Dreaming of What Could Be

Rivals has updated its Top 150 recruits for the Class of 2010 and it leads to dreams dancing in the minds of all Gopher fans. Here is where possible Gopher recruits fall on the list.

#2 Harrison Barnes - A 6'6" wing from Iowa who has some connections to the U.
Positives: Played on the same AAU as Royce and Rodney. His mom is a huge fan of Tubby and if he wants to stay close to home it is probably his best option.
Negatives: We are competing against every team in the nation and he is a Duke fan.
Likely Destination: Duke or Kansas

#6 Cory Joseph - 6'3" guard who is the brother of Devoe Joseph.
Positives: Brother is a major component on the current Gophers team. We have been recruiting him since before his junior year.
Negatives: With his stock soaring a lot of teams have gone after him with Louisville going hard after him.
Likely Destination: Depends on how the Pitino - Louisville situation ends up but it is likely the Gophs or Louisville.

#11 Jelan Kendrick - 6'6" wing from Georgia.
Positives: RSIII is from Georgia and we have been watching him for awhile.
Negatives: Isn't being recruited as hard as others and does not seem to be a priority compared to others.
Likely Destination: Kentucky or Georgia Tech

#26 Vander Blue - 6'3" guard from Wisconsin
Positive: Just recently de-committed from Wisconsin and it has been reported the Gophers are going to go hard after him.
Negative: It is believed he left Wisconsin to head to either Marquette or Louisville who were still after him while he was committed.
Likely Destination: Marquette

They may not get any of these players, but it is just another sign of the Tubby effect that 4 of the top players in the nation who aren't from Minnesota are giving the Gophers legitimate consideration. The Gophers have 3 scholarships for 2010. I think they will get 1 of these 4 players, a big man like Elliot Eliason or Alex Kirk and Jacob Thomas for 2010. We were all excited for the big class with Royce and Rodney but it is possible that would look like small potatoes. If we got Barnes and Joseph we would possibly have the #1 class in the nation. The future is truly bright in the Barn these days.

Gillispie Out at Kentucky

After only two years at Kentucky, Billy Gillispie has been fired from Kentucky. Kentucky missed the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1991. He was fired not just for the losses but how he handled himself by irritating everyone involved in the program. To date I have not been worried about Tubby leaving and was happy the Alabama job was filled but this one worries me. He is a former Kentucky assistant and Pitino protege. He is one of the hottest coaches in America and has been wanted by every AD with a vacant head coach. He would love to coach a big time program like Kentucky. I also think he would be perfect for the job. He handles his job with class and is loved by his players and staff. I think if Kentucky were to get Tubby he could turn the program around quickly. I could see him leading the Wildcats to a National Title, 3 Elite Eights, and 5 SEC titles. I think we might have seen the last of Tubby in maroon and gold and might have to get used to him in blue and white in Lexington.

