Sunday, April 26, 2009

Twins Prospect Power Rankings - Week 3

1. 3B Danny Valencia AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 1
Age: 24
Stats: .309 2 HR 6 RBI
Was a single short of the cycle on Sunday. He has an OPS of .978 so far. He has all the look of the perennial .300 hitter.

2. C Wilson Ramos AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 2
Age: 24
Stats: .250 1 HR 7 RBI
He is struggling a little at the plate, so far but he still has the talent. The success of Jose Morales for the Twins is creating even more of a logjam at the catcher position.

3. OF Ben Revere High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: 4
Age: 20
Stats: .290 1 HR 12 RBI 7 SB
Has continued to hit and steal bases in a very pitcher-friendly league. He is the real deal.

4. OF Aaron Hicks Rookie - Elizabethton
Previous Rank: 3
Age: 19
Stats: N/A

5. RHP Anthony Slama AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 5
Age: 25
Stats: 7.2 IP 0.00 ERA 15 K
He is an absolute stud only giving up 4 hits and 2 walks so far this season. He will be in the majors at some point this season.

6. 3B Luke Hughes AAA - Rochester
Previous Rank: 7
Age: 24
Stats: .245 3 HR 14 RBI
His average may not be ideal but he is doing very well as a force in the middle of the Rochester lineup.

7. RHP Anthony Swarzak AAA - Rochester
Previous Rank: 6
Age: 23
Stats: 17 IP 1.59 ERA 11 K .88 WHIP
His team must hate him because he is 0-3 in 3 starts with a 1.59 ERA. With Humber clearing waivers it is unlikely he will get a call to the majors this year, but he is on track to get a chance as a starter down the line.

8. RHP Carlos Guetierrez High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: 9
Age: 22
Stats: 18 IP 0.50 ERA 9 K 0.56 WHIP
Strikeout rate is not very high, but he is dominating High A ball and should get moved up to New Britain by June.

9. OF Joe Benson High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: 10
Age: 21
Stats: .314 1 HR 8 RBI 2 SB
Continues to hit for a good average and the important thing is that he is still healthy given his history.

10. 1B/OF Chris Parmelee High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: NR
Age: 21
Stats: .182 3 HR 9 RBI
Is very similar to Adam Dunn. He is either going to hit a home run, strikeout or walk and each is equally likely. Hitting 3 home runs in the FSL is an accomplishment. He far and away has the most power in the Twins system, but in the Twins system he will need to improve the average.

Promoted off List: Jose Mijares

The Joe Mauer Lineup Conundrum

We are all looking forward to the return of Joe Mauer next weekend, but his return will pose an interesting question on how to structure the lineup. Jason Kubel and Justin Morneau have been far and away our two best hitters so far batting back to back. If you are to put Joe Mauer in front them then you have three left-handed hitters in a row. That is not something any manager likes to do although Philadelphia is currently doing it with Utley-Howard-Ibanez. I don't think that is something Gardenhire would like to do but the question is whether he even has a chance.

One option is to bat Mauer 2nd and put a righthander in the 3 hole. The problem is Mauer does not like batting second and who do you put in the 3 hole. This would be the solution if Cuddyer, Crede or Young were hitting well but they are all around the Mendoza line. The other option is to put a righthander between Morneau and Kubel but then you have the team's rbi leader batting 6th in Kubel and I don't think the Twins want to break up Kubel and Morneau.

I don't think the Twins currently have a choice but to bat them in a row, at least until a right hander starts to hit consistently. I also think it can work because they all do hit left-handed pitchers reasonably well. Mauer is a .300 hitter in his career against lefties, Morneau is only .261 against lefties for his career but hit .284 last year and is actually hitting .417 so far this year, and Kubel is 3 for 8 so far this season against lefties.

It is not ideal but I think the Twins don't have a choice since the three are their best hitters. I think this is what the lineup will look like when Mauer returns.

