Kyle Gibson: The Man, the Myth, the Legend

As May has drawn to a close, I have named Kyle Gibson as the Fourth Strike Prospect of the month for May. It is an honor I know he will always cherish as much as his future Cy Young. There was a lot of excitement when he was drafted as people imagined a Matt Garza like quick move through the minors and impact. Well, he has certainly had a Garza-like first two months as a professional. In 7 starts at Fort Myers, Gibson was 1.87 ERA 43.1 IP 40 K 1.038 WHIP. Garza in 8 Fort Myers starts was 1.42 ERA 44.1 IP 53 K .857 WHIP. Gibson similarly has moved the domination train to New Britain. In 4 starts he is 1.37 ERA 26.1 IP 23 K .949 WHIP.

The excitement about Gibson is not just the domination but how he is going about it. He has a very good 8.1 K/9 rate but if they don't strike out they will ground out. His ground out / fly out ratio is 3.48 so far on the year. Keep in mind "ground ball" pitcher Nick Blackburn has a ratio of 1.56 for the year. So to put in perspective how good his potential think of a pitcher who strikeouts players like Liriano but also gets groundballs twice as much as Blackburn. He does this with a 91-92 mph sinking fastball, a plus slider at 82-85 and a solid changeup.

Gibson was drafted in the same class as Stephen Strasburg and Mike Leake. While he will be the last one to make the majors, he certainly appears to have all the makings of joining those two to make a very impressive trio. GM Bill Smith was stated recently that they are going to limit his innings this year ending any thought he would be a September call-up or likely see the Twins this year. If Garza can be used as an example of the plan for Gibson, after 8 starts at High A he made 10 starts at AA before finishing the year at AAA with 5 more starts. Garza ended up with 135.2 innings for the year at the 3 starts. Gibson has been pitching further in starts but that would seem to be a reasonable plan for the first year.

The Twins would never admit it but they already know when he will debut barring any injuries. He will be a call-up in mid-June next year so they can delay his arbitration so those that predict he will be an opening day start don't understand the economics of the game. Until then just enjoy the ride of watching his progress in the minors.

Two Week Assumption of Twins Players

Here is a list of some position players and starters and how they have fared so far this year. A lot have room for improvement and only Perkins and maybe Kubel are playing out of their league.

• Denard Span: .300 1 HR 9 RBI 3 SB .397 OBP. He is the prototypical leadoff hitter. I was worried about him regressing, but he takes professional at-bats every single time. He should be exempt from the outfield rotation and leading off every game.
• Alexi Casilla: .196 0 HR 2 RBI 0 SB. He has struggled hitting from the right side, but he has fully come into his own playing second base. With his compact swing and speed, I am not worried about his offense yet. He will benefit a lot from having Mauer bat behind him.
• Justin Morneau: .321 2 HR 9 RBI. Same old, same old. Simply a professional hitter. He is currently on pace for .321-23-104. He is guarenteed to get at least that but should end up even better.
• Jason Kubel: .333 2 HR 12 RBI. Surprise give this guy at-bats and he produces. While his average is likely to drop, there is no reason if he gets plenty of at-bats in the 5 hole once Mauer gets back that he doesn't go .285-25-100.
• Michael Cuddyer: .235 1 HR 5 RBI. Gardenhire loves this guy symbolized by him only sitting one game so far. Why he is not platooned more I have no idea. He takes a lot of bad at-bats. It is too bad that both him and Delmon Young are right handed or else the rotation would be solved.
• Joe Crede: .175 1 HR 3 RBI. A disapointment so far. Very good defensively, but with Buscher and Harris hot so far, I wouldn't mind him sitting a few games. He should hit better once he settles into this team.
• Delmon Young: .212 1 HR 7 RBI. He is oft-maligned and took absolutely terrible at-bats swinging at every pitch. When he gets patient and takes pitches he has more success. He is better than Cuddyer if he does not force it at the plate.
• Carlos Gomez: .200 0 HR 1 RBI 2 SB. He definitely has been more patient at the plate and it is a shame it has not paid off yet. To show how important he is to the offense he has reached base 9 times with 7 hits and 2 walks and he has scored 5 times. He is also the best defensive centerfielder in the AL, he may struggle at times but he should be in the lineup close to every game.
• Brendan Harris: .407 1 HR 2 RBI. He has settled very well into his role as a bench player. He deserves to get spot starts for Casilla, Punto, and Crede. They need to use his bat while he is hitting so well, because it is not likely to last.
• Glen Perkins: 1-1 1.50 ERA 12 K. He is off to a great start and should be 3-0 but has gotten little offense behind him. He may not continue to be an ace but he looks to be a very solid starter and not the #5 starter that he came into the season as.
• Francisco Liriano: 0-3 5.09 ERA 11 K. He just can't seem to break through. In the Seattle start he was undone by a few bad pitches and someone golfing a shot out. In Chicago he was undone by a small strike zone and unraveling in one inning due to not getting calls. He seemed to be closer to reaching his potential by holding the hot Blue Jays to 1 run in 7 innings. He is still the best pitcher on this team.
• Nick Blackburn: 0-1 5.71 ERA 5 K. He is skirting the fine line between Derek Lowe and Carlos Silva. Batters are batting .310 against him. He can give the team innings but he worries me a lot because you can not continue to succeed being that hittable.
• Kevin Slowey: 2-0 5.89 ERA 12 K. Had an absolutely terrible start against the Blue Jays but fared much better against the Angels. He is the type of pitcher who needs to outsmart instead of overwhelm and he has yet to do so this year.
  

