Preview Recap, Awards and Post Season Predictions

AL Central
Minnesota Twins (7)
Cleveland Indians (11)
Chicago White Sox (12)
Detroit Tigers (17)
Kansas City Royals (24)

AL East
Tampa Bay Rays (1)
Boston Red Sox (2)
New York Yankees (3)
Toronto Blue Jays (14)
Baltimore Orioles (29)

AL West
Los Angeles Angels (5)
Oakland Athletics (16)
Texas Rangers (19)
Seattle Mariners (26)

NL Central
Chicago Cubs (4)
Milwaukee Brewers (13)
Cincinnati Reds (18)
St. Louis Cardinals (20)
Houston Astros (23)
Pittsburgh Pirates (30)

NL East
Philadelphia Phillies (6)
New York Mets (8)
Atlanta Braves (15)
Florida Marlins (21)
Washington Nationals (27)

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers (9)
Arizona Diamondbacks (10)
San Francisco Giants (22)
Colorado Rockies (25)
San Diego Padres (28)

LDS
Rays over Twins in 4 games
Red Sox over Angels in 3 games
Phillies over Dodgers in 5 games
Cubs over Mets in 4 games

LCS
Rays over Red Sox in 6 games
Cubs over Phillies in 7 games

World Series
Rays over Cubs in 5 games

AL Awards
ROY: David Price, Tampa Bay
Cy Young: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston
MVP: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay

NL Awards
ROY: Cameron Maybin, Florida
Cy Young: Brandon Webb, Arizona
MVP: Ryan Howard, Philadelphia

#1 Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays
Last Year: 97-65 1st in AL East, Lost to Philadelphia in WS
This Year: 1st in AL East


There are those out there who claim last year was a fluke and that they will fall back to their "rightful" place as a sub .500 team at the bottom of the division. It is too bad those people have no idea what they are talking about. The actually in my opinion blossomed a year early. They won last year with Crawford injured and having a subpar year, Upton struggled with a torn labrum. Longoria didn't start until May, and Price wasn't even on the squad until the playoffs. This is supposed to be their year, Longoria is here for a whole year and Price will be able to join the rotation. Throw in Pat Burrell and you have the best team in the Major Leagues in 2009.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
2B Aki Iwamura .279 6 HR 45 RBI
LF Carl Crawford .307 15 HR 72 RBI 41 SB
CF B.J. Upton .292 26 HR 93 RBI 35 SB
3B Evan Longoria .289 38 HR 123 RBI
1B Carlos Pena .251 35 HR 108 RBI
DH Pat Burrell .252 31 HR 88 RBI
C Dioner Navarro .287 9 HR 59 RBI
RF Gabe Gross .242 15 HR 44 RBI
SS Jason Bartlett .280 2 HR 41 RBI 22 SB

Rotation
RHP James Shields 16-8 3.45 ERA 170 K
LHP Scott Kazmir 14-7 3.40 ERA 174 K
RHP Matt Garza 14-8 3.34 ERA 154 K
RHP Andy Sonnanstine 14-10 4.12 ERA 130 K
LHP David Price 13-5 3.47 ERA 148 K

CP RHP Troy Percival 4.34 ERA 32 SV 40 K

I know Upton is not ready for Opening Day and Price is starting in AAA, but this is how the team will look for the majority of the year and why they are the best team.

Best Case Scenario: Longoria doesn't face a sophomore slump and puts up MVP numbers. Upton stays healthy and builds off the postseason in which he hit 7 HRs in 66 at-bats. Crawford returns to all-star form. Kazmir decides to pitch into the 6th inning this year by not walking the bases full every inning. Garza builds off post season and becomes an all-star caliber pitcher. Price comes up and runs away with the AL ROY. The Rays find an answer in the closer role between Percival, Isringhausen and who ever is actually healthy. This team wins the AL East again and takes it a step farther by winning the World Series in the worst stadium known to man.

Worst Case Scenario: The injury bug hits the Rays hard. Kazmir gets injured or only pitches 140 innings. The bullpen collapses with the inability to find a closer and hold onto a lead. Garza still is inconsistent, and Price is not ready to be a dominant starter yet. This team struggles to live up to expectations on the team for the first time ever and struggle with the ultra-competitive AL East. This team finishes 3rd in the AL East and misses the playoffs.

Player Most Important to Success: Matt Garza. Garza has the stuff to be a front-line ace as he has been projected to be since he was called up with the Twins in 2006. He has slowly but surely moved closer to his potential but showed glimpses of what he can be in the playoffs last year. If the Rays are going to win the AL East again this year they are going to need Garza to reach his potential. If he becomes an All-Star pitcher this team's rotation will be able to match up pound for pound with the Yankees and Red Sox staffs, and then the Rays superior lineup will put them over the top and into the World Series again.

Outlook: This lineup is ridiculous. They have 4 players who have the potential to hit 30 home runs and 2 in Pena and Longoria who have the potential to hit 40. The only possible whole in the lineup is Right Field but that shouldn't be a huge problem with Gabe Gross and Matt Joyce platooning. I don't see how a pitcher can go through this lineup without giving up at least a run every time. The rotation isn't bad at all. If Price comes in and makes a Liriano/Linecum splash this team might run away with the division. The only thing I can see tripping this team up is bullpen issues or if the injury bug riddles this team. Last year was a prelude to the explosion we should see this year. Last year was not a fluke this Rays team is around to stay and should be a player in the AL East for years to come.

#2 Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox
Last Year: 95-67 2nd in AL East, Lost in ALCS to Tampa Bay
This Year: 2nd in AL East


The Red Sox have gone from a team of lovable losers to an almost dynasty in this decade. Last year they fell just short of winning their 3rd title in 5 years. They have also done a beautiful job of slowly transitioning from the team of Manny, Ortiz, Pedro and Schilling a problem that the Yankees are facing. This question is if they have fully transformed into another title team or if the younger players still need more seasoning.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
CF Jacoby Ellsbury .294 11 HR 53 RBI 55 SB
2B Dustin Pedroia .312 17 HR 78 RBI 23 SB
DH David Ortiz .274 27 HR 103 RBI
1B Kevin Youkilis .303 24 HR 108 RBI
RF J.D. Drew .284 21 HR 68 RBI
LF Jason Bay .282 30 HR 97 RBI
3B Mike Lowell .281 17 HR 70 RBI
SS Jed Lowrie .263 5 HR 54 RBI
C Jason Varitek .231 10 HR 42 RBI

Rotation
RHP Josh Beckett 18-11 3.78 ERA 183 K
RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka 18-7 2.72 ERA 188 K
LHP Jon Lester 18-8 3.09 ERA 148 K
RHP Brad Penny 13-9 4.17 ERA 130 K
RHP Tim Wakefield 10-13 4.75 ERA 112 K

CP RHP Jonathan Papelbon 2.56 ERA 39 SV 80 K

Best Case Scenario: Pedroia and Youkillis repeat career years of last year. Beckett and Dice-K stay healthy and dominant. Penny gets healthy and pitches like he cares again. Ortiz gets healthy and has a last hurrah hitting 35-40 home runs. Varitek still is a major league catcher. Ellsbury fully blooms into the Johnny Damon player he is supposed to be. This team wins the AL East and cruises to a 3rd World Series in 6 years.

Worst Case Scenario: Ortiz and Lowell struggle to contribute all year. Drew is an injured disappointment once again. Dice-K still has an aversion to throwing strikes and continues to throw 5 shutout innings with 110 pitches. Beckett gets a blister on every finger. Pedroia and Youkillis don't perform as well as last year. Prospects aren't ready to fill in for injuries. This team finishes third in the AL East and misses the playoffs.

Player Most Important to Success: David Ortiz. Ortiz could be considered the main reason for the two World Series titles. Manny helped for sure but Ortiz was an absolute force in the middle and had multiple huge clutch hits. He has struggled the past two years with injuries hitting 58 home runs in the past two year while he had hit 54 in 2006. He is only 33 years old so it isn't as if the sun has set on his career. He still possibly has another 40 home runs season left in him. This team has a good lineup 1-9 but they need Ortiz to be the slugger and fear-inducer of 2006 for this lineup to truly sing and make those around him even more effective.