RF/LF Denard Span
2B Alexi Casilla / Brendan Harris
C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
DH Jason Kubel
3B Joe Crede
LF/RF Delmon Young / Michael Cuddyer
SS Nick Punto
CF Carlos Gomez

Friday, April 24, 2009

The Beast that is Justin Morneau

I thought I would do a post professing my love for Justin Morneau since I don't think he gets the attention and praise he deserves. This was brought up by Peter Gammons on the Mike and Mike Show today. He listed Joe Mauer as one of the players he would like to build a team around. Mauer is good and yes two batting titles is impressive but I would rather build the team around Justin.

We have seen in these 3 weeks what this team would look like without Mauer and while it isn't that good this team is functioning. Imagine this team without Justin Morneau in the middle of the lineup. It should be noted that we can only imagine since he has yet to get injured for a significant period of time. Who would hit for power? Who would be a threat? Who would drive in the runs?

Morneau has driven in over 100 rbi's for three consecutive seasons, and while we take that for granted Kirby Puckett went over 100 rbi's only three times in his career. Kent Herbek only hit over 100 rbi's once in his career. If he gets over 100 rbi's this year he will do something Harmon Killebrew never even did. In those 3 years he has driven in 370 runs. Only Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard have driven in more runs in that time. He drove in more runs as such stalwarts as Albert Pujols, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and David Wright.

He has hit over 20 home runs four straight years and was the first Twin to hit over 30 home runs since Hrbek in 1987. In the last three years he has hit 115 doubles and 88 home runs. It is also forgotten that he is one of the best defensive first basemen in the game and should win multiple Gold Gloves before he is done. I know winning batting titles is special, but I would take Morneau's bat and the assurance that he will be in the lineup every day over Joe Mauer's .330 all single average any day.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Two Week Assumption of Twins Players

Here is a list of some position players and starters and how they have fared so far this year. A lot have room for improvement and only Perkins and maybe Kubel are playing out of their league.
  • Denard Span: .300 1 HR 9 RBI 3 SB .397 OBP. He is the prototypical leadoff hitter. I was worried about him regressing, but he takes professional at-bats every single time. He should be exempt from the outfield rotation and leading off every game.
  • Alexi Casilla: .196 0 HR 2 RBI 0 SB. He has struggled hitting from the right side, but he has fully come into his own playing second base. With his compact swing and speed, I am not worried about his offense yet. He will benefit a lot from having Mauer bat behind him.
  • Justin Morneau: .321 2 HR 9 RBI. Same old, same old. Simply a professional hitter. He is currently on pace for .321-23-104. He is guarenteed to get at least that but should end up even better.
  • Jason Kubel: .333 2 HR 12 RBI. Surprise give this guy at-bats and he produces. While his average is likely to drop, there is no reason if he gets plenty of at-bats in the 5 hole once Mauer gets back that he doesn't go .285-25-100.
  • Michael Cuddyer: .235 1 HR 5 RBI. Gardenhire loves this guy symbolized by him only sitting one game so far. Why he is not platooned more I have no idea. He takes a lot of bad at-bats. It is too bad that both him and Delmon Young are right handed or else the rotation would be solved.
  • Joe Crede: .175 1 HR 3 RBI. A disapointment so far. Very good defensively, but with Buscher and Harris hot so far, I wouldn't mind him sitting a few games. He should hit better once he settles into this team.
  • Delmon Young: .212 1 HR 7 RBI. He is oft-maligned and took absolutely terrible at-bats swinging at every pitch. When he gets patient and takes pitches he has more success. He is better than Cuddyer if he does not force it at the plate.
  • Carlos Gomez: .200 0 HR 1 RBI 2 SB. He definitely has been more patient at the plate and it is a shame it has not paid off yet. To show how important he is to the offense he has reached base 9 times with 7 hits and 2 walks and he has scored 5 times. He is also the best defensive centerfielder in the AL, he may struggle at times but he should be in the lineup close to every game.
  • Brendan Harris: .407 1 HR 2 RBI. He has settled very well into his role as a bench player. He deserves to get spot starts for Casilla, Punto, and Crede. They need to use his bat while he is hitting so well, because it is not likely to last.
  • Glen Perkins: 1-1 1.50 ERA 12 K. He is off to a great start and should be 3-0 but has gotten little offense behind him. He may not continue to be an ace but he looks to be a very solid starter and not the #5 starter that he came into the season as.
  • Francisco Liriano: 0-3 5.09 ERA 11 K. He just can't seem to break through. In the Seattle start he was undone by a few bad pitches and someone golfing a shot out. In Chicago he was undone by a small strike zone and unraveling in one inning due to not getting calls. He seemed to be closer to reaching his potential by holding the hot Blue Jays to 1 run in 7 innings. He is still the best pitcher on this team.
  • Nick Blackburn: 0-1 5.71 ERA 5 K. He is skirting the fine line between Derek Lowe and Carlos Silva. Batters are batting .310 against him. He can give the team innings but he worries me a lot because you can not continue to succeed being that hittable.
  • Kevin Slowey: 2-0 5.89 ERA 12 K. Had an absolutely terrible start against the Blue Jays but fared much better against the Angels. He is the type of pitcher who needs to outsmart instead of overwhelm and he has yet to do so this year.