Offseason Goldy News and Thoughts

• Scout and Rivals have revealed their top 300 and 250 respectively for the football class of 2010 and the Gophers are off to a good start. Offensive lineman Jimmy Gjere is #161 overall on Rivals and a 4-star and #159 and a 4-star on Scout. Linebacker Konrad Zagzebski is #239 on Scout. Other notables Sentreal Henderson is #1 overall on both lists by a wide margin according to reports. Beau Allen is #247 on Scout.
• With Spring Football approaching the Daily Gopher noted that Brewster has started participating in the irritating fad that is Twitter. Here is his feed. Reading through this Brewster is devolving into just a characticture. Sometimes it is really hard to take him serious with the rah-rah nonsense that comes out of his mouth.
• Speaking of a character babbling non-sense Pat Reusse is at it again. Nothing gets me more annoyed than Pat Reusse taking potshots at the University of Minnesota. I don't know what the University did to him but he clearly hates the U. He writes an article about how every Gopher program this year was mediocre and collapsed and while it is true in some cases, he is stretching and bringing pessimism to a whole new level. He then ranks the disappointments in order of most disappointing.
• He claims the Volleyball team failed because it was ranked 10th nationally and lost at home in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Explain how to me that is a failure. The Washington Basketball team was ranked high and won the Pac-10 this year but lost in the second round in Portland to Purdue. Were they a failure? No, then why would the Volleyball team be one.
• Next is the Women's Hockey team that only won the WCHA crown, was ranked #1 for a lot of the year and lost in the Frozen Four to Mercyhurst. While it is disappointing they could not win, never is a trip to the Frozen Four a failure or a collapse. When it is one and done anything can happen.
• Wrestling came next. They were acknowledged to be in a down year and had a bad year but every powerhouse has a bad year as they finished 7th in the Big Ten tournament. I would take any bet that they will be a lot better next year.
• Then he had the balls to list the Men's Basketball team as a failure or collapse. He uses the excuse that the team was ranked #19 and was mediocre down the stretch. He claims that Damian Johnson regressed in Big Ten play and anyone who actually watched the team knows the opposite is true as he became our best player down the stretch. He doesn't dwell on the fact that this team won 9 games two years ago and still has 4 players from that team contributing. This team met or exceeded any rational expectations for this team heading into the season. I think Reusse would fit right in as a Kentucky Wildcat fan.
• He again thinks the Women's team failed for making the second round of the NCAA and beating a higher seed on its own home court. He was around when the Women were at the bottom and 100 people watched them in the Sports Pavilion and now being one of the top 32 teams isn't good enough.
• He then brings up the Gopher Football "collapse". What always is failed to be mentioned is that the Gophers never beat a bowl team the whole year. They did not collapse they just beat crappy teams early. People thought the Illinois and Purdue wins were impressive but they ended up not to be. The Gopher football team definitely has not been an overnight success but they did improve over 2007 and there is no reason to believe they won't improve on 2008 next year.
• Then finally he brings up the Hockey collapse. While I admit that it was a terrible collapse and this team had way too much talent to miss the NCAA tournament, he took it too far. Here is his quote about the hockey team "Don Lucia again turning his Yankees of college hockey into the St. Paul Saints". I don't even fully get the analogy and to say it is an overeaction is to put it mildly. They finished as the 15th best team in the nation and while they disappointed this year they certainly were not a minor league team.
• I'm sorry for the rant and it is probably hard to follow and read but I hate Reusse and I don't get why he feels necessary to rip the U. If Tubby wins the Big Ten next year, Reusse will either write an article about some old football coach talking about his playing days at Gustavus or he will take the day off and wait until they lose in the tournament and rip the failure of the program.
  

It's Been a Good Year and the Future is Bright

Well, just like that the Gophers season is over. To break down what happened in the Texas game takes just one sentence. Abrams got hot and the Gophers panicked. It was a 3 point lead in the second half and then Abrams hit 4 straight threes. The Gophers then tried to score quick and from the outside and with this team that is a disaster. Damian Johnson did well on Damian James, but no one was stopping A.J. Abrams and no matter how hard Sampson and Iverson tried they were never going to be able to hold down Pittman who only Dejuan Blair might be able to stop.

This loss does not detract from what was a good season. The program has excitement that has not been around since 1997. This team made the NCAA tournament with NIT talent. This loss early should drive the returning players and especially the freshman to work hard in the offseason so this doesn't happen this year. Kentucky message boards in an effort to disparage the Tubby success says that the Gopher fans are just happy to be in the tournament and have low expectations. That was true this year but that is not the expectation for next year. I expect them to not be on the bubble and I expect them to be playing a lower seeded program in the opening round next year and not the 9 seed.

In a lame attempt at a season recap I will show the Gophers resume as if they were the next opponent.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (22-11, 10-10)

Wins to Showcase:

• Vs. Louisville 70-64
• at Wisconsin 78-74

Losses to Hide From:

• at Northwestern 65-74
• at Penn State 63-68

Assets:

• Interior Defense: This team had four very capable shot blockers in Sampson, Iverson, Johnson and Carter. They also after some issues in the non-conference schedule became a very good rebounding team. With the addition of bulk in Mbakwe and White, I don't see any opponent having any success down low next year.
• Free Throw Shooting: Outside of Colton Iverson, this entire team is very good at shooting free throws. That may seem small but many games were salted away by Westbrook and others not missing a free throw down the stretch. Sampson is very good at 75% that will be very benficial for a big man who should see the line a lot in his future.
• Damian Johnson: I don't care what the coaches decided but Damian Johnson is the best defensive player in the Big Ten. He can guard almost every postion and is all over the place with blocks, steals and rebounds. Towards the end of the season his offensive game really started to develop. He ended the season with 9.8 ppg but in the last 8 games he averaged 12.1 ppg. If he continues to develop in the offseason he can be a 14-15 point scorer next year while providing his world class defense.