Outlook: The Red Sox are built for years to come. They have integrated studs Ellsbury and Pedroria into the lineup and Lester and Papelbon into the pitching staff easily. If a couple pitchers go down this year, no problem they have Clay Bucholz (who has a MLB no-hitter) and Justin Masterson waiting in the wings. If Youkilis or Ortiz goes down they have sluggers Lars Anderson or Chris Carter ready to step up. The question is not whether this team is built for the long-run but whether this will be a special year. They have the best pitching rotation in the Majors, a shut-down closer in Papelbon and the lineup is very solid. The only thing holding them back is they don't have a certain 30-40 home run guy in the middle of the lineup and Lowell and Varitek have seen better days. If Ortiz can return to his old self it may be different but those minute differences will cost them the AL East title but they will still be very difficult in the playoffs. Given that pitching staff they have, they are very dangerous come October to win another World Series.

#3 New York Yankees

New York Yankees
Last Year: 89-73 3rd in AL East
This Year: 3rd in AL East


Last Year in Joe Girardi's first year as manager of the Yankees they finished in 3rd place for their worst finish since 1992. The front office answered with vengeance signing big free agents in Sabathia, Burnett and Teixeira. The question is whether it will be enough to compete in the ridiculously competitive AL East. In fact just making the playoffs might be the hardest part of winning their 27th World Series title.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
SS Derek Jeter .294 10 HR 62 RBI
LF Johnny Damon .289 13 HR 68 RBI 22 SB
1B Mark Teixeira .312 36 HR 124 RBI
DH Hideki Matsui .282 20 HR 94 RBI
RF Xavier Nady .291 26 HR 96 RBI
C Jorge Posada .270 14 HR 78 RBI
2B Robinson Cano .287 16 HR 81 RBI
3B Cody Ransom .216 6 HR 23 RBI
CF Brett Gardner .240 3 HR 42 RBI

Other Player: Alex Rodriguez .294 26 HR 92 RBI

Rotation
LHP C.C. Sabathia 17-11 3.24 ERA 213 K
RHP A.J. Burnett 16-10 3.79 ERA 205 K
RHP Chien-Ming Wang 17-9 3.78 ERA 102 K
LHP Andy Pettitte 12-14 4.79 ERA 149 K
RHP Joba Chamberlain 12-9 3.67 ERA 189 K

CP RHP Mariano Rivera 2.29 ERA 37 SV 72 K

Best Case Scenario: Alex Rodriguez comes back before May and is business as usual. Aging players Jeter, Damon, Matsui and Posada all stay healthy and contribute. Sabathia stays healthy after pitching 250 innings last year and is just as effective competing for a Cy Young award. Somehow A.J. Burnett gets a big contract and still decides to stay healthy and pitch 180 innings. They finally stick with Chamberlain in the rotation and he proves he can be a starter. This team wins the AL East and wins the World Series.

Worst Case Scenario: Alex Rodriguez has a lost year with the hip injury leaving a huge void in the suddenly weak Yankee lineup. The old parts of the lineup spend more time on the DL than the lineup. Sabathia and Burnett fail to live up to the contract and the Yankees panic causing more harm. This team finishes third in the AL East and misses the playoffs for back-to-back years.

Player Most Important to Success: Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod has quite the rough spring so far. He was found to have taken steroids and he has hurt is hip and should be out until May. The question is whether he will be back in May and how effective he will be when he gets back. Chase Utley and Mike Lowell both struggled coming back from hip injuries. If he is ineffective and not vintage A-Rod this team doesn't stand a chance. In April they will be counting on 34-year old Hideki Matsui. This lineup without A-Rod being A-Rod is mediocre surrounded with aging, injury-prone players.

Outlook: This team has issues that could lead to a less than stellar introduction to the new Yankee Stadium. The rotation should be fine with Hughes and Kennedy ready to fill in for any injuries or Andy Pettitte, but the bullpen and lineup are serious problems. With Joba in the rotation who get the ball to Rivera. Demaso Marte? Edwar Ramirez? Some guy named Phil Coke? They will need the starters to pitch 8 innings all year or have Rivera pitch two innings every game. The lineup has the potential to be a disaster if A-Rod has a lost year. Posada is 37 and missed most of last year, Damon is 35 and is no longer the leadoff hitter, Jeter is 34 and has started a steep decline, Matsui 34 and has only been healthy 1 of the last 3 years, even A-Rod's backup Cody Ransom is 33. The other players are questions also. Cano is coming off a bad year and Gardner is an unproven rookie.The bottom line is they still have more questions than they have answers. Bottom line is both the Rays and Sox have a better lineup and the Sox have better pitching. This team would win the division in any other division but in the AL East that equals 3rd place and another disappointing year in the Bronx.

#4 Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs
Last Year: 97-64 1st in NL Central, Lost in NLDS
This Year: 1st in NL Central


It seemed that the cards were falling into place last year. The team had a great regular season in the 100th year anniversary of their last World Series title and then they imploded in October for the second straight year. The question about this team is not whether they can make the playoffs. The question is if they will ever do anything once they get to the playoffs.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
LF Alfonso Soriano .282 32 HR 77 RBI 16 SB
CF Reed Johnson .293 8 HR 56 RBI
1B Derrek Lee .295 19 HR 94 RBI
RF Milton Bradley .308 26 HR 93 RBI
3B Aramis Ramirez .284 27 HR 104 RBI
C Geovany Soto .294 27 HR 94 RBI
2B Mike Fontenot .297 13 HR 71 HR
SS Ryan Theriot .290 2 HR 37 RBI
P Carlos Zambrano .249 4 HR 12 RBI

Rotation
RHP Carlos Zambrano 16-10 4.04 ERA 141 K
RHP Ryan Dempster 15-11 4.13 ERA 171 K
LHP Ted Lilly 15-9 4.34 ERA 170 K
RHP Rich Harden 13-5 3.25 ERA 181 K
LHP Sean Marshall 9-7 4.35 ERA 114 K

CP RHP Kevin Gregg 3.49 ERA 36 SV 65 K

Best Case Scenario: Harden stay healthy and gives the team 160 innings and 25-30 starts. Gregg works as closer making all Cubs games 7 inning games with Marmol in the set-up role. Lee and Soriano still have one more year of production left in them. Dempster was not a fluke last year and is still an All-Star pitcher. Zambrano is still an ace. Milton Bradley stays healthy and out of trouble enough to finally become an All-Star. This team stops choking in October and heads to the World Series for the first time since 1945.

Worst Case Scenario: Harden and Zambrano go down with injuries and Dempster proves last year was a fluke leaving the rotation in disarray. Soriano and Lee continue to age and hit above .300 or over 20 home runs. Bradley headbutts a ump, player, team mascot or fan and is sent packing to his 8th team. This team fulfills the curse of the billy goat for another year and exits quickly from the playoffs.

Player Most Important to Success: Rich Harden. Rich Harden has incredible stuff. The problem is that no one ever gets to see it because he is always on the DL. He has a career ERA of 3.23 and 9.00 K/9, the problem is that that is in 612 innings spread over 6 years. He has only made over 20 starts in a season twice and one of those was last year when he went 10-2 2.07 ERA and 181 K in only 148 innings. If he every were to make 30 starts he would win the Cy Young. With Zambrano aging and Dempster being a flash in the pan, the Cubs need Harden to be healthy and give this team a rotation that can compete in October. A healthy Harden makes this team a legitimate shot to finally end the 101 years of futility.

Outlook: This team should again play great and exciting baseball all summer but the question is whether the fun will continue into the fall. One reason for the past two collapses has been the fans' expectation to fail. It can not be easy to take the field in Game 1 with your home fans sitting on their hands waiting for it all to implode. The first error or strikeout confirms their suspicions and it all snow balls from there. It is similar to Boston until they got a team that didn't care about the fans' myths or curses and just won. This is what the Cubs need. This team has all the talent to put it together but whether they do or not is up to them. The good news for Cubs fans is that even if October is sour again June and July sitting in the best ballpark in the world will still be the time of their lives.