It is a Great Day in Sports

My hand might suffer a little carpal tunnel tonight as I will be furiously switching between the NCAA National Championship and the Twins Season Opener. These are the days where I wish I had two TVs in the same room.

National Championship

If you watched UNC play MSU in Ford Field in Dec. 3rd in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge, you had two thoughts. North Carolina is unbeatable and will walk to a national title and MSU will not be back to Ford Field. Well, UNC has proven throughout the season that they can be beaten and MSU has clubbed and clawed it's way into a rematch.

Why UNC will win: They are far and away the most talented team in the NCAA. This team doesn't even rely or use Hansborough that much this year. This team when it focuses can beat any team by 20 points. They are determined to win after all coming back to avenge last year's loss to Kansas.

Why MSU will win: They are the most underrated 2 seed in the history of the tournament. People are acting as if this is some Cinderella story but they are a 2 seed and if they had won the Big Ten tournament they would have been a 1 seed. This team can play fast and they can play slow. They will outrebound any team by 15. This team played UNC before without Goran Suton who has been an absolute force this tournament and should be able to control Hansborough. This team has a decided home field advantage and plenty of momentum.

Who will win: Teams have overlooked MSU all tournament only to get smacked in the mouth. UNC will not be overlooking them but they have to be thinking they are overwhelming favorites after beating them in December. The difference comes down to two things. One is the coaching, Roy Williams is a good coach and a great recruiter, but Tom Izzo is a wizard. He has outcoached Bill Self, Rick Pitino and Jim Calhoun this year. Williams is just not the game coach that Izzo is. The other difference is defense. UNC has faced this team before but they are a completely different team with Suton in the game. They will be a tougher defense than UNC has seen all year and the one UNC weakness is that they are a little soft. If MSU starts out hot and gets a lead this could be a magical night in Detroit.

Michigan St. 75, UNC 71

Opening Day

One of the best days of the year will only be diminished by the Dome for one more time. That said there is plenty of excitement surrounding the 2009 Minnesota Twins. This should be a great game with the duel between Felix Hernandez and Liriano. Seattle might steal this game due to Hernandez but the Seattle Lineup with out Ichiro is a joke. Here are the opening day lineups:

Minnesota
LF Denard Span
2B Alexi Casilla
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
DH Jason Kubel
3B Joe Crede
CF Carlos Gomez
C Mike Redmond
SS Nick Punto

Seattle
LF Endy Chavez
CF Franklin Guetierrez
DH Mike Sweeney
3B Adrian Beltre
RF Ken Griffey Jr.
2B Jose Lopez
1B Russell Branyan
C Kenji Johjima
SS Yuniesky Betancourt

Every one is looking at Young sitting and trying to read into it and make something out of it. Someone had to sit in the first game and it was Delmon Young. That being said I'm not surprised it is Delmon Young. Gardenhire loves Cuddyer and I see Gardenhire giving him all the chances in the world. I would guess it is going to be a lot of rotating and I would expect Young will be in the lineup on Tuesday. In place of who in the lineup I have no idea but this thing should play itself out that by the middle of June we will have three regular starters in the outfield and the odd man out.