Issues:

• Outside shooting: This was what held the Gophers back all season. They lacked a scorer who makes threes in their sleep that all successful teams have in College Basketball. Going into the season many asssumed it would be Blake Hoffarber but that just did not happen this year. Westbrook can make them but for often then not forced a contested one. Joeseph didn't shoot a lot and was also hot and cold. This is my biggest worry for next year as the recruiting class does not address this issue. The Gophers will need Hoffarber to bounce back and Joseph develop his shot and confidence where he can be that shooter. I think it is possible but we can not shoot like we did this year and be successful next year.
• Turnovers: We were too sloppy with the basketball too often. Many blamed Nolen for this issue but he had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 which is pretty good. It wasn't one persons fault but the team as a whole. For a poor shooting team like the Gophers they needed all the possessions they can get. This should improve next year with everyone becoming more experience and improving.
• Go-To Scorer: Lawrence Westbrook usually tried to fulfill this role but he is merely just holding it for someone else. A slow 6' footer with a mediocre shot is not who you want to be counting on down the stretch. The Gophers lacked some one like A.J. Abrams who you can count on to get hot and take over the game. They need a player or players that they can count on for 15-20 points a game and to get us through the lulls that plaugued us this year. I see Sampson, White and Joseph potentially be one of those guys but I don't know if that will be by next year. One thing I do see is Westbrook won't be the only player averaging double digits.

It was an exciting year and while sometimes frustrating it was a very enjoyable year. This will be a very long offseason as Midnight Madness can not come fast enough. This season was a stepping stone and next year should be the beginning of a long and beautiful run as a player in the college basketball scene.

Why I Can't Wait for the Gophers to be a Powerhouse

In anticipation I was thinking about the upcoming Gopher game. I was happy to see that we are getting Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg doing the game because I do enjoy them. Then I thought about the thing I hate the most about the Gophers not being a known commodity. Those of us following the Gophers have to hear the same damn info about our team every time we get new announcers. So here is a checklist of what you are going to hear when Nantz and Kellogg cover us for the first time.

• Did you know that Lawrence Westbrook is a cousin to Eagles running back Brian Westbrook? They will mention this after he makes a drive to the hoop. They will then comment how he is built like a fullback or halfback. They will remark on how he barrells into the lane like a running back despite going the speed of a truck and not a 4.4 running back. They may also mention that he scored 40 ppg as a high school senior.
• Did you know that Ralph Sampson III is the son of legend Ralph Sampson Jr? They will make this comment after his first block or hook shot. They will then pan to his father for 15 seconds, who looks to not be enjoying himself at all. Clark Kellogg will then remark about how good Ralph Sampson Jr. was and how he won 3 Player of the Year awards.
• Did you know Devoe Joseph is from Canada? After his first long range make, they will remark that the young freshman hails from Ajax, Onterio in Canada.
• Did you know Damian Johnson has the wingspan of a 7 footer? This will be said after his first block how he is only 6'7" but he is quick and has a 7 foot wingspan.
• Did you know Paul Carter has moved a lot? This will happen if he contributes but it usually is only spoken while he is at the free throw line.
• Did you know Blake Hoffarber has been nominated for two ESPYS? This hasn't been mentioned much this year because he has had limited success this year. It might also not get mentioned because it is usually on ESPN to pimp their own awards.

This will all be mentioned in between non-stop gushing over Tubby Smith. They will mention his national title, NCAA appearances and consecutive 20-win seasons. They will mention how he was not appreciated by Kentucky and likely how Kentucky is not in the tournament.

This is why I can't wait for the Gopher powerhouse. I look forward to turning to ESPN and CBS and not having to listen to the announcers try and introduce the Gophers through unique meaningless stories. Instead they won't have to because the nation will already know about Ralph Sampson, Royce White and Rodney Williams.

Bring on the Longhorns

I woke up Sunday morning confident about the Gophers chances. Then I had to watch Mississippi State win the Battle of who wanted to lose less to Tennessee. I started get to worried as both ESPN and CBS had the Gophers as one of the last four in. Then the show started and when Arizona was in I got even more nervous. Then Maryland was in as a 10 seed. Then a Wisconsin team that most had more in than the Gophers was a 12 seed. I thought for sure we were screwed. Then came the magical moment. The Gophers are the 10 seed in the East Bracket playing the 7 seed Texas. Thank God. Here is the Gophers' reaction. The game will be Thursday night at 6:10 PM, which means I will have to surf between the game and the hockey team's Final Five game against Minnesota-Duluth. My priority will definitely be the basketball game.