Monday, April 20, 2009

MLB Power Rankings - Week 2

1. Chicago Cubs
Previous Rank: 2
Record: 7-4
Took 2 out of 3 from main challengers in St. Louis and the lineup is producing without much help yet from Geovanny Soto, Milton Bradley and Derrek Lee.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous Rank: 9
Record: 10-3
Simply has the best lineup in the NL and maybe all of the majors. Billingsley and Kershaw have pitched like absolute aces so far.

3. Toronto Blue Jays
Previous Rank: 7
Record: 10-4
Lineup has been amazing so far but the team has yet to play the powers of the AL East and I am still unconvinced they are a legitimate threat to win the AL East.

4. Florida Marlins
Previous Rank: 8
Record: 11-1
Off to a torrid start and could very well win the NL East this year with that pitching staff, but they have already played 6 games against Washington.

5. New York Yankees
Previous Rank: 5
Record: 7-6
This team would be a lot better if they stopped throwing Chein-Ming Wang out there every 5th game. The Yankees are 7-3 in games that Wang does not pitch.

6. Boston Red Sox
Previous Rank: 4
Record: 7-6
They have a decision on what to do with David Ortiz as he is hitting .170 with 0 home runs. He is not the force he used to be.

7. Saint Louis Cardinals
Previous Rank: 14
Record: 8-5
The team is off to a great start due to Albert Pujols (whose Sportscenter commercial I love) in full effect. The question is whether they can survive without Chris Carpenter. They won't win the NL Central but they are a threat to win the Wild Card.

8. Tampa Bay Rays
Previous Rank: 1
Record: 5-8
This team is struggling to get production out of Upton, Crawford and Burrell so far, but the team does not need to panic yet. The bullpen on the other hand is a big issue.

9. Chicago White Sox
Previous Rank: 15
Record: 7-5
Carlos Quentin is mashing just as like last year as he leads the majors with 7 home runs. Just think how many he will hit when it warms up in Chicago. He could hit 50 this year.

10. New York Mets
Previous Rank: 6
Record: 6-6
They are struggling to find pitching after Johan, but Pelfrey and Maine are better than their 8 and 7 ERA's show. They should still contend in the NL East.

11. Detroit Tigers
Previous Rank: 13
Record: 7-5
This team is playing well and might actually be getting Joel Zumaya back. Miguel Cabrera is an absolute masher.

12. Atlanta Braves
Previous Rank: 9
Record: 6-6
Fell back to earth by getting swept by the Marlins but they still have enough pitching and hitting to compete with the Marlins and the rest of the NL East.

13. Minnesota Twins
Previous Rank: 10
Record: 7-7
The bullpen is a big concern especially with Jesse Crain headed for the DL, but the rotation is starting to look better and if Glen Perkins keeps pitching 8 innings it might not be such a huge problem.

14. Philadelphia Phillies
Previous Rank: 12
Record: 5-6
The lineup is producing as Raul Ibanez has made the transition to Philly very nicely, but if Cole Hamels can not turn it around they have no chance of winning the NL East.