#5 Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels
Last Year: 100-62 1st in AL West, Lost to Boston in ALDS
This Year: 1st in AL West

For the second straight year the Angels brought a gaudy record and division title into October only to get quickly dispatched to where they came from by Boston. They had a largely unsuccessful winter in attempts to get them over the hump being unable to land CC Sabathia or re-sign Mark Teixiera. They patched up some holes by signing Bobby Abreu but this team should once again cruise to a division title but might not have the pieces to win a World Series.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
3B Chone Figgins .279 3 HR 42 RBI 42 SB
LF Bobby Abreu .292 17 HR 87 RBI 18 SB
RF Vladimir Guerrero .307 26 HR 103 RBI
CF Torii Hunter .272 22 HR 83 RBI
1B Kendry Morales .271 18 HR 76 RBI
DH Juan Rivera .262 15 HR 66 RBI
2B Howie Kendrick .322 7 HR 62 RBI
C Mike Napoli .261 22 HR 52 RBI
SS Erick Aybar .262 3 HR 36 RBI

Rotation
RHP John Lackey 10-7 3.55 ERA 104 K
RHP Ervin Santana 14-8 3.81 ERA 202 K
LHP Joe Saunders 14-8 3.76 ERA 93 K
RHP Jered Weaver 13-9 4.03 ERA 144 K
RHP Dustin Moseley 9-7 4.56 ERA 87 K

CP LHP Brian Fuentes 2.73 ERA 38 SV 78 K

Best Case Scenario: Lackey and Santana both get healthy and become top flight aces. Guerrero bounces back from a disappointing year to put up MVP numbers again. Kendry Morales produces to round out the middle of the lineup and help fans forget about Teixiera. Fuentes fills the hole left by K-Rod very well. The bottom of the lineup combines to produce enough where it doesn't all fall on the shoulders of Hunter, Guerrero, and Abreu. They don't have to face Boston in the playoffs and this team makes a presence in the postseason.

Worst Case Scenario: Lackey's elbow issue becomes serious and is lost for the season. Santana can't repeat the breakout season he had last year. Jered Weaver continues to regress and live up to expectations. The outfield is just too old to carry the brunt of the offense. Youngsters Morales, Hendrick and Brandon Wood aren't ready to contribute on a full time basis. Fuentes blows saves and the Angels struggle to find a closer. This team still wins the mediocre division but are swept by the AL East in the ALDS.

Player Most Important to Success: Kendry Morales. A lot of pressure is being put on the 25 year old First Baseman with only 377 career at-bats. He is the succeeding Mark Teixiera at 1st and is being put at the 5 hole in the lineup. He has to make fans forget about the All-Star 1st Baseman they had last year and provide plenty of offense to round out the middle of the lineup. He has potential to do so as he went .341-15-64 in only 317 at bats in AAA last year but for his MLB career he is so far .249-12-45 in 377 at bats. If he can produce he will protect Hunter and Guerrero and give the Angels a well-rounded offense. If he can not it will be dependent on Hunter, Abreu and Guerrero to provide all the offense and that won't lead to a lot of success.

Outlook: Getting CC Sabathia would have been nice but they are going to miss Mark Teixiera. The middle of the lineup is filled with aging sluggers in Guerrero, Abreu and Hunter who are "34", 35 and 33. The rest of the lineup is full of forgettable pieces. They also have questions with the usually reliable rotation with Lackey and Santana not going to be ready by Opening Day. They are both solid if healthy but that is a question at this point. This team should cruise to a AL West title for the 5th time in 6 years but unless this team gets a slugging corner infielder to bat cleanup and move Hunter to the 5-hole this team will be a quick out in the playoffs.

#6 Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies
Last Year: 92-70 1st in NL East, World Series Champs
This Year: 1st in NL East


Last year the Phillies capitalized on another Mets collapse to repeat as division champs. They then marched through the playoffs going 11-3 on the way to the franchises' second World Series title with the other being in 1980. They have not made a lot of moves in the winter with the only major move being not re-signing Pat Burrell and replacing him with Raul Ibanez. It will be interesting to see if this team has the fire or desire to defend their World Series title.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
SS Jimmy Rollins .277 13 HR 62 RBI 44 SB
CF Shane Victorino .290 16 HR 63 RBI 34 SB
2B Chase Utley .307 34 HR 107 RBI
1B Ryan Howard .267 50 HR 140 HR
LF Raul Ibanez .289 20 HR 102 RBI
RF Jayson Werth .273 24 HR 69 RBI
3B Pedro Feliz .252 16 HR 74 RBI
C Carlos Ruiz .231 5 HR 39 RBI
P Cole Hamels

Rotation
LHP Cole Hamels 17-9 3.19 ERA 189 K
RHP Brett Myers 12-13 4.54 ERA 160 K
LHP Jamie Moyer 9-9 4.79 ERA 118 K
RHP Joe Blanton 14-10 4.24 ERA 113 K
RHP Chan Ho Park 6-9 5.31 ERA 97 K

CP RHP Brad Lidge 2.31 ERA 39 SV 87 K

Best Case Scenario: Cole Hamels stays healthy and is an absolute stud. Brett Myers pitches well and is a nice compliment to Hamels. Howard improves the batting average, cuts down the strikes and wins his second NL MVP. Utley is fully healthy and rakes all season. Ibanez fills in perfectly for Burrell. This team scores plenty of runs and wins the NL East for the third straight season. This team goes back to the World Series.

Worst Case Scenario: Hamels elbow becomes serious rendering him useless for the season. Myers blows up again and Moyer finally pitches like the 46-year old that he is. Ibanez hits like a 38-year old and fails to protect Howard like Burrell did. Howard strikes out 200 times and fails to hit 40 home runs. This team still scores but can't outscore the 8 runs the pitching staff gives up every game. This team finishes 3rd in the division and around .500

Player Most Important to Success: Brett Myers. The lineup will score runs in bunches, Hamels is a legitimate Cy Young contender and Brad Lidge is one of the best closers in the game. What this team needs though to have a chance to repeat is a second starter who can win games for them. That falls on the shoulders of Brett Myers. Consistency is not a word in Myers vocabulary. In 2007 he was coming off two straight seasons with an ERA under 4.00 and was the Opening Day Starter. He then blew-up so badly they moved him to the bullpen and eventually the closer. He was moved back into the rotation last year and had mixed results. If he can give the team 190 innings with an ERA under 4.00 again this team will have a very good chance of repeating as champs. If not the Phillies may have trouble getting the lead to Lidge in the 9th.

Outlook: How the Phillies start the season will be very important. They will be without the services of their best set-up man J.C. Romero for the 1st 50 games since he tested positive for a banned substance. They will also have to fight off any World Series hangover. They can not get off to a slow start and depend on another Mets collapse in August and September. This team should still put up plenty of runs but the pitching depth is a legitimate concern. The chips all fell into place last year by the Mets collapse in September and facing postseason experience challenged teams in the Brewers, Dodgers and Rays. I don't see this team repeating this year but they are still a very good team and could very likely return to the World Series but I don't think this team will be able to beat the American League again in 2009.

#7 Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins
Last Year: 88-75 2nd in AL Central
This Year: 1st in AL Central



Last year the expectations were low. They had lost Johan Santana and Torii Hunter. The pitching rotation had limited experience and the lineup had a lot of youth with Carlos Gomez leading off. They surprised a lot of people by playing well all summer. They just missed out on the playoffs by losing a coin flip and then losing the tiebreaker 1-0 to Chicago. They had a very quiet winter until they signed Joe Crede in February to shore up the hole at 3rd base. This team has the youth, speed and ability to take the next step and win the division for the 5th time in 8 years.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
RF Denard Span .286 7 HR 54 RBI 27 SB
2B Alexi Casilla .274 7 HR 61 RBI 17 SB
DH Jason Kubel .276 24 HR 86 RBI
1B Justin Morneau .308 32 HR 134 RBI
3B Joe Crede .254 24 HR 79 RBI
LF Delmon Young .296 17 HR 77 RBI
C Mike Redmond .280 0 HR 27 RBI
SS Nick Punto .272 2 HR 34 RBI
CF Carlos Gomez .267 11 HR 66 RBI 41 SB

Other Players
RF Michael Cuddyer .271 15 HR 73 RBI
C Joe Mauer .317 9 HR 72 RBI

Rotation
RHP Scott Baker 13-6 3.67 ERA 148 K
LHP Francisco Liriano 15-7 2.93 ERA 171 K
RHP Kevin Slowey 11-8 3.92 ERA 132 K
LHP Glen Perkins 12-9 4.24 ERA 98 K
RHP Nick Blackburn 12-10 4.15 ERA 104 K

CP RHP Joe Nathan 1.40 ERA 41 SV 77 K

Best Case Scenario: Joe Crede stays healthy and is an All-Star Third Baseman. Joe Mauer get healthy and stays healthy contending for a third batting title. Span and Casilla don't regress off of surprise success last year. Young and Gomez continue to mature and develop. Liriano builds off his second half success last year and returns to the dominant starter he was in 2006. The bullpen becomes the typical Twins bullpen again instead of the mess it was down the stretch last year. The team cruises to an AL Central title and gets to the ALCS.