If You Weren't Excited About Opening Day Enough

You have even more reasons to be pumped about Monday's opening day. Due to Scott Baker being put on the DL as a precaution, Twins fans will be treated to a matchup of Francisco Liriano versus Felix Hernandez. The Franchise versus King Felix. Two of the youngest and brightest stars in the Majors will get the season off with a bang. I have never wished for a weekend to end as much as this weekend. 2009 is about to go down and it should be an exciting and possibly great season, and Liriano versus Felix is the perfect way to kick off the season.

#7 Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins
Last Year: 88-75 2nd in AL Central
This Year: 1st in AL Central



Last year the expectations were low. They had lost Johan Santana and Torii Hunter. The pitching rotation had limited experience and the lineup had a lot of youth with Carlos Gomez leading off. They surprised a lot of people by playing well all summer. They just missed out on the playoffs by losing a coin flip and then losing the tiebreaker 1-0 to Chicago. They had a very quiet winter until they signed Joe Crede in February to shore up the hole at 3rd base. This team has the youth, speed and ability to take the next step and win the division for the 5th time in 8 years.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
RF Denard Span .286 7 HR 54 RBI 27 SB
2B Alexi Casilla .274 7 HR 61 RBI 17 SB
DH Jason Kubel .276 24 HR 86 RBI
1B Justin Morneau .308 32 HR 134 RBI
3B Joe Crede .254 24 HR 79 RBI
LF Delmon Young .296 17 HR 77 RBI
C Mike Redmond .280 0 HR 27 RBI
SS Nick Punto .272 2 HR 34 RBI
CF Carlos Gomez .267 11 HR 66 RBI 41 SB

Other Players
RF Michael Cuddyer .271 15 HR 73 RBI
C Joe Mauer .317 9 HR 72 RBI

Rotation
RHP Scott Baker 13-6 3.67 ERA 148 K
LHP Francisco Liriano 15-7 2.93 ERA 171 K
RHP Kevin Slowey 11-8 3.92 ERA 132 K
LHP Glen Perkins 12-9 4.24 ERA 98 K
RHP Nick Blackburn 12-10 4.15 ERA 104 K

CP RHP Joe Nathan 1.40 ERA 41 SV 77 K

Best Case Scenario: Joe Crede stays healthy and is an All-Star Third Baseman. Joe Mauer get healthy and stays healthy contending for a third batting title. Span and Casilla don't regress off of surprise success last year. Young and Gomez continue to mature and develop. Liriano builds off his second half success last year and returns to the dominant starter he was in 2006. The bullpen becomes the typical Twins bullpen again instead of the mess it was down the stretch last year. The team cruises to an AL Central title and gets to the ALCS.

Worst Case Scenario: Span and Casilla regress becoming .240 hitters, Joe Mauer never gets fully healthy and Redmond gets 300 at-bats. Crede's back flares up leaving the Twins to need Buscher to play every day. Gomez still can't settle down and swings at anything thrown to him. Liriano's arm troubles spark up again. The bullpen is a mess and can't get the lead to Joe Nathan. This team finishes around .500 and 3rd in the AL Central.

Player Most Important to Success: Francisco Liriano. Liriano was absolutely dominant in 2006 outpitching Johan Santana who won the Cy Young that year. He then went down with Tommy John surgery and missed 2007. He was rushed back before he was ready in 2008 and was crushed. It is often forgotten that when he came back from AAA in July he went 5-1 with an ERA of 3.02 in his last 10 starts. It is typically said that you don't get fully back from Tommy John until the second year. He has pitched very well this spring and looks to be ready to claim back his crown as The Franchise. The Twins rotation is full of good pitchers who give you a chance to win but Liriano is the one pitcher who can win a game for you. That is something you need especially if you hope to do something in October. Other players: Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and Denard Span.

Outlook: Before the signing of Joe Crede there was little hype surrounding this team which I did not get. This was a very young team that was returning everyone from a team that won 88 games. If Mauer comes back and Crede stays healthy this should be the best Twins lineup they have had since 1991. They have 5 pitchers who are all capable of giving the team a quality start. One thing they need to do this year is pitch deeper into the game so the bullpen doesn't get as taxed as it did last year. They have some possible issues. Span and Casilla were pleasant surprises last year that might turn out to be one year wonders ala Lew Ford and Luis Rivas. This team can hold up for a little while without Mauer but they won't be able to go for an extended amount of time. This team also still has bullpen issues that were not addressed especially if Jose Mijares doesn't do anything this year. This team should definitely contend for the division title and win it but the question is whether this team can compete with the AL East and be more than a sweep in the ALDS. This still should a fun year for Twins fans and it is a shame it still has to be spent in the Metrodome.