15. Los Angeles Angels
Previous Rank: 3
Record: 4-8
I don't know what this organization did but they seem to be cursed. John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Kelvim Escobar, Dustin Moseley, and Vladimir Guerrero are all on the DL and they have to still deal with the tragedy of Nick Adnehart. If they can get healthy they should still win the AL West.

16. Cincinnati Reds
Previous Rank: 21
Record: 6-5
Is over .500 despite slow starts by Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Jonny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez. That could be attributed to playing Pittsburgh, Houston and Milwaukee.

17. Kansas City Royals
Previous Rank: 23
Record: 7-5
Zach Grienke is out of the gates fast with a 34 inning scoreless streak dating back to last year, but they will be without Alex Gordon for two months. I just don't see enough offense to win or compete in the AL Central.

18. Seattle Mariners
Previous Rank: 22
Record: 8-5
The team will hold 1st place in the AL West due to Bedard and Felix until the Angels decide to get healthy and take it back.

19. San Diego Padres
Previous Rank: 27
Record: 9-4
They have not cooled down yet beating the Mets and Phillies, but I still refuse to believe in this team. The only thing is this start will lead to them keeping Peavy and Chris Young until the All-Star break instead of the end of May.

20. Oakland A's
Previous Rank: 19
Record: 5-7
Taking 2 out of 3 from Boston was good and despite of going 1-2 against Toronto holding them to only 10 runs in 3 games is something to hang your hat on. The problem is Holliday and Giambi have yet to hit a home run. The team only has 3 home runs total.

21. Texas Rangers
Previous Rank: 18
Record: 5-7
This team is fun to watch unless you want them to win or you like pitching. 80 runs in 12 games is astonishing. The real astonishing thing is they are doing that while Josh Hamilton and Chris Davis are slumping.

22. Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous Rank: 16
Record: 4-8
The team is really missing Brandon Webb who should be back in the next two weeks, but the question is whether the team can improve on its .215 batting average. The offense will likely keep them from competing with the Dodgers this year.

23. Milwaukee Brewers
Previous Rank: 17
Record: 4-8
A poor start by Yovanni Gallardo has really hurt this team as the pitching staff lacks depth. But a schedule of Mets, Cubs and Reds have also contributed to a slow start.

24. Cleveland Indians
Previous Rank: 20
Record: 4-9
Improved slightly this week taking advantage of the Chein-Ming Wang and a good start by Cliff Lee but the pitching is just not good enough.

25. Baltimore Orioles
Previous Rank: 24
Record: 6-7
The were given a large dose of reality by being swept by the Red Sox. It may be a long season but Adam Jones so far looks like an absolute stud and #1 prospect Matt Wieters should be called up within the month.

26. Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous Rank: 29
Record: 6-6
Great starts by Paul Moholm or Zach Duke and enough pieces in the lineup should make this team not the worst in the MLB.

27. San Francisco Giants
Previous Rank: 26
Record: 4-8
Finally got a good start by Lincecum and Randy Johnson took a no-hitter to the 7th inning. They just don't have the offense to compete but could work it's way up to a .500 team.

28. Colorado Rockies
Previous Rank: 25
Record: 4-7
Terrible bullpen and pitching has been a problem but this team has had to play the Dodgers, Cubs, and the Phillies so far. That would raise any pitching staff's ERA.

29. Houston Astros
Previous Rank: 28
Record: 4-8
Being swept by the Cardinals and the Reds solidifies their status as a second-class citizen in the NL Central. They for some reason used this to give manager Cecil Cooper an extension.

30. Washington Nationals
Previous Rank: 30
Record: 1-10
This franchise is an absolute disgrace as they blew 9th inning leads in all 3 games to the Marlins and even the jersey makers don't care about this team.