We made it to the tournament in Tubby's second season. We went from a 9 win team missing the NIT to a 22 win team in the NCAA tournament in two seasons. I think we all forget that sometimes. This team had to replace 32.7 ppg from an NIT team and turned it into an NCAA team. While not many tears where shed for the loss of Spencer Tollackson not many teams lose their top 3 scorers and improve the next year.

I will do a preview of the game later in the week but from here on out it is all gravy. The goal for this team was to make the tournament. It may have temporarily changed after the Louisville win and top 20 ranking but that was found to be fool's gold as the Gophers hit the road in the Big Ten. They came back to reality and so did the expectations. This team is supposed to just make the tournament for experience for next year which the expectations will be raised. We get at least one more game to watch the Gophers and we should enjoy it and reflect on all the excitement and intrigue they have given us this year and how bright the future is.

And Now We Play the Waiting Game

While not a lock to be in the tournament, the Gophers with the win over Northwestern and playing MSU very tough they are in very good shape. They played very hard, and fared the best out of the three matchups. They were done in the by the same issues (lack of outside shooting, turnovers) but they also found a new issue. They were terrible at free-throw shooting. They are typically a very good free throw team shooting 72.6% on they year. Today they went 13-27 or 48%. If they went 21-27 from the line it is a tie game. The Gophers have enough offensive issues that they do need to be creating more.

The player of the game was Damian Johnson. He lead all scorers with 19 points, 4 rebounds and 2 steals. He drew the defensive assignment of Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe. They combined for 5 points and 8 fouls. He is our best player and continues to prove it every game.

I know other blogs are doing this but here is a summary of what has hurt or helped the Gophers chances.

Hurt the Gophers

• Baylor is hanging around by beating Texas. They are in the Big 12 title game against Missouri. They are not a at-large team but if they win they will steal a bid from a bubble team.
• Maryland beat Wake Forest. Maryland was looking for a high-quality win and they got it by beating Wake. They have wins against UNC, MSU and Wake. They still have a worse resume than the Gophers but that will change if they beat Duke in the Semis.
• Temple beat Xavier and San Diego State beat BYU. They both became likely at-large teams who can both be automatics if they win their conference title games. I don't think they knock off the Gophers but they will push them closer to the bubble with less at-large spots.
• USC beat UCLA. They are a legitimate at-large team now. I still think they have a worse resume than the Gophers but that could change if they beat ASU in the title game and got an automatice bid.
  

Helped the Gophers

• Penn State lost convincingly to Purdue. Penn State will be the first team from the Big Ten not invited. I don't think Penn State will make the tournament.
• Kentucky lost to LSU. Kentucky is done and we don't have to worry about the legacy pick.
• Virginia Tech lost to UNC. Virginia Tech is no longer an option.
• South Carolina lost by 18. Another team with a worse resume than the Gophers.

What to hope for tommorrow

• Missouri crushing Baylor
• Maryland losing to Duke
• Temple wins the A-10
• USC loses to ASU
  

In summary, the Gophers are in fairly good shape but it is not for certain in the wacky NCAA. If Baylor, USC and Duquesne steal automatic bids the Gophers could be in real trouble. It looks like the Gophers right now will be a 11 seed. If they can bring the intensity and effort they have the last two days along with a confident Devron Bostick, this team can win the first round game but it would be safe to assume that it would end there.

Gophers Now in Good Shape

I was unable to preview the Northwestern game as I had a family matter to attend to but everyone knew the stakes for the game. Lose and we were NIT bound and win and we are very likely to be in. I hesitate to say that we are in because crazy things could happen like Cleveland St. stealing a bid by beating Butler. It also won't help if we get crushed by Michigan St. tomorrow. If we play tough and keep it close we should be in the tournament.

The player of the game was Ralph Sampson III. He put up 9 points, 6 rebounds, 5 blocks, and 2 assists. He was a physical presence defensively down low and when ever the Gophers finally got the ball into him down low good things happen. He went 3-3 and that wasn't because of being timid it was because the Gophers were not able to feed the post. He has matured so much this year. In the beginning of the year most thought Iverson was the better player. Iverson still has flashes but Sampson has blossomed and has potetial to grow even more. He should be an absolute force down low next year.

