And Now We Play the Waiting Game

While not a lock to be in the tournament, the Gophers with the win over Northwestern and playing MSU very tough they are in very good shape. They played very hard, and fared the best out of the three matchups. They were done in the by the same issues (lack of outside shooting, turnovers) but they also found a new issue. They were terrible at free-throw shooting. They are typically a very good free throw team shooting 72.6% on they year. Today they went 13-27 or 48%. If they went 21-27 from the line it is a tie game. The Gophers have enough offensive issues that they do need to be creating more.

The player of the game was Damian Johnson. He lead all scorers with 19 points, 4 rebounds and 2 steals. He drew the defensive assignment of Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe. They combined for 5 points and 8 fouls. He is our best player and continues to prove it every game.

I know other blogs are doing this but here is a summary of what has hurt or helped the Gophers chances.

Hurt the Gophers

• Baylor is hanging around by beating Texas. They are in the Big 12 title game against Missouri. They are not a at-large team but if they win they will steal a bid from a bubble team.
• Maryland beat Wake Forest. Maryland was looking for a high-quality win and they got it by beating Wake. They have wins against UNC, MSU and Wake. They still have a worse resume than the Gophers but that will change if they beat Duke in the Semis.
• Temple beat Xavier and San Diego State beat BYU. They both became likely at-large teams who can both be automatics if they win their conference title games. I don't think they knock off the Gophers but they will push them closer to the bubble with less at-large spots.
• USC beat UCLA. They are a legitimate at-large team now. I still think they have a worse resume than the Gophers but that could change if they beat ASU in the title game and got an automatice bid.
  

Helped the Gophers

• Penn State lost convincingly to Purdue. Penn State will be the first team from the Big Ten not invited. I don't think Penn State will make the tournament.
• Kentucky lost to LSU. Kentucky is done and we don't have to worry about the legacy pick.
• Virginia Tech lost to UNC. Virginia Tech is no longer an option.
• South Carolina lost by 18. Another team with a worse resume than the Gophers.

What to hope for tommorrow

• Missouri crushing Baylor
• Maryland losing to Duke
• Temple wins the A-10
• USC loses to ASU
  

In summary, the Gophers are in fairly good shape but it is not for certain in the wacky NCAA. If Baylor, USC and Duquesne steal automatic bids the Gophers could be in real trouble. It looks like the Gophers right now will be a 11 seed. If they can bring the intensity and effort they have the last two days along with a confident Devron Bostick, this team can win the first round game but it would be safe to assume that it would end there.

Penn State Game Review

I almost hit this one on the button. I predicted Penn State 67, Minnesota 63 and I was off by one point. So I can't say that I'm am surprised by the result. This is a team that is regressing to what they were supposed to be this year. A decent team that would be on the bubble. Slightly better than last year but not significantly, certainly not a top 25 team. That said while not playing well they still are in good shape to make the tournament. They need to finish 3-2 down the stretch and they have three games at home left.

In an interesting twist the player of the game is also the goat of the game. Devoe Joseph went berserk in the second half. He ended up with 23 points going 8-11 from the field and a whopping 7-8 from behind the arc. He simply could not miss. He became the goat when Talor Battle picked him clean and went down and made the layup to make it a 4 point lead with under a minute left. The last few minutes showed were Joseph is best served. He isn't able to create his own shot especially being guarded by someone as quick as Talor Battle. What he can do is come off screens. So those who think he should see more time at point than Nolen, I think he should see more time as the 2 guard than Westbrook who has disappeared averaging 4.5 ppg in the last 4 games.

This game once again showed the fatal flaw in the Gophers team this season. No one on the team is able to consistently create their own offense. If you take away Joseph's performance the Gophers went 12-38 or 31.6%. That is not going to win you road games. The Gophers can not shoot and no one can make some offense in the half-court. The biggest reason is that neither Iverson or Sampson has developed enough presence down low that the wings have to collapse down on them or double team opening up the wings. It will happen that they will dominate down low but it is not going to happen this year. Even if they make the tournament this team is currently able to make any noise in March, it will be nice to be in the tournament but this is not a sweet sixteen capable team.

The next game will be interesting because it is the same circumstances as this game. Michigan needs this game to keep the tournament hopes alive. The only change is that it is a little more important for the Gophers. If they lose this game they will have to win all 3 games at the Barn. If they win it gives them a little room to breathe.

Other News

• Hopkins headed to New York this weekend to play in the NIKE Super Six. They dominated a Thomas Jefferson team from New York. It wasn't the best opponent but if you read this blog during the game Hopkins gained a lot of respect for not only themselves but Minnesota basketball. White dominated with 22 points. I think that Hopkins team could beat any high school team in the nation.

Stats of the Day

• 27: Fouls committed by the Gophers. One major reason for the loss was that all our post players were in foul trouble and could not play aggressively like they normally do. It also allowed Penn State to make 21 free throws. It helped them whether the Joseph storm.
• 28: Minutes played by Travis Busch a season high. This was a result of the other's foul trouble. While he played ok (4 points 5 rebounds) it is not a good sign when you get that much time out of Busch.
• 30: Points scored by Gophers not named Joseph or Nolen. We had 9 other players play and they averaged 3.33 points per player. That is unacceptable and down the stretch it was clear the rest of the players were just hoping Joseph would save them and they were not even looking to do something offensively.
  

