It is a Great Day in Sports

My hand might suffer a little carpal tunnel tonight as I will be furiously switching between the NCAA National Championship and the Twins Season Opener. These are the days where I wish I had two TVs in the same room.

National Championship

If you watched UNC play MSU in Ford Field in Dec. 3rd in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge, you had two thoughts. North Carolina is unbeatable and will walk to a national title and MSU will not be back to Ford Field. Well, UNC has proven throughout the season that they can be beaten and MSU has clubbed and clawed it's way into a rematch.

Why UNC will win: They are far and away the most talented team in the NCAA. This team doesn't even rely or use Hansborough that much this year. This team when it focuses can beat any team by 20 points. They are determined to win after all coming back to avenge last year's loss to Kansas.

Why MSU will win: They are the most underrated 2 seed in the history of the tournament. People are acting as if this is some Cinderella story but they are a 2 seed and if they had won the Big Ten tournament they would have been a 1 seed. This team can play fast and they can play slow. They will outrebound any team by 15. This team played UNC before without Goran Suton who has been an absolute force this tournament and should be able to control Hansborough. This team has a decided home field advantage and plenty of momentum.

Who will win: Teams have overlooked MSU all tournament only to get smacked in the mouth. UNC will not be overlooking them but they have to be thinking they are overwhelming favorites after beating them in December. The difference comes down to two things. One is the coaching, Roy Williams is a good coach and a great recruiter, but Tom Izzo is a wizard. He has outcoached Bill Self, Rick Pitino and Jim Calhoun this year. Williams is just not the game coach that Izzo is. The other difference is defense. UNC has faced this team before but they are a completely different team with Suton in the game. They will be a tougher defense than UNC has seen all year and the one UNC weakness is that they are a little soft. If MSU starts out hot and gets a lead this could be a magical night in Detroit.

Michigan St. 75, UNC 71

Opening Day

One of the best days of the year will only be diminished by the Dome for one more time. That said there is plenty of excitement surrounding the 2009 Minnesota Twins. This should be a great game with the duel between Felix Hernandez and Liriano. Seattle might steal this game due to Hernandez but the Seattle Lineup with out Ichiro is a joke. Here are the opening day lineups:

Minnesota
LF Denard Span
2B Alexi Casilla
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
DH Jason Kubel
3B Joe Crede
CF Carlos Gomez
C Mike Redmond
SS Nick Punto

Seattle
LF Endy Chavez
CF Franklin Guetierrez
DH Mike Sweeney
3B Adrian Beltre
RF Ken Griffey Jr.
2B Jose Lopez
1B Russell Branyan
C Kenji Johjima
SS Yuniesky Betancourt

Every one is looking at Young sitting and trying to read into it and make something out of it. Someone had to sit in the first game and it was Delmon Young. That being said I'm not surprised it is Delmon Young. Gardenhire loves Cuddyer and I see Gardenhire giving him all the chances in the world. I would guess it is going to be a lot of rotating and I would expect Young will be in the lineup on Tuesday. In place of who in the lineup I have no idea but this thing should play itself out that by the middle of June we will have three regular starters in the outfield and the odd man out.

And Now We Play the Waiting Game

While not a lock to be in the tournament, the Gophers with the win over Northwestern and playing MSU very tough they are in very good shape. They played very hard, and fared the best out of the three matchups. They were done in the by the same issues (lack of outside shooting, turnovers) but they also found a new issue. They were terrible at free-throw shooting. They are typically a very good free throw team shooting 72.6% on they year. Today they went 13-27 or 48%. If they went 21-27 from the line it is a tie game. The Gophers have enough offensive issues that they do need to be creating more.

The player of the game was Damian Johnson. He lead all scorers with 19 points, 4 rebounds and 2 steals. He drew the defensive assignment of Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe. They combined for 5 points and 8 fouls. He is our best player and continues to prove it every game.

I know other blogs are doing this but here is a summary of what has hurt or helped the Gophers chances.

Hurt the Gophers

• Baylor is hanging around by beating Texas. They are in the Big 12 title game against Missouri. They are not a at-large team but if they win they will steal a bid from a bubble team.
• Maryland beat Wake Forest. Maryland was looking for a high-quality win and they got it by beating Wake. They have wins against UNC, MSU and Wake. They still have a worse resume than the Gophers but that will change if they beat Duke in the Semis.
• Temple beat Xavier and San Diego State beat BYU. They both became likely at-large teams who can both be automatics if they win their conference title games. I don't think they knock off the Gophers but they will push them closer to the bubble with less at-large spots.
• USC beat UCLA. They are a legitimate at-large team now. I still think they have a worse resume than the Gophers but that could change if they beat ASU in the title game and got an automatice bid.
  

Helped the Gophers

• Penn State lost convincingly to Purdue. Penn State will be the first team from the Big Ten not invited. I don't think Penn State will make the tournament.
• Kentucky lost to LSU. Kentucky is done and we don't have to worry about the legacy pick.
• Virginia Tech lost to UNC. Virginia Tech is no longer an option.
• South Carolina lost by 18. Another team with a worse resume than the Gophers.

What to hope for tommorrow

• Missouri crushing Baylor
• Maryland losing to Duke
• Temple wins the A-10
• USC loses to ASU
  

In summary, the Gophers are in fairly good shape but it is not for certain in the wacky NCAA. If Baylor, USC and Duquesne steal automatic bids the Gophers could be in real trouble. It looks like the Gophers right now will be a 11 seed. If they can bring the intensity and effort they have the last two days along with a confident Devron Bostick, this team can win the first round game but it would be safe to assume that it would end there.