The Gophers won but the problems that plauge them were still very present. They went 4-19 behind the arc and the half court offense was non-existent. This team also won for the same reason they always do. Defense. They play the best defense in the Big Ten when they want to. They had 11 blocks and 7 steals. They won this becuase once Northwestern tied the game the defense cracked down and held Northwestern scoreless for 7 minutes and went on a 14-0 run.

This was a much needed victory but it might get ugly tomorrow. We do not matchup well with MSU at all and they are finally healthy and playing their best basketball right now. The Gophers still need to show up and give their best effort. If they get blown out by 30 it won't be hard for the selection committee to leave them out. Prediction: MSU 77, Gophers 58

Stats of the Game

• 3-16: Craig Moore's shooting in the game. He had 8 points. He put up 22 in the win over Minnesota and was averaging 14.4 on the season.
• 9: Turnovers by the Gophers. It is the lowest total since turning it over 9 times against Eastern Washington on 11/26/08.
• 5-5: Sampson and Iverson from the field. We have to find a way to get it down low more often. If the guards can't shoot they could at least get it to someone who can.
  

Michigan Game Preview-Regular Season Finale

Minnesota Golden Gophers (21-8, 9-8) vs. Michigan Wolverines (18-12, 8-9)

Set your alarm clocks for tomorrow morning as this game will be at 11 am. It is also Senior Night. Usually that is an emotional and intense thing but I don't see many tears shed for the departure of Jamal Abu-Shamala and Jon Williams. With Penn State's win over Illinois and Northwestern's drive onto the bubble, Michigan might need more than a win in this game to be in the tournament. That being said they need to win this game or it is over for Michigan. Here is there resume:

Wins to Showcase:

• vs. Duke 81-73
• vs. UCLA 55-52

Losses to Hide From:

• at Iowa 60-70
• at Penn State 58-73

Previous Result

• Michigan 74, Minnesota 62

Michigan thoughly beat Minnesota in the previous match-up. The problem wasn't Harris or Sims it was allowing Zach Novak, Stu Douglass, and Kelvin Grady to combine for 42 points when they average 17.6 points per game. Michigan hit 13 3-pointers shooting 46.4%. They average 32.7% from behind the arc on the year. That is worse than the Gophers. It is safe to say they will not shoot as well as they did in the previous game. The question is how much worse will they shoot.

The biggest problem for Michigan is taking the show on the road. They make the Gophers look like road warriors. They are 2-8 on the road this year with the two wins at Indiana and an overtime win at Northwestern. They average 60 points on the road versus 71.8 ppg at home. I know I have said that games in March come down to who needs it more and Michigan needs this more. However, I just don't see how a team that lost a must-win game at Iowa is going to come into the Barn and beat our ferocious defense that allows only 54.9 ppg at home. Tubby has this team seeing a chance to clinch a spot in the NCAA and the crowd should be able to help them accomplish this goal. I don't see the letdown happening at the Barn on Saturday.

Gophers 63, Michigan 56

Other News

• The Gophers football team has had a good week on the recruiting trail. Early in the week they got the commitment of Antoine Lewis a cornerback from Illinois. He is listed as having 4.3 speed. That is obviously wrong but he should have good speed. They then finished the week getting the first 2010 commitment from the state of Minnesota by getting Jimmy Gjere an offensive lineman from Irondale. He is considered the 3rd best prospect in Minnesota behind Henderson and Beau Allen. He already had offers from Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State. The rankings aren't out yet for the 2010 class but Lewis should be a 3-star and Gjere could be a 4-star recruit.
• The Gophers basketball team has added a walk-on for the 2009 team. It added Dominique Dawson from Minneapolis Soutwest. He is a 6'7" forward who is averaging 21.9 ppg. He will not be getting any playing time and will be nothing more than a body but he is a big body that should help Mbakwe and Royce White in practice. He also might have the potential to contibute in a few years as he is big and athletic. He played wide reciever in high school catching for 34 passes for 664 yards and 8 touchdowns. He also wrestled as a freshman. If Bostick and Payton stick around next year which is questionable, the addition of Bryant Allen and Dawson will have 17 players on the roster. That is a lot of bodies.
  