Worst Case Scenario: Span and Casilla regress becoming .240 hitters, Joe Mauer never gets fully healthy and Redmond gets 300 at-bats. Crede's back flares up leaving the Twins to need Buscher to play every day. Gomez still can't settle down and swings at anything thrown to him. Liriano's arm troubles spark up again. The bullpen is a mess and can't get the lead to Joe Nathan. This team finishes around .500 and 3rd in the AL Central.

Player Most Important to Success: Francisco Liriano. Liriano was absolutely dominant in 2006 outpitching Johan Santana who won the Cy Young that year. He then went down with Tommy John surgery and missed 2007. He was rushed back before he was ready in 2008 and was crushed. It is often forgotten that when he came back from AAA in July he went 5-1 with an ERA of 3.02 in his last 10 starts. It is typically said that you don't get fully back from Tommy John until the second year. He has pitched very well this spring and looks to be ready to claim back his crown as The Franchise. The Twins rotation is full of good pitchers who give you a chance to win but Liriano is the one pitcher who can win a game for you. That is something you need especially if you hope to do something in October. Other players: Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and Denard Span.

Outlook: Before the signing of Joe Crede there was little hype surrounding this team which I did not get. This was a very young team that was returning everyone from a team that won 88 games. If Mauer comes back and Crede stays healthy this should be the best Twins lineup they have had since 1991. They have 5 pitchers who are all capable of giving the team a quality start. One thing they need to do this year is pitch deeper into the game so the bullpen doesn't get as taxed as it did last year. They have some possible issues. Span and Casilla were pleasant surprises last year that might turn out to be one year wonders ala Lew Ford and Luis Rivas. This team can hold up for a little while without Mauer but they won't be able to go for an extended amount of time. This team also still has bullpen issues that were not addressed especially if Jose Mijares doesn't do anything this year. This team should definitely contend for the division title and win it but the question is whether this team can compete with the AL East and be more than a sweep in the ALDS. This still should a fun year for Twins fans and it is a shame it still has to be spent in the Metrodome.

#8 New York Mets

New York Mets
Last Year: 89-73 2nd in NL East
This Year: 2nd in NL East, NL Wild Card


The Mets are moving into their new digs this season and they are still being overshadowed by the Yankees who are also moving into new digs. The Mets collapsed after starting strong for the second straight time. By the end of the season, Johan Santana seemed to be the only player capable of contributing. GM Omar Minaya promised to make drastic changes but all he did was add two closers to the team. Many blamed the bullpen for the collapse but this team still has issues which could lead to finishing behind the Phillies for the third straight year.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
SS Jose Reyes .303 17 HR 69 RBI 67 SB
LF Daniel Murphy .289 10 HR 73 RBI
3B David Wright .314 32 HR 121 RBI 17 SB
1B Carlos Delgado .261 30 HR 104 RBI
CF Carlos Beltran .281 29 HR 117 RBI 20 SB
RF Ryan Church .270 15 HR 74 RBI
2B Luis Castillo .251 2 HR 31 RBI 13 SB
C Brian Schneider .247 8 HR 47 RBI
P Johan Santana

Rotation
LHP Johan Santana 17-8 2.87 ERA 194 K
RHP Mike Pelfrey 15-10 3.67 ERA 116 K
LHP Oliver Perez 14-11 4.45 ERA 173 K
RHP John Maine 15-10 3.91 ERA 167 K
RHP Livan Hernandez 6-12 5.76 ERA 78 K

CP RHP Francisco Rodriguez 2.56 ERA 41 SV 73 K

Best Case Scenario: Rodriguez and Putz close up the bullpen and make Mets games 7 inning games. Delgado still produces at age 36. Starters 2-4 stay healthy all year and give quality starts to backup ace Santana. Mets find a way to get production from hitters 6-8. Leaving Shea Stadium rids the team of the August and September demons and they finish strong down the stretch. They win the NL East and head to the World Series.

Worst Case Scenario: K-Rod is worn down from last years work load and is ineffective. Injuries riddle the rotation and the Mets need 200 innings from Livan Hernandez. Delgado's bat is too slow to keep the clean-up spot. Hitters 6-8 do nothing putting a tremendous amount of pressure on Reyes, Wright and Beltran. The team gets off to a slow start leading to mass changes with the firing of the manager and GM and this team falls apart finishing 3rd in the NL East.

Player Most Important to Success: John Maine. If the Mets are going to win the NL East they need to get quality starting pitching behind Johan Santana. Pelfrey can be relyed on for the most part and Oliver Perez will win enough games for them but John Maine is the pitcher who if he produces moves this team ahead of the Phillies with 4 quality starters. He missed last September with a bone spur in his shoulder. It should not affect him but he has been underwhelming in spring with an ERA of 10.38. If he can give them 180-190 innings with an ERA under 4.00 like he did in 2007 this team will be fine, if he can't this team might be golfing in October.

Outlook: It seemed that people thought the bullpen was the only issue facing the Mets last year. While it definitely hurt the team last year they have other issues that have not been addressed. Their lineup has serious holes with Luis Castillo at 2B and Brian Schneider at C. Livan Hernandez won the 5th spot in the rotation. This team still has weapons to compete for the division but the main question is whether the ghosts of the past two years will haunt this team and stop this team again this year. If this team does make the playoffs, the lack of All-Star pitching behind Santana won't let them advance very far if they get there.

#9 Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers
Last Year: 84-78 1st in NL West, Lost to Philadelphia in NLCS
This Year: 1st in NL West


Last year the Dodgers were a middling average team until they acquired Manny Ramirez and took off. He rejuvenated the team and the city and gave the Dodgers and exciting run that ultimately ended up a little short. After a long, withdrawn standstill Ramirez re-signed with the Dodgers and the excitement was back in Dodgerville. The question is whether they can repeat the results of last year and even get to the World Series for the first time since 1988.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
SS Rafael Furcal .286 7 HR 47 RBI 23 SB
2B Orlando Hudson .296 10 HR 61 RBI
LF Manny Ramirez .314 35 HR 118 RBI
C Russell Martin .291 16 HR 94 RBI 20 SB
CF Matt Kemp .303 22 HR 88 RBI 26 SB
1B James Loney .310 18 HR 88 RBI
RF Andre Ethier .304 24 HR 82 RBI
3B Casey Blake .268 18 HR 73 RBI
P Chad Billingsley

Rotation
RHP Chad Billingsley 18-8 3.04 ERA 204 K
RHP Hiroki Kuroda 13-10 4.12 ERA 110 K
LHP Clayton Kershaw 14-9 3.79 ERA 193 K
LHP Randy Wolf 8-11 4.76 ERA 155 K
RHP Claudio Vargas 7-13 5.13 ERA 112 K

CP RHP Jonathan Broxton 2.85 ERA 39 SV 94 K

Best Case Scenario: Ramirez repeats his tear through NL pitching winning the MVP award. Kemp, Either, Loney and Russell continue their development rounding out the best lineup in the NL. Billingsley moves into the role of ace very well. Kershaw produces for a full year living up to potential. Broxton makes Dodger games 8 inning games. The back half of the rotation provides enough innings to allow the offense to win the game. This team wins the NL West and heads to the World Series before losing to the mighty AL.

Worst Case Scenario: Ramirez does not feel like playing this year or his age catches up to him. Hudson and Furcal can't stay healthy leaving a hole in the middle of the infield. Kershaw is not ready and spends time in AAA. The back of the rotation is a disaster and no one can keep an ERA under 5. The bullpen can not get the lead to Broxton. This team finishes 2nd in the NL West.

Player Most Important to Success: Clayton Kershaw. Much was made of Ramirez in the offseason which overshadowed the departure of Brad Penny and Derek Lowe. This leaves the Dodgers very vulnerable in the rotation. Kershaw has the potential to make the Dodger fans forget all about them. Last year he was called up from AA with a Vin Scully slobbering all over him and he did not disappoint. In 21 starts he went 5-5 4.26 ERA and 100 K's in 107 IP. With a year under his belt he is being counted on to improve on those numbers. He just turned 21 on March 19 and has the weight of the franchise on his shoulders. If he can become an All-Star type pitcher he will give the Dodgers a 1-2 punch with Kuroda a decent third option. That should be enough pitching to win the division. If he falters this team will be in a dogfight all season trying to outscore opponents.

