The Joe Mauer Lineup Conundrum

We are all looking forward to the return of Joe Mauer next weekend, but his return will pose an interesting question on how to structure the lineup. Jason Kubel and Justin Morneau have been far and away our two best hitters so far batting back to back. If you are to put Joe Mauer in front them then you have three left-handed hitters in a row. That is not something any manager likes to do although Philadelphia is currently doing it with Utley-Howard-Ibanez. I don't think that is something Gardenhire would like to do but the question is whether he even has a chance.

One option is to bat Mauer 2nd and put a righthander in the 3 hole. The problem is Mauer does not like batting second and who do you put in the 3 hole. This would be the solution if Cuddyer, Crede or Young were hitting well but they are all around the Mendoza line. The other option is to put a righthander between Morneau and Kubel but then you have the team's rbi leader batting 6th in Kubel and I don't think the Twins want to break up Kubel and Morneau.

I don't think the Twins currently have a choice but to bat them in a row, at least until a right hander starts to hit consistently. I also think it can work because they all do hit left-handed pitchers reasonably well. Mauer is a .300 hitter in his career against lefties, Morneau is only .261 against lefties for his career but hit .284 last year and is actually hitting .417 so far this year, and Kubel is 3 for 8 so far this season against lefties.

It is not ideal but I think the Twins don't have a choice since the three are their best hitters. I think this is what the lineup will look like when Mauer returns.

RF/LF Denard Span
2B Alexi Casilla / Brendan Harris
C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
DH Jason Kubel
3B Joe Crede
LF/RF Delmon Young / Michael Cuddyer
SS Nick Punto
CF Carlos Gomez

Two Week Assumption of Twins Players

Here is a list of some position players and starters and how they have fared so far this year. A lot have room for improvement and only Perkins and maybe Kubel are playing out of their league.

• Denard Span: .300 1 HR 9 RBI 3 SB .397 OBP. He is the prototypical leadoff hitter. I was worried about him regressing, but he takes professional at-bats every single time. He should be exempt from the outfield rotation and leading off every game.
• Alexi Casilla: .196 0 HR 2 RBI 0 SB. He has struggled hitting from the right side, but he has fully come into his own playing second base. With his compact swing and speed, I am not worried about his offense yet. He will benefit a lot from having Mauer bat behind him.
• Justin Morneau: .321 2 HR 9 RBI. Same old, same old. Simply a professional hitter. He is currently on pace for .321-23-104. He is guarenteed to get at least that but should end up even better.
• Jason Kubel: .333 2 HR 12 RBI. Surprise give this guy at-bats and he produces. While his average is likely to drop, there is no reason if he gets plenty of at-bats in the 5 hole once Mauer gets back that he doesn't go .285-25-100.
• Michael Cuddyer: .235 1 HR 5 RBI. Gardenhire loves this guy symbolized by him only sitting one game so far. Why he is not platooned more I have no idea. He takes a lot of bad at-bats. It is too bad that both him and Delmon Young are right handed or else the rotation would be solved.
• Joe Crede: .175 1 HR 3 RBI. A disapointment so far. Very good defensively, but with Buscher and Harris hot so far, I wouldn't mind him sitting a few games. He should hit better once he settles into this team.
• Delmon Young: .212 1 HR 7 RBI. He is oft-maligned and took absolutely terrible at-bats swinging at every pitch. When he gets patient and takes pitches he has more success. He is better than Cuddyer if he does not force it at the plate.
• Carlos Gomez: .200 0 HR 1 RBI 2 SB. He definitely has been more patient at the plate and it is a shame it has not paid off yet. To show how important he is to the offense he has reached base 9 times with 7 hits and 2 walks and he has scored 5 times. He is also the best defensive centerfielder in the AL, he may struggle at times but he should be in the lineup close to every game.
• Brendan Harris: .407 1 HR 2 RBI. He has settled very well into his role as a bench player. He deserves to get spot starts for Casilla, Punto, and Crede. They need to use his bat while he is hitting so well, because it is not likely to last.
• Glen Perkins: 1-1 1.50 ERA 12 K. He is off to a great start and should be 3-0 but has gotten little offense behind him. He may not continue to be an ace but he looks to be a very solid starter and not the #5 starter that he came into the season as.
• Francisco Liriano: 0-3 5.09 ERA 11 K. He just can't seem to break through. In the Seattle start he was undone by a few bad pitches and someone golfing a shot out. In Chicago he was undone by a small strike zone and unraveling in one inning due to not getting calls. He seemed to be closer to reaching his potential by holding the hot Blue Jays to 1 run in 7 innings. He is still the best pitcher on this team.
• Nick Blackburn: 0-1 5.71 ERA 5 K. He is skirting the fine line between Derek Lowe and Carlos Silva. Batters are batting .310 against him. He can give the team innings but he worries me a lot because you can not continue to succeed being that hittable.
• Kevin Slowey: 2-0 5.89 ERA 12 K. Had an absolutely terrible start against the Blue Jays but fared much better against the Angels. He is the type of pitcher who needs to outsmart instead of overwhelm and he has yet to do so this year.
  