Wisconsin Preview

Minnesota Golden Gophers (20-8, 8-8) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (18-10, 9-7)

March Basketball is officially upon us and it comes in the form of a doozy. This game will be very similar to the Illinois game, it may not be high-scoring and beautiful to look at but it should be a very intense game and an exciting game to watch. Wisconsin is likely already in the tournament but I guarantee they have not forgotten the Gophers rallying to beat them at Kohl to send them into a 6 game spiral. They would relish the chance to severly damage our NCAA chances. Here is Wisconsin's resume:

Wins to showcase:

• Vs. Illinois 63 - 50
• Vs. Ohio State 55 - 50

Losses to hide from:

• at Iowa 69 - 73
• at Northwestern 63 - 66

Previous Result

• Gophers 78, Wisconsin 74

I think it is safe to assume that we can not count on getting 29 points from Westbrook and 11 from Bostick. I would also bet against a double-double by Paul Carter. This game will be nothing like the previous game. However, I bet the Gophers press for most of the game and the length and althleticism of Johnson and Carter should still cause problems for the Badgers.

Wisconsin is a legendary tough team at Kohl but it does not always translate to the road. This year they are 4-6 on the road with the best win at Michigan but they have also lost to Iowa and Northwestern. When it comes to games in March it always seems to come down to who wants the game more and plays like it. While Wisconsin has the revenge motivation and a win will clinch their berth in the tournament I have to believe the Gophers want it more. They need this game and they have been practicing for a week for this game with Tubby in their ear about how much they need this game. This is a different team at home mainly because they play stifling defense (holding Big Ten opponents to 56.14 ppg) and actually make an outside jump shot. I think the Gophers desperation will outweigh the Badgers want for revenge.

Gophers 57, Wisconsin 53

Northwestern Review

It is good to be home. One watching the game on Sunday can not believe that was the same Northwestern team that beat us this year. They did not even appear to be a Division I opponent. They never got anything going offensively and while the Gophers still struggled at times in the half court they cruised to their largest win of the season by 27 points. This team is night and day when playing at home versus on the road. They make shots and play much harder on defense forcing turnovers.

This game did not have a standout player of the game as everyone played well and contributed from Bostick scoring 9 to Busch, Iverson and Hoffarber getting 7. The player of the game is then by default the leading scorer in Lawrence Westbrook. He lead the team with 17 points and went 6-10.

This was a game that we needed to stay alive but it didn't help our chances that much. What did help us the most on Sunday is that Michigan lost to Iowa. They are now 7-8 in the Big Ten and still have to face us, Purdue and Wisconsin. There season is over. The Big Ten is down to 7 possible teams and it also helps because when Michigan shows up for the final game they won't have anything to play for and could just roll over for us.

Next up is the final road game at Illinois. It is a daunting task to go in there and win. It is good news that a win there is not required but if we do somehow win at Illinois we are almost assured a spot in the NCAA's.

It should also be mentioned that the win against Northwestern gave us 20 wins on the season. We now have won back to back years of 20 wins and Tubby has coached 16 straight 20 win seasons. The Minnesota program only has 11 20 win seasons in its entire history and 4 of those are wiped out due to sanctions.

Stats of the Game

• 9: Points scored by Devron Bostick in 16 minutes. He had scored only 4 points in 62 minutes in the last 9 games.
• 56.14: Big Ten oppponent's scoring average at Williams Arena this year. Big Ten foes average 67.75 ppg when the Gophers are on the road. That is a huge difference. If you take out the Purdue and MSU home losses opponents are scoring only 50.6 ppg.
• 29-13: Tubby Smith's record in the NCAA's. For all those who think if we make the tournament we will be one and done. Tubby Smith has lost in the 1st round only once and that was in 1996-1997 with Georgia.

Illini Game Preview

Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-3, 5-3) vs. #19 Illinois Fighting Illini (17-3, 5-2)

This is a very important game for the Gophers. After this game they go on the road to face Michigan State and Ohio State. They need to win this game or they will be in serious trouble of being 5-6 in the conference. A side note I am sick of Thursday night games that make me miss The Office and 30 Rock. Either they need to change the dates or someone should pitch in and help me buy a DVR, but I regress. Here is the Illini's resume:

Wins to showcase:

• at Purdue 71 - 67
• at Missouri 75 - 59

Losses to hide from:

• at Michigan 51 - 66 (Other losses were at Michigan State and against Clemson)

Assets:

• Shooting: Average 47.9% from the field, 1st in conference
• Sharing the Rock: 18.8 assists per game, 1st in conference, 3rd in nation
• Defense: Allow 56.6 ppg, best in conference, 4th best in nation
  

Issues:

• Getting to the free throw lane: 285 attempts, last in conference, 333rd in nation
• Turnovers: 12.9 per game 4th worst in conference