Outlook: This team has the most complete lineup in the National League. It is obvious by the fact that Casey Blake is batting 8th. There is not a weak link in that lineup except for the pitcher spot. Teams will be forced to pitch to Manny all summer because he is surrounded by players who can hit for average and have good speed. Loney, Kemp and Either are all big time breakout candidates. The thing that is stopping this team from walking into the World Series and division title is the pitching. The departure of Penny and Lowe will be felt. Having the back end of a rotation of Randy Wolf and Claudio Vargas is not an exciting prospect for any GM. That said if the Manny takeover of LA continues again this year there will be meaningful baseball in October again in Dodger Stadium.

#10 Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks
Last Year: 82-80 2nd in NL West
This Year: 2nd in NL West


Last year the Diamondbacks flew out of the gates to a 20-8 start. They were then undone by their own doing and the Dodgers acquisition of Manny Ramirez. The team filled with young players has gotten a year older and this year looks to best the Dodgers this year and make the playoffs for the second time in three years.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
2B Felipe Lopez .274 8 HR 53 RBI
SS Stephen Drew .296 24 HR 75 RBI
CF Chris B. Young .251 25 HR 87 RBI
LF Conor Jackson .294 15 HR 89 RBI
RF Justin Upton .261 23 HR 79 RBI
1B Chad Tracy .266 17 HR 75 RBI
3B Mark Reynolds .255 30 HR 78 RBI
C Chris Snyder .238 17 HR 62 RBI
P Brandon Webb

Rotation
RHP Brandon Webb 19-9 3.11 ERA 176 K
RHP Dan Haren 17-8 3.15 ERA 198 K
LHP Doug Davis 10-11 4.40 ERA 149 K
RHP Jon Garland 13-9 4.79 ERA 103 K
RHP Max Scherzer 12-8 3.15 ERA 187 K

CP RHP Chad Qualls 3.27 ERA 27 SV 73 K

Best Case Scenario: The Arizona batters learn that contact is there friend. Upton blossoms into the All-Star player he will be. Drew, Jackson and Young further their development and become a force in the middle of the lineup. Scherzer stays healthy and is an immediate ace backing up Webb and Haren. This team wins 90+ games and wins the NL West and makes noise in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: The strikeouts keep rolling as Mark Reynolds nears 250 strikeouts. Injuries riddle the rotation. Upton is still a .220 hitter. Scherzer is not ready to take the next step and also continues his shoulder struggles. Arizona can not figure out the bullpen leading to chaos and blown leads. This team finishes around .500 and might end up in 3rd place.

Player Most Important to Success: Max Scherzer. Scherzer made a lot of noise in his appearances last year with the Diamondbacks. He had an ERA of 3.05 in 7 starts and 56 IP and 66 K's in those 56 innings. The problem with Scherzer is that he has yet to throw over 100 innings in a single season yet. He is already not likely to be ready for Opening day and won't likely pitch until mid-April. If he can stay healthy he will be a very imposing 3rd starter in this rotation that will be the best in the National League. This pitching staff will be able to shut down the Dodgers lineup to win the division and will not a be a team anyone will want to face in a short series in October.

Outlook: What killed the Diamondback last year was the inability of the lineup to make contact. Mark Reynolds struck out 204 times, Chris Young struck out 165 times, Justin Upton 121 times in only 356 at bats and Stephen Drew also struck out 109 times. You can not win a lot of games with the middle of the lineup striking out 1 out every 5 at bats or worse. They absolutely have to cut down on the strikeouts and realize they don't have to swing for the fences every time. That being said the lineup has a lot of young talent that can produce throughout the lineup. If Scherzer develops this team has the best pitching staff in the NL. Webb and Haren will be able to win games for the team that they have no business winning. Those two were the only reason this team finished above .500 last year. I had this team winning the division before Manny went back to the Dodgers. While it is still close and should be a hard fought long race I think ultimately the Diamondbacks will fall short due to the lineup to the Dodgers and miss out on the playoffs again in 2009.

#11 Cleveland Indians

Cleveland Indians
Last Year: 81-81 3rd in AL Central
This Year: 2nd in AL Central


Last year Cleveland had expectations to compete for the division and take a step from 2007's run to ALCS Game 7. It quickly unraveled thanks to the disappearance of Travis Hafner and others. This lead to a sale trading away C.C. Sabathia and Casey Blake. They have re-tooled in the winter by adding Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa. A lot of outlets have the Indians as a favorite in the AL Central but they have a few holes that would need to be patched in order to do so.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
CF Grady Sizemore .281 33 HR 84 RBI 40 SB
3B Mark DeRosa .287 14 HR 76 RBI
C Victor Martinez .297 22 HR 107 RBI
DH Travis Hafner .237 19 HR 89 RBI
SS Jhonny Peralta .284 25 HR 96 RBI
RF Shin-Soo Choo .294 19 HR 83 RBI
1B Ryan Garko .267 14 HR 69 RBI
LF Ben Francisco .270 16 HR 62 RBI
2B Asdrubal Cabrera .266 8 HR 52 RBI

Rotation
LHP Cliff Lee 16-11 3.79 ERA 143 K
RHP Fausto Carmona 16-12 3.89 ERA 119 K
RHP Carl Pavano 5-9 4.98 ERA 89 K
RHP Aaron Reyes 6-12 5.34 ERA 103 K
LHP Aaron Laffey 7-8 4.12 ERA 79 K

CP RHP Kerry Wood 3.14 ERA 29 SV 78 K

Best Case Scenario: Hafner is rejuvenated and once again is a force in the middle of the lineup. Martinez and Sizemore stay healthy. DeRosa and Cliff Lee repeat the career years of last year. Kerry Wood stays healthy and is a dominant closer. Carmona bounces back and is a front-line ace again. Carl Pavano makes at least 15 starts. This team wins the AL Central.

Worst Case Scenario: Hafner can't find the power and is phased out for Matt LaPorta. Cliff Lee returns to his 4.14 career ERA and Carmona repeats last year's performance. Kerry Wood proves it wasn't just the curse of the Billy Goat and he is a oft-injured pitcher. Pavano is Carl Pavano and misses three months due to a paper cut. The team finishes below .500 and 4th in AL Central.

Player Most Important to Success: Kerry Wood. Last year Kerry Wood pitched the most innings he had since 2005 as he moved from a starter to a closer. It worked for the Cubs as he had 34 saves in 40 opportunities with an ERA of 3.26. The question is whether he can stay healthy again this year. The Cubs last year had an insurance plan of Marmol if Wood got hurt. The problem is the Indians don't. If Kerry Wood goes down the closer would likely be Rafael Betancourt who had an ERA of 5.07 last year and was 4-8 in save opportunities. If Wood is healthy they will have the lockdown closer they have not had in a long time. If he is injured this team will struggle mightily to hold leads and keep opposing teams under 6 runs with a mediocre pitching staff.

Outlook: People looking to the Indians as favorites see Sizemore, Martinez, Hafner, DeRosa, Cliff Lee, Carmona and Wood. They fail to see Hafner hit 5 homeruns and batted .197 last year. Martinez and Sizemore are often hurt. DeRosa and Lee had huge career years at age 33 and 29. Carmona had a terrible last year and ask a Cubs fan if you should bank a season on Kerry Wood. People see the names and they are more impressive than Span, Casilla, Slowey, and Kubel so they are made favorites but they have huge holes that are being overlooked. Even if Lee and Carmona pitch well they have no pitching after that. How can you pick a team that has Carl Pavano penciled in as the #3 pitcher. They have holes at LF and RF in Shin-Soo Choo and Ben Francisco. There bullpen is not very good even with a healthy Kerry Wood even worse without. This team will be decent but they are overhyped by those who see the big names and in actuality they are a .500 2nd place team.