Stud of the Week: Ian Kinsler, TEX
Stats: .555 2 HR 6 RBI 6 SB
Honorable Mention: Zach Grienke, Matt Kemp, Carlos Pena, Carlos Quentin, Chad Billingsley, Glen Perkins

Dud of the Week: Chien-Ming Wang, NYY
Stats: 2 Starts 2.1 IP 16 ER 14 Hits 2 K
Dishonorable Mention: Saul Rivera, Zach Miner, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ryan Spilboroghs, Jordan Schafer, Randy Winn

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Twins Prospect Power Rankings - Week 2

1. 3B Danny Valencia AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 1
Age: 24
Stats: .314 1 HR 2 RBI
Hasn't shown much power but has shown patience at the plate with 10 walks and a OBP of .478.

2. C Wilson Ramos AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 2
Age: 21
Stats: .220 1 HR 5 RBI
Has been a little streaky so far at the plate, but does not look overwhelmed at the AA level.

3. OF Aaron Hicks Rookie - Elizabethton
Previous Rank: 3
Age: 19
Stats: N/A

4. OF Ben Revere High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: 6
Age: 20
Stats: .316 1 HR 8 RBI 4 SB
Has continued to hit well at Fort Myers. Has hit .438 in the last 5 games.

5. RHP Anthony Slama AA - New Britain
Previous Rank: 5
Age: 24
Stats: 5 IP 0.00 ERA 9 K
Has continued his domination in AA. With the Twins bullpen issues it is very possible to see him up with the big club later this year at least by September.

6. RHP Anthony Swarzak AAA - Rochester
Previous Rank: 7
Age: 23
Stats: 2 Starts, 11 IP 0.82 ERA 9 K
Has had two very good starts with a WHIP of 0.82. Would likely be the first call-up to the rotation should someone go down for an extended period of time. That would change it Humber somehow clears waivers.

7. 3B Luke Hughes AAA - Rochester
Previous Rank: 4
Age: 24
Stats: .219 1 HR 8 RBI
Is struggling to hit for average and already has 4 errors on the season. Not a very good start.

8. LHP Jose Mijares AAA - Rochester
Previous Rank: 9
Age: 24
Stats: 6.1 IP 0.00 ERA 4 K
Has seemed to have bounced back for terrible spring with only 1 walk in over 6 innings. If he continues he should be moved up to the Majors by May.

9. RHP Carlos Gutierrez High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: 8
Age: 22
Stats: 2 Starts 11 IP 0.82 ERA 8 K
The talk through the organization is that he could move up very quickly. With starts like he has had so far he could be in New Britain by June.

10. OF Joe Benson High A - Fort Myers
Previous Rank: NR
Age: 21
Stats: .343 1 HR 7 RBI 1 SB
Has been set back by injuries so far in his minor league career but is a great athlete and has gotten off to a very good start so far this year.

Fell out of rankings: Shooter Hunt

Friday, April 17, 2009

Weekend Preview

With baseball in full gear and NHL and NBA playoffs starting the two month long playoff season, there is a lot for a sports fan to watch. Here is some of the things I look forward to watching.
  • Royce White will be involved in the Jordan Brand Classic on Saturday at 7pm on ESPN2. He will be competing against the best high school players in the nation, many of which are McDondald's All-Americans. It will be a very good measuring stick of what kind of expectations we should have for the kid when he hits campus next fall.
  • The Twins welcome Torii Hunter and the Los Angeles Angels into town for 3 games. The Twins have gotten off to an underwhelming start but it still should be fun to see Torii Hunter patrol centerfield in the Metrodome again. I will be attending the game on Sunday and hope to see another great start from Glen Perkins.
  • The NHL Playoffs started on Wednesday and have plenty of games on Versus or NBC this weekend. Teams I am cheering for: Boston Bruins (have Wheeler and Kessel) and the San Jose Sharks (like J0e Thorton and they can stop the hated Detroit Red Wings).
  • The NBA Playoffs start on Saturday and some of the steam has gotten taken out with Garnett missing the playoffs and wrecking the Celtics chances to repeat. Games will be on ABC, ESPN or TNT. Teams I am cheering for: Miami Heat (Wade is my favorite player and a big Beasley fan), Orlando Magic (Dwight Howard is an absolute beast), and the Portland Trail Blazers (He has started slow but I'm still a Greg Oden fan).