Why Tubby Isn't Leaving

There has been speculation mostly started by the man they call "Sid Hartman" that Tubby is a huge candidate for other jobs and may leave the Gophers. I just don't see it happening and will try to explain why it makes no sense for him to do so.

Alabama Job:

The theory: Alabama boosters are so happy with the Nick Saban move that they will do that to basketball and throw loads and loads of money at Tubby Smith for him to turn around the basketball program. He will take the job because he loves money and he will be able to beat down Kentucky every year.

Why this won't happen: Alabama is currently 11-6 with a RPI of 121 and the biggest recruit coming in next year is three-star Shawn Kemp (yes one of the 30 descendants of that Shawn Kemp). The Gopher program is much farther along. People argue that he left Georgia after two years but the difference is that he left Georgia (which I am told still plays Division I basketball) to coach a national power in Kentucky which he lead to a national title the next year. He also will never be able to get the program to the level where they will always be able to beat Kentucky who has a hold on the SEC thanks to him. Also, it must be mentioned that one perceived reason for the lack of love at Kentucky was underlying racism, it is hard to believe that wouldn't be more of an issue at Alabama.

The main reason he won't go is that Alabama is a football school. If you were to ask Tide fans if they would rather have a SEC football title or a Final Four appearance most would choose the SEC title. Basketball can succeed at football schools like Florida, Texas and Ohio State but at all schools the football coach is the star and the basketball coach is second fiddle. Take Florida for example, Billy Donovan has two titles and went to the Final Four three times, Urban Meyer has two titles, Billy Donovan is respected but Urban Meyer is God. Here in Minnesota Tubby is the star. He sat in a suite behind the student section during football games and every game a Tubby chant was started, that won't happen at Alabama. He will be an afterthought.

Arizona Job:

The theory: Arizona is a national power that has more prestige and ability to win national titles. Old Minnesotans move to Arizona so Tubby will also.

Why this won't happen: Arizona was a national power, they are 11-7 with an RPI of 94 and are in shambles since the retirement of Lute Olson. They do not have a single commitment for 2009 or 2010 despite two seniors and the likely departure of Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill. Minnesota is in better shape to compete for titles than Arizona currently is. Certainly it wouldn't take that long to turn around Arizona but he has such a good start at Minnesota he wouldn't want someone else to get credit for his turnaround here.

The main reason he won't is because of the lesson he learned from the Kentucky job. He came in after revered Rick Pitino and even given his success wasn't beloved because he didn't have the same success as Pitino(even though that is debatable). It would be even worse at Arizona. At Kentucky he was taking over for just a good coach. Lute Olson is Arizona, the court is named after him, he was there for 24 years. He could never be as loved there as Lute Olson is. For example look at Indiana after Bobby Knight left. Mike Davis went 115-79, 4 NCAA appearances, and went to the national title game but he was let go after 6 years because he was not Bobby Knight. Going to Arizona would be a no win situation for Tubby.

Another reason he will not take any job is Saul Smith. Tubby would like it so that when he retires Saul is given the head coach job. If he walked into Maturi's office now he could get that deal where it would be harder if he went elsewhere. At Minnesota Tubby is a rock-star and will always be. This isn't football where the Gophers will never be able to compete year in and year out with Ohio State and Michigan. They can contend for the Big Ten title and Final Fours every year with Tubby at the helm. It does not make sense for him to fix another program this late in his career.

Quick Notes

• Buck Bravo is reporting that Jedd Fisch has been hired as the Gophers Offensive coordinator. This has not been officially confirmed yet by the Gophers but the Star Tribune does mention he is a serious candidate. I know nothing of him, Buck Bravo has more information about him but he spent last year as the Wide Receivers coach of the Denver Broncos.
• The Twins and Jason Kubel have agreed to a two-year deal with a club option for the third. The financial terms were not disclosed. I have always been a Kubel fan and think he has still not reached his full potential. I think he can hit .300 with 25 hrs.
• KFAN has fired Chad Hartman and his producer Doogie.

Stats of the Day

• 24: Straight appearances in the NCAA by Arizona likely to end this year. Lute Olson only missed the NCAA his first year as a coach at Arizona.
  
• 3: NCAA appearances by Arizona before Lute Olson.
• 10,711: Attendence at last home game for Alabama against LSU. Arena seats 15,043. 92,138 attended the last Alabama home football game against Auburn.