#12 Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox
Last Year: 89-74 1st in AL Central, Lost to Tampa Bay in ALDS
This Year: 3rd in AL Central


Last year the White Sox were the beneficiary of a favorable coin toss and made the most of it beating the Twins in the tiebreaker game at Chicago 1-0 off a Jim Thome home run. In this offseason they got rid of some of their parts and have tried to get rid of more while adding none. The team is filled with aging sluggers who's best years are behind them but they still have some young talent in the lineup and pitching staff where they can still compete in the AL Central.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
CF Dewayne Wise .228 11 HR 37 RBI 21 SB
C A.J. Pierzynski .274 10 HR 57 RBI
LF Carlos Quentin .281 38 HR 112 RBI
DH Jim Thome .241 32 HR 87 RBI
RF Jermaine Dye .282 28 HR 81 RBI
1B Paul Konerko .249 24 HR 73 RBI
SS Alexei Ramirez .295 25 HR 87 RBI
3B Josh Fields .240 23 HR 65 RBI
2B Chris Getz .269 8 HR 31 RBI

Rotation
LHP Mark Buehrle 15-11 3.87 ERA 137 K
RHP Gavin Floyd 15-9 3.76 ERA 141 K
LHP John Danks 14-8 3.45 ERA 162 K
RHP Bartolo Colon 4-9 5.14 ERA 123 K
LHP Clayton Richard 5-9 5.34 ERA 84 K

CP RHP Bobby Jenks 2.89 ERA 28 SV 43 K

Best Case Scenario: Quentin proves last year wasn't a fluke and puts up MVP numbers again this year. Thome and Konerko still have one year left in them. Dye stays with the team and is able to produce. Floyd and Danks don't regress after breakout years last year. Alexei Ramirez continues to make his mark becoming the best shortstop in the AL. This team contends in the division and wins the AL Central.

Worst Case Scenerio: Thome and Konerko become irrelevent. White Sox can't find any pitching for starters 4 and 5. No true lead off or 2 hitter plaugues them all year. Quentin and Ramirez regress and Wise, Getz and Fields are AAA players. Ozzie Guillen blows up and the clubhouse goes into dissaray and this team finishes below .500 and 4th in the AL Central.

Player Most Important to Success: Alexei Ramirez. He is a Cuban defector who made a huge impact last year. He went .290-21-77-13 in 480 at bats helping make up for the loss of Carlos Quentin in September. He is not currently scheduled to be the number two hitter but he has the potential to be there this year. He is already 27 years old so it is not your typical sophomore year but he has the potential to be a .300-30-90-20 player this year. If he can produce on that level he will help form a very formidable middle of the order with him, Quentin, Thome and Konerko. If he becomes the best shortstop in the American League this will be a team that no pitcher will want to face and may repeat at AL Central Champs.

Outlook: The team unloaded Javier Vazquez, Nick Swisher, and didn't re-sign Joe Crede or Ken Griffey Jr. They also spent all winter trying to unload Jermaine Dye but didn't reach a deal. This team is in the process of fasing out the aging sluggers and moving in the young prospects. This year they are in the middle of the process. If Thome, Konerko and Dye can produce at ages 38, 35 and 33 this team will be very competitive. In the end though this team is too volatile, has no table-setters, and not enough pitching to go with the big boppers in the middle of the lineup to win the division again this year.

#13 Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers
Last Year: 90-72 2nd in NL Central, Lost to Philadelphia in NLDS
This Year: 2nd in NL Central




Last year was a year long party in Milwaukee, they made the playoffs for the first time since 1982 and had plenty of memories. From Sabathia multiple complete games to Ryan Braun walk-offs it was a season to remember. Then came the inevitable offseason in which they lost Sabathia to the Yankees and Ben Sheets. They still have a very good lineup and if they can piece together a pitching staff they can have success but not on the level or excitement that was 2008.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
2B Rickie Weeks .231 14 HR 44 RBI
SS J.J. Hardy .279 25 HR 77 RBI
LF Ryan Braun .305 39 HR 113 RBI
1B Prince Fielder .281 38 HR 108 RBI
RF Corey Hart .274 22 HR 87 RBI 23 SB
CF Mike Cameron .239 23 HR 67 RBI
3B Bill Hall .231 16 HR 56 RBI
C Jason Kendall .248 1 HR 39 RBI
P Yovani Gallardo

Rotation
RHP Yovani Gallardo 16-9 3.45 ERA 156 K
RHP Dave Bush 12-10 4.59 ERA 119 K
LHP Manny Parra 12-8 4.09 ERA 164 K
RHP Braden Looper 9-10 4.45 ERA 102 K
RHP Jeff Suppan 8-10 5.11 ERA 97 K

CP RHP Trevor Hoffman 3.83 ERA 32 SV 47 K

Best Case Scenario: Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder put up MVP numbers. Gallardo stays healthy and becomes an ace. Hoffman still has a year left in him and is a solid closer. Rickie Weeks finally stays healthy, hits for average and becomes an average defensive player. This team plays well above .500 and contends for the division and has an outside chance at the wild card.

Worst Case Scenario: Gallardo fails to stay healthy and Parra and Bush fail to step up. The bullpen falls apart. Fielder's home run production mysteriously continues to decline. Rickie Weeks is officially a bust. This team finishes just below .500.

Player Most Important to Success: Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo was a big time prospect on his way up. He proved the hype in 2007 making 17 starts with an ERA of 3.67 and 101 K's in 110 innings. He then tore is ACL and only made 4 starts in all of 2008. He did pitch well in those starts but if he was healthy the Brewers likely don't trade for Sabathia as he would have filled the role. Now Sabathia and Sheets are gone and he is being counted on being the ace. The Brewers have a good offense but as evidenced by Sabathia they need someone who can win a game for them by himself.

Outlook: Last year's team was a contender to win the World Series. Everyone thinks the Brewers will fall off the face of the earth without Sabathia. They forget that this team went 83-79 in 2007 when Braun was a rookie and without Sabathia. They may not be a title contender this year but they still have the parts of a very good team especially in the mediocre NL. Their lineup is one of the best in the league. How successful this team is will come down to the pitching. One problem they had last year was the bullpen. Sabathia hid that problem by pitching complete games. If Hoffman is too old and can't close anymore this team is in serious trouble. This team should be competing for a playoff spot but ultimately they will fall short.

#14 Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays
Last Year: 86-76 4th in AL East
This Year: 4th in AL East



It is safe to say that the Blue Jays are the best 4th place team in baseball. They have a good team but are in the wrong division. How much must it have hurt last season to see the Rays do what the Jays have tried so hard to do and pass the Yankees and Red Sox. The problem is how they go about trying to get better. They try to spend and acquire and you can not beat the Yankees that way because they will always outspend and outacquire. This season will be very familiar to Jays fans as they are a good team that has no chance to make the playoffs or contend.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
SS Marco Scutaro .261 6 HR 45 RBI
2B Aaron Hill .277 13 HR 58 RBI
RF Alex Rios .293 17 HR 83 RBI 26 SB
CF Vernon Wells .277 23 HR 89 RBI
DH Adam Lind .285 13 HR 76 RBI
3B Scott Rolen .259 11 HR 54 RBI
1B Lyle Overbay .264 14 HR 57 RBI
C Rod Barajas .241 9 HR 45 RBI
LF Travis Snider .278 16 HR 54 RBI

Rotation
RHP Roy Halladay 16-8 3.04 ERA 177 K
RHP Jesse Litsch 14-7 3.37 ERA 121 K
LHP David Purcey 8-10 4.78 ERA 121 K
RHP Casey Janssen 6-10 4.98 ERA 98 K
RHP Scott Richmond 3-8 5.23 ERA 103 K

CP LHP B.J. Ryan 3.15 ERA 29 SV 58 K

Best Case Scenario: Selig re-aligns the teams in mid season sending the Blue Jays to the NL West. Travis Snider explodes and becomes a reliable 5 hitter. Rios and Wells finally don't disappoint. Dustin McGowan comes back this year and contributes. Rolen spends the entire season pretending the baseball is Tony LaRussa. This team wins 85 or 86 games.

Worst Case Scenario: Halladay gets hurt. Snider is sent to AAA. Rolen and Overbay are totally ineffective. Fail to fill out the back half of the rotation and gets beat around by the top of the division. This team quits realizing the hill they face in the AL East and finish with 75 or 76 wins.

Player Most Important to Success: Travis Snider. He is the 6th best prospect acording to Baseball America. In only 73 at bats last year he showed glimpses of his potential going .301-2-13. He has serious .300-30-100 potential. The question is when does he realize it. If he can develop this year he can move up the lineup to the 5 hole and protect Rios and Wells better than Adam Lind. If he can hit 20+ homers this year the Blue Jays should have a solid middle of the lineup that can get them a few games.