Usually I put up 3 strengths and 3 issues put I could only find two issues and the second one is pushing it. They do a lot well. They play great defense, shoot the ball well, and have multiple players capable of scoring. They don't have any outstanding wins outside of winning at Purdue but they also have no losses to be ashamed of. They lost to Clemson by two and were up big at Michigan State before the Spartans came charging back. They are battling Purdue for the second best team in the Big Ten this year

Interesting things to watch:

• Ralph Sampson Vs. Mike Tisdale: Ralph has taken some big steps lately and has played some very good interior defense with blocks, but he will be facing someone taller than him in 7-1 Tisdale and will be challenged. If Ralph can hold his own and make his presence felt the Gophers could be in business.
• Perimeter Shooting: The biggest reason for the Gophers recent struggles is the lack of outside shooting. Illinois is the best in perimeter defense holding opponents to 27.6% from 3. The Gophers need Westbrook, Hoffarber, Joseph and Nolen to start making their shots from the outside to get the half-court offense going.

It has been well-documented that the Gophers have not beat Illinois since 1999 losing 20 straight. It could be chalked up to Monson's inferior Gophers up against great Illinois teams featuring Deron Williams, Dee Brown, Brian Cook and James Augustine but there is more to it than that. Last year a 16-19 Illini team that went 5-13 in the Big Ten beat a Tubby Smith coached Gopher team three times. I can't explain what they do that frustrates us but it doesn't bode well. Illinois in my mind is clearly a better team but this is at Williams so that does even things out a little bit. The problem is that Illinois has 4 players averaging double digits and they play defense that should give or weak half-court offense fits. I would like a win here but given how the Gophers are playing recently unless we see a breakthrough performance we are looking at being 2-3 at Williams in Big Ten play so far this year.

Illinois 67, Minnesota 59

Why Tubby Isn't Leaving

There has been speculation mostly started by the man they call "Sid Hartman" that Tubby is a huge candidate for other jobs and may leave the Gophers. I just don't see it happening and will try to explain why it makes no sense for him to do so.

Alabama Job:

The theory: Alabama boosters are so happy with the Nick Saban move that they will do that to basketball and throw loads and loads of money at Tubby Smith for him to turn around the basketball program. He will take the job because he loves money and he will be able to beat down Kentucky every year.

Why this won't happen: Alabama is currently 11-6 with a RPI of 121 and the biggest recruit coming in next year is three-star Shawn Kemp (yes one of the 30 descendants of that Shawn Kemp). The Gopher program is much farther along. People argue that he left Georgia after two years but the difference is that he left Georgia (which I am told still plays Division I basketball) to coach a national power in Kentucky which he lead to a national title the next year. He also will never be able to get the program to the level where they will always be able to beat Kentucky who has a hold on the SEC thanks to him. Also, it must be mentioned that one perceived reason for the lack of love at Kentucky was underlying racism, it is hard to believe that wouldn't be more of an issue at Alabama.

The main reason he won't go is that Alabama is a football school. If you were to ask Tide fans if they would rather have a SEC football title or a Final Four appearance most would choose the SEC title. Basketball can succeed at football schools like Florida, Texas and Ohio State but at all schools the football coach is the star and the basketball coach is second fiddle. Take Florida for example, Billy Donovan has two titles and went to the Final Four three times, Urban Meyer has two titles, Billy Donovan is respected but Urban Meyer is God. Here in Minnesota Tubby is the star. He sat in a suite behind the student section during football games and every game a Tubby chant was started, that won't happen at Alabama. He will be an afterthought.

Arizona Job:

The theory: Arizona is a national power that has more prestige and ability to win national titles. Old Minnesotans move to Arizona so Tubby will also.

Why this won't happen: Arizona was a national power, they are 11-7 with an RPI of 94 and are in shambles since the retirement of Lute Olson. They do not have a single commitment for 2009 or 2010 despite two seniors and the likely departure of Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill. Minnesota is in better shape to compete for titles than Arizona currently is. Certainly it wouldn't take that long to turn around Arizona but he has such a good start at Minnesota he wouldn't want someone else to get credit for his turnaround here.