MSU Game Preview

#19 Minnesota Golden Gophers (18-3, 6-3) at #13 Michigan State Spartans (17-4, 6-2)

I am doing this preview now because tomorrow will be devoted to signing day and the Gophers incoming recruiting class. If you would have asked me to predict this game after MSU came in and stomped the Gophers at Williams I would have said MSU would walk, but a lot has change and this could be a very interesting game. A win by Minnesota would be huge and would punch their ticket to the NCAA tournament. Also with Purdue's loss at Ohio State a win at Michigan State would put the Gophers in first place. If you were to predict the Gophers would be playing in February for 1st place you could have won a lot of money. Here is a review of the Spartans:

Wins to Showcase:

• at Texas 67 - 63
• vs Kansas 75 - 62

Losses to Hide From:

• vs Northwestern 63 - 70
• vs Maryland 62 - 80

Previous Result

• Michigan State 70, Minnesota 58

There assets are still the same. They have a lot of talent and are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. However, this is an extremely difficult game because there are things in the Gophers favor and things going against them. I will show how it lays out.

Things in Minnesota's Favor

• Raymar Morgan is sick. He has walking pneumonia and has been ineffective for the last 5 games. They are 3-2 in those five games. He is a 1st-Team All Big Ten player when healthy. They miss him a lot.
• Time to prepare. The Gophers haven't played since Thursday giving them 5 days to prepare. Michigan State played Sunday and has only had two days to prepare. You only need to turn to the Louisville game to see what can happen if Tubby has significantly more time to prepare.
• Ralph Sampson III: When Michigan State came to town he was still a timid jump shooter who couldn't rebound. He had 0 points, 0 rebounds and 4 fouls in 10 minutes against MSU. He has developed into the force that we thought he would become and I don't think the last two games are a fluke like the Mid-January Devron Bostick. His strong defensive presence and improved rebounding will be crucial to the Gophers success.

Things Going Against the Gophers

• Talent: Even without Raymar Morgan the Spartans have far more talent than the Gophers. Kailin Lucas, Goran Sutton, Delvon Roe, Chris Allen and others are all big time talents with various levels of NBA futures.
• It is a road game: The Gophers have yet to play a good game on the road. They have either been bailed out by choking (Wisconsin) or complete lack of talent (Iowa, Indiana, Colorado State). They have been trailing by double digits at some point in every road game so far this year. If they are down by double digits to MSU the game will be over.
• Tom Izzo: They are coming of a very disappointing loss to Penn State and should be playing at home with great urgency and intensity. Add to that the level of respect Izzo has for the Gophers. If you were to ask him who the best coach in the Big Ten is, he will say without hesitating that it is Tubby. He will make sure that this team is ready and will not come out flat.

Prediction

I have been contemplating all week whether Minnesota could actually pull of the upset in East Lansing. I think they have a very good chance given the circumstances. I think the most important match up is Nolan vs. Lucas. In the first game Lucas schooled Nolen to the tune of 24 points. When MSU struggles it is because Lucas is struggling with his shot and control. If Nolen can force him to put up bad shots and play out of control the Gophers can win this. Their is a possibility but a lot has to go right for the Gophers to come out and I have yet to be impressed with them on the road this year and won't pick them to win a road game until I am. MSU should come out ready and while I think this game will be closer than the one at the Barn I think MSU will pull it out.

Michigan State 79, Minnesota 72

Super Thoughts and Gopher Updates

• That was a great Super Bowl game, I only have a limited number of Super Bowls I remember but that was the most enjoyable so far. It started slow but what a 4th quarter. The best part was that it was decided by touchdowns and not field goals. There is no comparison between a team setting up to bring out a soccer player to kick a 47 yard field goal and the two Fitzgerald touchdowns and the Holmes touchdown.
  
• There is a lot of debate about where the Holmes catch ranks all-time. Like I said I have a limited history but I have it as the best catch of all-time. This article makes the similar argument that a great play should be in the biggest stage and win the game. Unlike Tyree's catch last year this won the game.
  
• Vikings fans have always been told that we just need a QB to manage the game given our team to succeed. This Super Bowl proved that is the biggest myth this side of Troy Williamson being Randy Moss. Pittsburgh had the best defense in the NFL only allowing 1 team to have more than 300 yards all season, still they needed Ben all season. They had a total 7 games in which they came back in the 4th Quarter to win. He manages the game for awhile and doesn't put up great numbers but is there when they need him. No matter how good the team is there always comes a point when you don't need a player to make a good play they need them to make a great play and Big Ben does that. A true managing QB is Joe Flacco and he went down to Pitt because he couldn't get it done when they needed him. The Vikings will not go to the Super Bowl until they get a real QB.
  
• The Gophers are back into the AP 25 with a bang and are currently ranked 19. They are ranked 22 in the RPI. In the latest ESPN bracketology they are a 5 seed playing BYU. This all is nice but it means little this week because a lot will change this week. We could easily go 0-2 and drop out of the Top 25. Even if we go 1-1 we should be moving significantly up depending on which game we win.
• The Gophers did receive a bit of good news in that it seems likely that Raymar Morgan will miss the game because he is still affected by what has been diagnosed as walking pneumonia. This is a big deal. He has been affected by this in their last 5 games. They have gone 3-2 in those games losing at home to Northwestern and Penn State. In their 3 upset losses (Mayland, Northwestern, Penn State) they have gotten a total of 5 points from Morgan. With a healthy Morgan we can't win the game, without him we have a chance.

Stats of the Day

• 546: Yards by Larry Fitzgerald in 4 playoff games. He also had 7 touchdowns.
• 3301 yrds 17 td 15 int vs. 3213yds 21 td 17 int: Roethlisberger's stats vs. the Vikings QB's this year. Vikings QBs had more tds and only 100 less yards but who would you rather have leading the Vikings.
• 15.4: PPG by Raymar Morgan in MSU victories while he was healthy.