigers (17)
Kansas City Royals (24)

AL East
Tampa Bay Rays (1)
Boston Red Sox (2)
New York Yankees (3)
Toronto Blue Jays (14)
Baltimore Orioles (29)

AL West
Los Angeles Angels (5)
Oakland Athletics (16)
Texas Rangers (19)
Seattle Mariners (26)

NL Central
Chicago Cubs (4)
Milwaukee Brewers (13)
Cincinnati Reds (18)
St. Louis Cardinals (20)
Houston Astros (23)
Pittsburgh Pirates (30)

NL East
Philadelphia Phillies (6)
New York Mets (8)
Atlanta Braves (15)
Florida Marlins (21)
Washington Nationals (27)

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers (9)
Arizona Diamondbacks (10)
San Francisco Giants (22)
Colorado Rockies (25)
San Diego Padres (28)

LDS
Rays over Twins in 4 games
Red Sox over Angels in 3 games
Phillies over Dodgers in 5 games
Cubs over Mets in 4 games

LCS
Rays over Red Sox in 6 games
Cubs over Phillies in 7 games

World Series
Rays over Cubs in 5 games

AL Awards
ROY: David Price, Tampa Bay
Cy Young: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston
MVP: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay

NL Awards
ROY: Cameron Maybin, Florida
Cy Young: Brandon Webb, Arizona
MVP: Ryan Howard, Philadelphia

#1 Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays
Last Year: 97-65 1st in AL East, Lost to Philadelphia in WS
This Year: 1st in AL East


There are those out there who claim last year was a fluke and that they will fall back to their "rightful" place as a sub .500 team at the bottom of the division. It is too bad those people have no idea what they are talking about. The actually in my opinion blossomed a year early. They won last year with Crawford injured and having a subpar year, Upton struggled with a torn labrum. Longoria didn't start until May, and Price wasn't even on the squad until the playoffs. This is supposed to be their year, Longoria is here for a whole year and Price will be able to join the rotation. Throw in Pat Burrell and you have the best team in the Major Leagues in 2009.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
2B Aki Iwamura .279 6 HR 45 RBI
LF Carl Crawford .307 15 HR 72 RBI 41 SB
CF B.J. Upton .292 26 HR 93 RBI 35 SB
3B Evan Longoria .289 38 HR 123 RBI
1B Carlos Pena .251 35 HR 108 RBI
DH Pat Burrell .252 31 HR 88 RBI
C Dioner Navarro .287 9 HR 59 RBI
RF Gabe Gross .242 15 HR 44 RBI
SS Jason Bartlett .280 2 HR 41 RBI 22 SB

Rotation
RHP James Shields 16-8 3.45 ERA 170 K
LHP Scott Kazmir 14-7 3.40 ERA 174 K
RHP Matt Garza 14-8 3.34 ERA 154 K
RHP Andy Sonnanstine 14-10 4.12 ERA 130 K
LHP David Price 13-5 3.47 ERA 148 K

CP RHP Troy Percival 4.34 ERA 32 SV 40 K

I know Upton is not ready for Opening Day and Price is starting in AAA, but this is how the team will look for the majority of the year and why they are the best team.

Best Case Scenario: Longoria doesn't face a sophomore slump and puts up MVP numbers. Upton stays healthy and builds off the postseason in which he hit 7 HRs in 66 at-bats. Crawford returns to all-star form. Kazmir decides to pitch into the 6th inning this year by not walking the bases full every inning. Garza builds off post season and becomes an all-star caliber pitcher. Price comes up and runs away with the AL ROY. The Rays find an answer in the closer role between Percival, Isringhausen and who ever is actually healthy. This team wins the AL East again and takes it a step farther by winning the World Series in the worst stadium known to man.

Worst Case Scenario: The injury bug hits the Rays hard. Kazmir gets injured or only pitches 140 innings. The bullpen collapses with the inability to find a closer and hold onto a lead. Garza still is inconsistent, and Price is not ready to be a dominant starter yet. This team struggles to live up to expectations on the team for the first time ever and struggle with the ultra-competitive AL East. This team finishes 3rd in the AL East and misses the playoffs.

Player Most Important to Success: Matt Garza. Garza has the stuff to be a front-line ace as he has been projected to be since he was called up with the Twins in 2006. He has slowly but surely moved closer to his potential but showed glimpses of what he can be in the playoffs last year. If the Rays are going to win the AL East again this year they are going to need Garza to reach his potential. If he becomes an All-Star pitcher this team's rotation will be able to match up pound for pound with the Yankees and Red Sox staffs, and then the Rays superior lineup will put them over the top and into the World Series again.

Outlook: This lineup is ridiculous. They have 4 players who have the potential to hit 30 home runs and 2 in Pena and Longoria who have the potential to hit 40. The only possible whole in the lineup is Right Field but that shouldn't be a huge problem with Gabe Gross and Matt Joyce platooning. I don't see how a pitcher can go through this lineup without giving up at least a run every time. The rotation isn't bad at all. If Price comes in and makes a Liriano/Linecum splash this team might run away with the division. The only thing I can see tripping this team up is bullpen issues or if the injury bug riddles this team. Last year was a prelude to the explosion we should see this year. Last year was not a fluke this Rays team is around to stay and should be a player in the AL East for years to come.