The main reason he won't is because of the lesson he learned from the Kentucky job. He came in after revered Rick Pitino and even given his success wasn't beloved because he didn't have the same success as Pitino(even though that is debatable). It would be even worse at Arizona. At Kentucky he was taking over for just a good coach. Lute Olson is Arizona, the court is named after him, he was there for 24 years. He could never be as loved there as Lute Olson is. For example look at Indiana after Bobby Knight left. Mike Davis went 115-79, 4 NCAA appearances, and went to the national title game but he was let go after 6 years because he was not Bobby Knight. Going to Arizona would be a no win situation for Tubby.

Another reason he will not take any job is Saul Smith. Tubby would like it so that when he retires Saul is given the head coach job. If he walked into Maturi's office now he could get that deal where it would be harder if he went elsewhere. At Minnesota Tubby is a rock-star and will always be. This isn't football where the Gophers will never be able to compete year in and year out with Ohio State and Michigan. They can contend for the Big Ten title and Final Fours every year with Tubby at the helm. It does not make sense for him to fix another program this late in his career.

Quick Notes

• Buck Bravo is reporting that Jedd Fisch has been hired as the Gophers Offensive coordinator. This has not been officially confirmed yet by the Gophers but the Star Tribune does mention he is a serious candidate. I know nothing of him, Buck Bravo has more information about him but he spent last year as the Wide Receivers coach of the Denver Broncos.
• The Twins and Jason Kubel have agreed to a two-year deal with a club option for the third. The financial terms were not disclosed. I have always been a Kubel fan and think he has still not reached his full potential. I think he can hit .300 with 25 hrs.
• KFAN has fired Chad Hartman and his producer Doogie.

Stats of the Day

• 24: Straight appearances in the NCAA by Arizona likely to end this year. Lute Olson only missed the NCAA his first year as a coach at Arizona.
  
• 3: NCAA appearances by Arizona before Lute Olson.
• 10,711: Attendence at last home game for Alabama against LSU. Arena seats 15,043. 92,138 attended the last Alabama home football game against Auburn.
  

Northwestern Preview

#18 Minnesota Golden Gophers (16-1, 4-1) at Northwestern Wildcats (8-6, 0-4)

Northwestern is a perennial bottom feeder in the Big Ten and they haven't gotten off to an impressive start this year. They have never made the NCAA tournament and this does not appear to be their magical season. They have had some good wins and should have beaten Purdue on Thursday but they are not an NCAA caliber team. Here is Northwestern's Resume:

Wins to showcase:

• vs Florida State 73 - 59
  
• vs DePaul 63 - 36

Losses to hide from:

• at Penn State 57 - 61
• at Wisconsin 45 - 74 (Losing by 29 not the opponent)

Assets

• Ball Control: 11.5 turnovers per game, 1.4 assists to turnover ratio
• Quick Hands: 7.4 steals per game, 3rd in conference. Gophers 1st with 9.0
• Kevin Coble: 14.2 ppg, 5.4 rebs, 2.3 ass

Issues

• Rebounding: 34. 6 per game, second worst in conference
• Free Throws: 64.7% worst in conference
• Perimeter Defense: Opponents shoot 36.1% from 3, second worst in conference

While their losses are not too embarrassing, they don't have any real good wins, DePaul is the worst team in the Big East and their third best win is probably over 9-7 UC Riverside. They play a style similar to Iowa. They play slow and limit possessions. If they make you play their style it could be a close game, if you force them to play up-tempo it could get ugly.

Interesting things to watch:

• Gophers athleticism: The Gophers have some long quick wings in Johnson, Bostick and Carter that can cause some problems and they will likely be assigned to shut down Coble.
• Blake Hoffarber: Lost in the excitement around the program is the struggles of Blake Hoffarber. He has shot 3-20 from 3 in the 5 Big Ten games and has not made one since the Ohio State game. That is 15%. He shot 42.7% last year. He did very well against Northwestern last year scoring 15 points in both games. I look for him to shake off the drought at Northwestern.

Prediction

This has the possibility to be a trap game. Coming off a huge win at Wisconsin and playing a bottom feeder. Northwestern showed in the Purdue game that they can be very dangerous. The game will be similar to the Iowa game if we shoot poorly we will be in for a dog fight but if we play like we can it should be a breeze. Monson frequently struggled with Northwestern's defense but Tubby doesn't have the same issues. In the two games against Northwestern last year the Gophs won by 19 and 20 points. They scored 92 at Northwestern last year. Also the Barnyard has chosen this game for their annual road trip. I don't know the number they are bringing but with Northwestern's lack of attendence the game might feel more like a neutral court game than a road game.

Gophers 73, Northwestern 60