Penn State Game Preview

Minnesota Golden Gophers (19-5, 7-5) at Penn State Nittany Lions (17-8, 6-6)

This should be a very interesting game. The Gophers only need to go 3-3 down the stretch to make the tournament. They could even go 2-4 if they win a game in the Big Ten tournament. On the other hand Penn State needs this game. A loss at home and they can kiss the tournament goodbye unless they win the conference tournament. Here is Penn State's resume:

Wins to showcase:

• at Michigan State 72 - 68
• vs. Purdue 67 - 64

Losses to hide from:

• vs. Rhode Island 72 - 77
• vs. Temple 59 - 65

Previous Result

• Gophers 79, Penn State 59

I think we can basically forget the previous result between these two teams. Bostick isn't likely to sweep in and get 19 points. I would also wager against the Gophers shooting 9-9 from behind the arc or shooting 62.7% all together. The Gophers played out of their mind and had there best shooting game of the year. That being said I do think the Gophers are the better team but this is Big Ten basketball and it doesn't always matter who is the better team.

Their are downtrodden Gopher fans who are depressed about the Gophers losing 4 of the past 7 and two of the wins being less than satisfying against the Hoosiers. It is worse for the few Nittany Lions basketball fans. They have lost the last 3 games all by double digits and have gone from in the tournament to needing to turn it up to get back in. The biggest issue is Talor Battle he is averaging 6.3 ppg in the three losses including 0 against Purdue. He is averaging 17.4 for the season. Al Nolen is not the guy you want to right the ship against so that favors the Gophers.

Prediction

There are major factors that hurt the chances of the Gophers pulling this game out. They have not played well recently lacking intensity and offensive direction. Penn State desperately needs this game. If they lose this game their season is over. This is a must-win game for the Lions but this is not a must-win game for the Gophers. They still will need to match Penn State's intensity. The final major factor is that this game is on the road. The Gophers stink on the road. They can not shoot and have yet to play a complete game that wasn't at home or a neutral court. I think this is a game the Gophers can and maybe should win but I can't predict them to win until they show me something. I think this just means to much to Penn State.

Penn State 67, Minnesota 63

Penn State Preview

#22 Minnesota Golden Gophers (14-1, 2-1) Vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (13-3, 2-1)

There are teams in the Big Ten like Michigan State we know are elite and their are teams like Iowa we know are subpar. Penn St. has yet to be placed in the pecking order of the Big Ten. They have perennially been in the basement of the conference not making the NCAA tournament since 2001. They have had some good wins including beating Purdue, however, Purdue was playing without Robbie Hummel and Kramer Berg. Here is Penn State's resume:

Wins to Showcase:

• Vs. #14 Purdue 67 - 64
• at Georgia Tech (9-6) 85 - 83

Losses to hide from:

• Vs. Rhode Island (11-5) 72 - 77
• Vs. Temple (7-6) 59 - 65

Assets

• Rebounding: 40.5 rebounds per game second in the conference behind MSU
• Ball Control: 10.9 turnovers per game second least in conference behind Wisconsin
• Talor Battle: 18.9 ppg, 6.1 rebs, 5.3 ass

Issues

• Defense: Allow 60.7 ppg and opponents shoot 41.2%
• Depth: After top three scorers, the fourth scorer Danny Morrissey scores 6.1 ppg. By comparison our fourth scorer is Al Nolen with 8.3 ppg.

While Penn State has some talent in Battle, Stanley Pringle and Jamelle Cornley, they are not in my opinion a tournament-caliber team. If the game was at Penn State it would be one thing but they are a team we should beat at Williams. Losing to teams like Rhode Island and Temple at home shows they aren't ready to jump up to the top tier of the conference.

Interesting things to watch

• Talor Battle Vs. Al Nolen: Two of the best point guards match-up. Nolen struggled to control Kalin Lucas but Battle doesn't have the speed that Lucas does. If Nolen is able to shut down Battle the game will be over quick. Battle last year at Williams was shut out shooting 0-8. If that is repeated this game will be over quick.
  
• Blake Hoffarber: Last year Blake put up 29 points in his two games against Penn State. He has been struggling lately but a big game from him would do wonders for the Gophers.

Prediction

Penn State is a dangerous team. Overall they are average but if their stars get hot they can beat any team in the Big Ten. The key for the Gophers is to jump on them early, let the crowd get into it and Penn State should go away. If Penn State gets going early it will be a long game. The Penn State offense is very perimeter oriented, Minnesota has a lot of defensively talented players in Nolen, Joseph and Johnson. They also should be able to utilize Iverson's blocking abilty in help defense. I think Tubby has this team to focused and determined to get upset but this game will be close. Let's hope the Gophers shoot a lot better than they did Thursday night.

Gophers 65, Penn State 63