Outlook: The Blue Jays despite the division won 86 games last year. That will be significantly more difficult this year because they lost A.J. Burnett to free agency, Shawn Marcum to Tommy John surgery and Dustin McGowan is out until the All-Star break because of his shoulder. They still have Halladay and a few decent hitters but there is not nearly enough to make a run. It must be hard to play knowing that the best they can hope for is 4th place and the worst they can do is also 4th place.

#15 Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves
Last Year: 72-90 4th in NL East
This Year: 3rd in NL East



The Braves tried to be a big player in the offseason but were less than successful. They tried all summer to get Jake Peavy in a trade. They were unsuccessful in signing A.J. Burnett. They also thought they had Rafael Furcal until he used them as leverage to return to LA. They did make some moves by signing Derek Lowe and Garret Anderson but they did not make the splash they needed to get in the conversation for the NL East.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
SS Yunel Escobar .305 12 HR 62 RBI
2B Kelly Johnson .281 14 HR 67 RBI
3B Chipper Jones .321 24 HR 88 RBI
C Brian McCann .304 22 HR 97 RBI
LF Garret Anderson .289 13 HR 78 RBI
RF Jeff Francoeur .251 15 HR 75 RBI
1B Casey Kotchman .274 12 HR 70 RBI
CF Josh Anderson .297 13 HR 49 RBI 27 SB
P Derek Lowe

Rotation
RHP Derek Lowe 14-9 3.56 ERA 142 K
RHP Javier Vazquez 12-13 4.77 ERA 189 K
RHP Jair Jurrjens 15-11 3.43 ERA 152 K
RHP Kenshin Kawakami 8-13 5.15 ERA 102 K
RHP Tommy Hanson 8-10 4.56 ERA 149 K

CP LHP Mike Gonzalez 4.45 ERA 24 SV 44 K

Best Case Scenario: Tommy Hanson makes the squad and makes an immediate impact and wins NL Rookie of the Year. Chipper Jones stays healthy and becomes a Triple Crown threat. Francouer bounces back with a decent average and power. They pull off the Peavy trade during the season boosting them to compete with the Phillies and the Mets for the wild card and division title.

Worst Case Scenario: Jones can't stay healthy and gets under 300 at bats. Tommy Hanson isn't ready and spends the year in AAA. Francouer struggles to bat above .230 and joins Hanson in AAA. Garret Anderson fails to contribute and Lowe and Vazquez fail to give quality starts or justify the offseason moves. This team finishes under .500.

Player Most Important to Success: Tommy Hanson. He is a big-time prospect. He was ranked by Baseball America as the 4th best prospect. He has been compared to Justin Verlander and Jake Peavy. Scouts are looking for him to make a Tim Lincecum impact right away. Are there any more aces I can compare him to to make my point? If he is able to come in and be a ROY canidadate he will along with Lowe and Jurrjens will form a very solid rotation. If he can't contribute this year this is just a mediocre rotation one injury away from relying on Tom Glavine.

Outlook: This team is the definition of a .500 team. They have an average lineup and an average rotation. Everything about them smacks of average. They do have a bright future with 2 of the top 5 prospects in the league and 5 in the top 100. They have the parts to swing the Peavy trade. They have a decent future but it is not this year. McCann is good but he is not a cleanup hitter. Jones is aging and never healthy. Vazquez and Garret Anderson are on a steep decline. This team does not have the horses to join the Mets and the Phillies at the top of the division, at least not this year.

#16 Oakland Athletics

Oakland Athletics
Last Year: 75-86 3rd in AL West
This Year: 2nd in AL West




The Athletics do things their own way. They find success on a very small budget. While the goal is the same as the Twins they have a lot different way of going about it. The Twins like defensive minded, fast light contact hitters. Oakland likes slow, defensively challenged hitters that either hit a home run or walk. If a player steals a base he might get benched. They have taken an interesting approach this year by spending some money in an apparent attempt to win this year. The problem is this team is not capable of winning this year.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
RF Ryan Sweeney .286 7 HR 56 RBI
SS Orlando Cabrera .273 7 HR 59 RBI
LF Matt Holliday .333 27 HR 104 RBI
DH Jason Giambi .237 26 HR 94 RBI
3B Eric Chavez .245 17 HR 65 RBI
2B Mark Ellis .239 11 HR 54 RBI
RF Jack Cust .241 35 HR 79 RBI
1B Daric Barton .232 11 HR 53 RBI
C Kurt Suzuki .271 6 HR 45 RBI

Rotation
RHP Justin Duchscherer 10-12 3.12 ERA 112 K
LHP Dana Eveland 10-9 4.45 ERA 128 K
RHP Sean Gallagher 8-12 5.35 ERA 123 K
LHP Gio Gonzalez 5-10 5.45 ERA 135 K
LHP Dallas Braden 8-6 4.23 ERA 87 K

CP RHP Joey Devine 1.79 ERA 28 SV 63 K

Best Case Scenario: Holliday's numbers don't dive despite leaving Coors for the spacious McAfee Coliseum. Giambi and Cabrera stay relevant. Duchscherer gets healthy and builds off his breakout year last year. Gallagher and Gonzalez step up in the rotation. This team competes with the Angels in the division and gets close to 90 wins.

Worst Case Scenario: The team gets off to a slow start and Cabrera and Holliday are sent packing. Duchsherer can't get healthy and doesn't pitch this year. With a lineup averaging .235 they can't win games only hitting solo home runs. They end up in 3rd place and closer to the Mariners than the Rangers and Angels.

Player Most Important Success: Matt Holliday. There is a different reason why Holliday is important. It is not because of his on-field success it is because of which field he is on. When he was traded to Oakland from Colorado heads across the nation scratched. He is a free agent after this year and there was never a chance the A's planned on giving him a long term contract. They are also not a legitimate contender this year. The question is how long is he an A. I would guess he will be gone in July for a boatload of prospects to either the Mets or Yankees needing a corner outfielder for the stretch run. If he sticks out the year they will be a decent team just because of his talent.

Outlook: This projection is based on the team they have now and Holliday staying. Their lineup is not very exciting and neither is their rotation. However, Billy Beane always gets the most out of little talent and they always have a stellar bullpen. I have no idea what Billy Beane is up to this year. He signed aging veterans Orlando Cabrera, Jason Giambi and Nomar Garciaparra. They could be solid help on a veteran team looking for a bat off the bench but that is not this team. My guess is this team will look very different in September. I think Billy is hoping Cabrera, Giambi, Nomar and Holliday get off to hot starts and he collects an entire team of prospects. It will be interesting to see the moves of this team, certainly more interesting than watching this team.

#17 Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers
Last Year: 74-88 Last in AL Central
This Year: 4th in AL Central




The Tigers went into 2008 with great expectations. There was talk of scoring 1000 runs and cruising to an World Series title. I for one was swept up in the hype. Then they had to start without sparkplug Granderson, Miguel Cabrera got off to a slow start, Sheffield and Pudge aged very quickly, Willis devolved into a AA pitcher, and Verlander and Bonderman were a disappointment. They got off to a brutal start and it all unraveled from there. While no one is predicting a World Series for the Tigers, there are a lot of people who were burned last year that are underrating this current edition.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
CF Curtis Granderson .284 24 HR 65 RBI 23 SB
2B Placido Polanco .298 6 HR 55 RBI
RF Magglio Ordonez .312 18 HR 94 RBI
1B Miguel Cabrera .313 36 HR 131 RBI
LF Carlos Guillen .283 12 HR 83 RBI
DH Gary Sheffield .237 15 HR 55 RBI
C Gerald Laird .259 6 HR 40 RBI
3B Brandon Inge .215 14 HR 54 RBI
SS Adam Everett .215 2 HR 26 RBI

Rotation
RHP Justin Verlander 13-13 3.79 ERA 174 K
RHP Armando Galarraga 14-9 3.43 ERA 139 K
RHP Jeremy Bonderman 11-13 4.14 ERA 187 K
RHP Edwin Jackson 9-12 4.73 ERA 118 K
LHP Nate Robertson 7-13 5.13 ERA 123 K

CP RHP Brandon Lyon 4.46 ERA 28 SV 49 K

Best Case Scenario: Verlander and Bonderman stay healthy and become All-Star aces. Cabrera wins the MVP and competes for the Triple Crown. Granderson burns holes in the basepaths all year. Lyon and Zumaya hold up the back-end of the bullpen. Sheffield, Ordonez, and Guillen stave off old age and retirement for one more year. The team finishes with around 90 wins and 2nd in Central.

