Are These Teams for Real?

As we draw a close to the second month of the baseball season, there are teams that are surprising the prognosticators who did not believe in them. I am going to look at these teams to see whether they have staying power or whether they will fade into the background.

Detroit Tigers
Record: 28-21 (1st in AL Central)
Expectations: Most had them finishing 3rd or 4th in the division and behind the Indians and Twins.
What Has Worked: Justin Verlander has been reminded that he has the stuff of a God. Edwin Jackson built off last year with the Rays and is putting up All-Star numbers. Rick Porcello has justified the Tigers who some thought were rushing the 20-year old stud. They also have a guy named Miguel Cabrera who is hitting like Miguel Cabrera going .355-10-37.
Future: The actually have room to improve. They are getting Jeremy Bonderman back soon and I would be willing to bet Magglio Ordonez is going to break out at some point and hit for power. This team was punished for last year's disappointment and not given enough credit for what they do have. It also helps that the AL Central is not really competitive at this point. Until a second team in the Central shows up they have to be the favorites to continue and win the division.

Texas Rangers
Record: 30-20 (1st in AL West)
Expectations: 2nd or 3rd in division and a distant one from the Angels.
What has Worked: The Angels have been struggling with injuries and tragedies and they have taken advantage. They have a ridiculous lineup with Ian Kinsler and Nelson Cruz leading the way. The biggest surprise is the pitching staff. They have never been able to get pitching in Texas. While it is not gangbusters the staff has allowed the 5th least runs in the AL.
Future: They do have some room for improvement with Josh Hamilton struggling to stay healthy but not much room as Nelson Cruz is a career .263 hitter hitting .299 and I still don't believe in a pitching rotation of Kevin Millwood, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Harrison and Scott Feldman. The Angels are getting healthy and are playing better. They may make it to the All-Star break but unless the Angels don't get it together they just don't have the pitching to keep it up.

Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 30-20 (1st in NL Central)
Expectations: 3rd in NL Central
What Has Worked: Yovanni Gallardo is an All-Star pitcher and has stayed healthy. The lineup has not missed a beat with Braun, Fielder, Cameron and Hardy. Most importantly though 41 year old Trevor Hoffman has yet to give up a run this season throwing 14 scoreless innings with 12 saves.
Future: This team was supposed to be left for dead with the departure of Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia. Problem no one told the Brewers. They finally have found a closer they haven't had since Coco Codero. The biggest thing is they look poised to again use their deep farm system to make an acquisition. Fans want them to make a run at Peavy but with Rickie Weeks out for the year they may address second base. At this point I still believe more in the talent of the Cubs and the Cardinals. It should be a three team race all summer long and if they make a move before the deadline they could easily win the division.

#13 Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers
Last Year: 90-72 2nd in NL Central, Lost to Philadelphia in NLDS
This Year: 2nd in NL Central




Last year was a year long party in Milwaukee, they made the playoffs for the first time since 1982 and had plenty of memories. From Sabathia multiple complete games to Ryan Braun walk-offs it was a season to remember. Then came the inevitable offseason in which they lost Sabathia to the Yankees and Ben Sheets. They still have a very good lineup and if they can piece together a pitching staff they can have success but not on the level or excitement that was 2008.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
2B Rickie Weeks .231 14 HR 44 RBI
SS J.J. Hardy .279 25 HR 77 RBI
LF Ryan Braun .305 39 HR 113 RBI
1B Prince Fielder .281 38 HR 108 RBI
RF Corey Hart .274 22 HR 87 RBI 23 SB
CF Mike Cameron .239 23 HR 67 RBI
3B Bill Hall .231 16 HR 56 RBI
C Jason Kendall .248 1 HR 39 RBI
P Yovani Gallardo

Rotation
RHP Yovani Gallardo 16-9 3.45 ERA 156 K
RHP Dave Bush 12-10 4.59 ERA 119 K
LHP Manny Parra 12-8 4.09 ERA 164 K
RHP Braden Looper 9-10 4.45 ERA 102 K
RHP Jeff Suppan 8-10 5.11 ERA 97 K

CP RHP Trevor Hoffman 3.83 ERA 32 SV 47 K

Best Case Scenario: Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder put up MVP numbers. Gallardo stays healthy and becomes an ace. Hoffman still has a year left in him and is a solid closer. Rickie Weeks finally stays healthy, hits for average and becomes an average defensive player. This team plays well above .500 and contends for the division and has an outside chance at the wild card.

Worst Case Scenario: Gallardo fails to stay healthy and Parra and Bush fail to step up. The bullpen falls apart. Fielder's home run production mysteriously continues to decline. Rickie Weeks is officially a bust. This team finishes just below .500.

Player Most Important to Success: Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo was a big time prospect on his way up. He proved the hype in 2007 making 17 starts with an ERA of 3.67 and 101 K's in 110 innings. He then tore is ACL and only made 4 starts in all of 2008. He did pitch well in those starts but if he was healthy the Brewers likely don't trade for Sabathia as he would have filled the role. Now Sabathia and Sheets are gone and he is being counted on being the ace. The Brewers have a good offense but as evidenced by Sabathia they need someone who can win a game for them by himself.

Outlook: Last year's team was a contender to win the World Series. Everyone thinks the Brewers will fall off the face of the earth without Sabathia. They forget that this team went 83-79 in 2007 when Braun was a rookie and without Sabathia. They may not be a title contender this year but they still have the parts of a very good team especially in the mediocre NL. Their lineup is one of the best in the league. How successful this team is will come down to the pitching. One problem they had last year was the bullpen. Sabathia hid that problem by pitching complete games. If Hoffman is too old and can't close anymore this team is in serious trouble. This team should be competing for a playoff spot but ultimately they will fall short.