Are These Teams for Real?

As we draw a close to the second month of the baseball season, there are teams that are surprising the prognosticators who did not believe in them. I am going to look at these teams to see whether they have staying power or whether they will fade into the background.

Detroit Tigers
Record: 28-21 (1st in AL Central)
Expectations: Most had them finishing 3rd or 4th in the division and behind the Indians and Twins.
What Has Worked: Justin Verlander has been reminded that he has the stuff of a God. Edwin Jackson built off last year with the Rays and is putting up All-Star numbers. Rick Porcello has justified the Tigers who some thought were rushing the 20-year old stud. They also have a guy named Miguel Cabrera who is hitting like Miguel Cabrera going .355-10-37.
Future: The actually have room to improve. They are getting Jeremy Bonderman back soon and I would be willing to bet Magglio Ordonez is going to break out at some point and hit for power. This team was punished for last year's disappointment and not given enough credit for what they do have. It also helps that the AL Central is not really competitive at this point. Until a second team in the Central shows up they have to be the favorites to continue and win the division.

Texas Rangers
Record: 30-20 (1st in AL West)
Expectations: 2nd or 3rd in division and a distant one from the Angels.
What has Worked: The Angels have been struggling with injuries and tragedies and they have taken advantage. They have a ridiculous lineup with Ian Kinsler and Nelson Cruz leading the way. The biggest surprise is the pitching staff. They have never been able to get pitching in Texas. While it is not gangbusters the staff has allowed the 5th least runs in the AL.
Future: They do have some room for improvement with Josh Hamilton struggling to stay healthy but not much room as Nelson Cruz is a career .263 hitter hitting .299 and I still don't believe in a pitching rotation of Kevin Millwood, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Harrison and Scott Feldman. The Angels are getting healthy and are playing better. They may make it to the All-Star break but unless the Angels don't get it together they just don't have the pitching to keep it up.

Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 30-20 (1st in NL Central)
Expectations: 3rd in NL Central
What Has Worked: Yovanni Gallardo is an All-Star pitcher and has stayed healthy. The lineup has not missed a beat with Braun, Fielder, Cameron and Hardy. Most importantly though 41 year old Trevor Hoffman has yet to give up a run this season throwing 14 scoreless innings with 12 saves.
Future: This team was supposed to be left for dead with the departure of Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia. Problem no one told the Brewers. They finally have found a closer they haven't had since Coco Codero. The biggest thing is they look poised to again use their deep farm system to make an acquisition. Fans want them to make a run at Peavy but with Rickie Weeks out for the year they may address second base. At this point I still believe more in the talent of the Cubs and the Cardinals. It should be a three team race all summer long and if they make a move before the deadline they could easily win the division.

#19 Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers
Last Year: 79-83 2nd in AL West
This Year: 3rd in AL West



The Rangers have had a parade of sluggers and hitters come through Arlington. Juan Gonzalez, Ivan Rodriguez, Rafael Palmerio, Alex Rodriguez, and Mark Teixiera. This year team is no different with sluggers Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton and Hank Blalock. The problem with Texas is always the same problem that has caused them to last make the playoffs in 1999 and to have never won a playoff series. Pitching, Pitching Pitching. This team has never been able to develop pitching. This is a Texas team that will need to win a lot of 10-8 games.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections
2B Ian Kinsler .309 20 HR 69 RBI 25 SB
3B Michael Young .287 10 HR 77 RBI
CF Josh Hamilton .311 36 HR 137 RBI
1B Chris Davis .287 34 HR 105 RBI
DH Hank Blalock .281 24 HR 82 RBI
RF Nelson Cruz .275 24 HR 79 RBI
LF David Murphy .283 14 HR 72 RBI
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia .263 13 HR 43 RBI
SS Elvis Andrus .243 3 HR 28 RBI 23 SB

Rotation
RHP Kevin Millwood 8-13 5.14 ERA 120 K
RHP Vicente Padilla 14-10 4.94 ERA 125 K
RHP Scott Feldman 8-10 5.23 ERA 87 K
LHP Matt Harrison 9-10 5.13 ERA 84 K
RHP Brandon McCarthy 7-9 4.77 ERA 77 K

CP RHP Frank Francisco 3.78 ERA 27 SV 84 K

Best Case Scenario: Young uber-prospects Andrus, Saltalamacchia, Davis and Cruz produce making the Rangers the best lineup in the MLB. Hamilton puts up an entire year and wins the MVP. Millwood and Padilla give quality starts and McCarthy stays healthy and produces. The rotation gives them a chance to win every game and the lineup capitalizes. This team competes with the Angels to win the AL West.

Worst Case Scenario: Blalock can't stay healthy. Cruz, Davis and Saltalamacchia stike out almost every at-bat. Millwood and Padilla struggle to keep their ERA under 6.00. McCarthy only makes 5-10 starts. Andrus is not ready yet and spends the season in AAA. Hamilton doesn't get much support behind him and sees a lot of walks. This team finshes in 3rd well below .500.

Player Most Important to Success: Brandon McCarthy. Brandon was a big-time prospect for the White Sox before being traded to the Rangers for John Danks. Since coming to the Rangers he has struggled to stay healthy making only 4 starts last year with a strained tendon in his middle finger. In 2007 he was bothered by blisters and a stress fracture in his shoulder blade. When healthy he has great stuff and an ERA around 4.30. This team needs a third decent starter. Millwood and Padilla aren't world beaters but they can give a quality start. The Rangers need a third pitcher who can do so and if McCarthy can stay healthy he can be that guy.

Outlook: The Rangers have a very strong lineup. If the young ones produce this can be the best lineup in the league. Hamilton is a major contender for the AL MVP. If this team had some semblance of a pitching staff they would be the AL West favorites, but they don't so they aren't. Texas is a hitter's park but the best Texas pitchers are those that go elsewhere. Danks and Volquez both flourished after fleeing Texas. The team has some pitchers in the pipeline but the question is how they will perform once they land in Arlington. Until this team finds an ace or two they will just be a fun team to watch that will be around the .500 mark.