Worst Case Scenario: Verlander and Bonderman can't get the ERA under 4.00. Zumaya pitches 5-10 innings this year. Polanco, Guillen, Ordonez and Guillen become completely irrelevant and get released. This team unloads parts for anyone who will take them. Cabrera and Granderson struggle. This team once again battles Kansas City for 4th place in the division.

Player Most Important to Success: Magglio Ordonez. This lineup is old with the exception of Cabrera and Granderson. Guillen is 33, Polanco is 33, Sheffield is 40, Everett is 32 and even Inge is 31. Out of all of them Ordonez is the one who can still contribute the most. He is 35 but still is a solid hitter. He went .317-21-103 last year. If he can equal that production it would greatly help the lineup. Not only would he be able to produce runs it will protect Miguel Cabrera and not let them just pitch around him.

Outlook: Any team with Adam Everett placed on the opening day lineup has issues. This team is full of players in the twilight of their career. However, they also have a few players in the prime of their career. Much was made of Miguel Cabrera's huge contract and early struggles but it went unnoticed that he ended up .292-37-127. He is a huge talent and is still only 26. Granderson is 28, Galarraga is 27, and Jackson is 25. Also despite seeming to be around for ever Verlander and Bonderman are only 26. This team still has young and big talent, the problem is that is not surrounded by a likewise supporting cast. This team can still score runs and has pitchers with ability but they have too many issues that were not addressed during the offseason and if they get off to another slow start I would look for a fire sale to happen.

#18 Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds
Last Year: 74-88 5th in NL Central
This Year: 3rd in NL Central



After years of talks of doing so the Reds finally rid themselves of Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. While both great players the team needed to get away from the defensively inept Dunn and the aging, oft-injured Griffey. They could contribute but they were in the way of the total rebuilding process that needed to be undertaken. This team has a lot of young super prospects and they are ready to bloom this year. There is thought that this team could be the Rays of this year but I think they are still a year away. However I thought the Rays were a year away last year.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
CF Willy Taveras .283 1 HR 25 RBI 74 SB
LF Chris Dickerson .275 17 HR 64 RBI 22 SB
1B Joey Votto .307 28 HR 97 RBI
2B Brandon Phillips .267 25 HR 93 RBI 19 SB
RF Jay Bruce .296 33 HR 104 RBI
3B Edwin Encarnacion .264 23 HR 78 RBI
C Ramon Hernandez .263 15 HR 65 RBI
SS Alex Gonzalez .264 9 HR 52 RBI
P Aaron Harang

Rotation
RHP Aaron Harang 14-10 4.14 ERA 192 K
RHP Edinson Volquez 15-10 3.45 ERA 197 K
RHP Bronson Arroyo 11-12 4.79 ERA 157 K
RHP Johnny Cueto 10-11 3.79 ERA 189 K
RHP Micah Owings 6-9 4.45 ERA 117 K

CP RHP Francisco Cordero 3.13 ERA 38 SV 73 K

Best Case Scenario: Bruce and Votto break out and become MVP like hitters hitting .315-40-120 each. Harang returns to form after a subpar year and gives the team a solid 200+ innings. Volquez continues to pitch at a Cy Young level and Cueto becomes consistent and is an All-Star. Taverez gets on base and steals more bases than Jose Reyes. This team finishes above .500 for the 1st time since 2000 and contends for the division title and wild card into September.

Worst Case Scenario: Harang continues to disappoint with an ERA in the 5.00's. Volquez gets humbled and struggles with control. Cueto struggles to keep his ERA under 5.00. Owings fails and then Homer Bailey comes in and officially becomes a bust. Bruce strikes out to much and hits around .270. Taveras hits around .240. This team finishes under .500 again and finishes in 5th place in the division.

Player Most Important to Success: Aaron Harang. It would seem likely to pick one of the major prospects like Bruce, Votto, Cueto or Volquez but Harang is the biggest piece to the puzzle. In 2006 and 2007 he won 16 games each year for a terrible Reds team with an ERA around 3.70. He pitched 230 innings in both years. He followed that up in 2008 by going 6-17 with an ERA of 4.78 in only 184 innings. This team has young outstanding pitching but every staff needs a reliable ace. Harang needs to be that ace. If he can go out every fifth game and give 7-8 quality innings that will take the pressure off the bullpen and Cueto, Owings and Volquez. He is only 30 this year so he should still have a couple more All-Star years left in him. If he returns to form this team will have a very good rotation to go with their powerful middle of the lineup.

Outlook: This team has a lot of young super-talents. Bruce is 21, Votto is 25, Encarnacion is 26, Cueto is 23 and Volquez is 25. Homer Bailey is a borderline flop but he is still only 22. This team is on the road to success. The question is whether it comes this year. I think Votto is ready to break out this year but I think it will still be another year till Bruce truly breaks out the .320-40-130 line he is capable of. That said if Harang comes back and Volquez and Cueto build off of last year this is a very dangerous team. They aren't ready to rocket like the Rays but a 90-win season is not out of the question for this team. They are a young, exciting team that will be really fun to watch this summer.

#19 Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers
Last Year: 79-83 2nd in AL West
This Year: 3rd in AL West



The Rangers have had a parade of sluggers and hitters come through Arlington. Juan Gonzalez, Ivan Rodriguez, Rafael Palmerio, Alex Rodriguez, and Mark Teixiera. This year team is no different with sluggers Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton and Hank Blalock. The problem with Texas is always the same problem that has caused them to last make the playoffs in 1999 and to have never won a playoff series. Pitching, Pitching Pitching. This team has never been able to develop pitching. This is a Texas team that will need to win a lot of 10-8 games.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
2B Ian Kinsler .309 20 HR 69 RBI 25 SB
3B Michael Young .287 10 HR 77 RBI
CF Josh Hamilton .311 36 HR 137 RBI
1B Chris Davis .287 34 HR 105 RBI
DH Hank Blalock .281 24 HR 82 RBI
RF Nelson Cruz .275 24 HR 79 RBI
LF David Murphy .283 14 HR 72 RBI
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia .263 13 HR 43 RBI
SS Elvis Andrus .243 3 HR 28 RBI 23 SB

Rotation
RHP Kevin Millwood 8-13 5.14 ERA 120 K
RHP Vicente Padilla 14-10 4.94 ERA 125 K
RHP Scott Feldman 8-10 5.23 ERA 87 K
LHP Matt Harrison 9-10 5.13 ERA 84 K
RHP Brandon McCarthy 7-9 4.77 ERA 77 K

CP RHP Frank Francisco 3.78 ERA 27 SV 84 K

Best Case Scenario: Young uber-prospects Andrus, Saltalamacchia, Davis and Cruz produce making the Rangers the best lineup in the MLB. Hamilton puts up an entire year and wins the MVP. Millwood and Padilla give quality starts and McCarthy stays healthy and produces. The rotation gives them a chance to win every game and the lineup capitalizes. This team competes with the Angels to win the AL West.

Worst Case Scenario: Blalock can't stay healthy. Cruz, Davis and Saltalamacchia stike out almost every at-bat. Millwood and Padilla struggle to keep their ERA under 6.00. McCarthy only makes 5-10 starts. Andrus is not ready yet and spends the season in AAA. Hamilton doesn't get much support behind him and sees a lot of walks. This team finshes in 3rd well below .500.

Player Most Important to Success: Brandon McCarthy. Brandon was a big-time prospect for the White Sox before being traded to the Rangers for John Danks. Since coming to the Rangers he has struggled to stay healthy making only 4 starts last year with a strained tendon in his middle finger. In 2007 he was bothered by blisters and a stress fracture in his shoulder blade. When healthy he has great stuff and an ERA around 4.30. This team needs a third decent starter. Millwood and Padilla aren't world beaters but they can give a quality start. The Rangers need a third pitcher who can do so and if McCarthy can stay healthy he can be that guy.

Outlook: The Rangers have a very strong lineup. If the young ones produce this can be the best lineup in the league. Hamilton is a major contender for the AL MVP. If this team had some semblance of a pitching staff they would be the AL West favorites, but they don't so they aren't. Texas is a hitter's park but the best Texas pitchers are those that go elsewhere. Danks and Volquez both flourished after fleeing Texas. The team has some pitchers in the pipeline but the question is how they will perform once they land in Arlington. Until this team finds an ace or two they will just be a fun team to watch that will be around the .500 mark.