Michigan Review

It took me this long to be able to write about this game. I still don't fully understand how we lost that game. The Gophers played 35 minutes of some of the best basketball all year. They were making crisp passes, shooting and everyone was contributing. Then it just stopped. Westbrook tried taking it all on himself but we weren't playing the Badgers so it was unsuccessful. We shot 55%, 94.7% from the free throw line. We outrebounded them 30-13 but we lost.

There were a lot of questions with the amount of useage of the seniors JAS and Williams. JAS justified his by putting up 10 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists in 20 minutes. Williams did not do so getting 2 points, 3 rebounds and 3 turnovers in 16 minutes. It frustrated me to no end the fact that he played 16 minutes and Colton did not play. I then found that Iverson was injured during practice and was unable to play.

Looking back with sme clarity and understanding there were two reasons for the loss. One is the continued lack of someone who can consistently carry the team and take the big shots down the stretch of the game. The other was the foul trouble of Damian Johnson. He sets the intensity of the defense. He got his 4th foul around 8 minutes left. He came back with 4 minutes left but he played timid. He was scared of picking up the 5th foul so he lacked the defensive intensity of the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. Michigan scored at will down the stretch and the defense that we have come used to wasn't there and it was due to DJ being in foul trouble. It was evident in DeShawn Sims ending up with 24 points.

Coming into this homestand I believed we needed to win both games to make the tournament, but with other teams blowing their chances (Kentucky, Penn State, Maryland, etc.) the Gophers are not out of it at all. As the 8 seed in the Big Ten tournament they will play Northwestern in the first round. I believe that if they beat Northwestern on Thursday they will be in the tournament. No one will expect them to then beat Michigan State so it will not hurt to lose in the quarterfinals as long as they don't get totally embarassed. It won't be for sure if they only beat Northwestern but I would expect them to make it. It would also help if Penn State loses right away and there are no major upsets in the other tournaments. Here is the bracket for the Big Ten tournament.

Stats of the Game

• 18: Turnovers by the Gophers. For a team with offensive problems it does us no favors turning the ball over as much as we do. Interestingly, the only Gopher who did not turn the ball over is much-maligned Al Nolen. DJ, Williams and Westbrook lead with 3 turnovers each.
• 4-32: Gophers behind the arc in the last 3 games. The way college basketball is played it is a shock we even won one of the three games. I'm worried that with all the hype of next year's team the lack of outside shooting will undue us next year also. We need Hoffarber and Joseph.
• February 4: The last time Westbrook missed a free throw. He is 21-21 since then. I have never been a huge Westbrook fan but he is 88% from the line this year and it has helped us down the stretch in a few games this year.
  

Michigan Review

We have officially have hit zero on the margin of error scale. The Gophers have three home games remaining and assuming they won't win at Illinois they will need to win all three games at home. All three games (Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan) are winnable but they have no room for a bad game or a slip up. They have to turn it around but it helps they head back to the friendly confines. It is hard to know how much of the slump can be attributed to being on the road or how much is the struggling of the Gophers.

It is hard to think with the struggles that if the season ended today the Gophers would still likely be in the tournament. There RPI is still 38. They are higher than teams like Gonzaga, Arizona, Texas and Florida . That said I don't think they can go 2-2 and make the tournament unless they make a serious run in the Big Ten tournament.

On to the game itself. It comes down to one simple reason that I didn't think would be a problem. Defense. They had no perimeter defense allowing Michigan to make 13 3-pointers. It is no secret that the Gophers love the blocked shot and so Michigan would penetrate and the whole team would converge looking for the block and he would simply kick it out to a wide open shooter and they hit it. The other issue was getting back on defense. There were multiple times the Wolverines just beat the defense down the court and got easy layups and dunks.

The Gophers player of the game is the same as last game. Devoe Joseph again lead the team in scoring with 14 points and 4 assists. We wasn't as hot as he was against Penn State but still went 5-9 and 3-6 from behind the arc. He got significant playing time with 31 minutes and Nolen only had 18 minutes. I would look for Joseph to start in place of Westbrook on Sunday which would be good because Westbrook is my least favorite player and he showed why again yesterday. This team is lacking a leader and he is an anti-leader. He is selfish with the ball and if he is not scoring he does nothing else, he doesn't play defense and gives no effort what so ever. He got 12 points yesterday but it took him 15 shots to do so. I can't wait till we get more talent next year so Westbrook can fade to the background and we don't need him.

Stats of the Game

• 28: Points scored by Michigan inside the 3 point arc. 39 points came from behind the arc.
• 30: Points scored by Zach Novak and Stu Douglass. They average a combined 12.6 ppg for the season.
• 3.9: PPG by Colton Iverson in Big Ten games. He can block shots and rebound but he has disappeared as a low post threat. Lack of low post scoring is the biggest reason for the half-court offense struggles.
  

Michigan Preview

Minnesota Golden Gophers (19-6, 7-6) at Michigan Wolverines (16-10, 6-7)

This game is very similar to the Penn State game. Michigan absolutely needs to win this game and should bring their best effort. The Gophers need to show up on the road and a win in Ann Arbor would almost punch their ticket to the tournament. While a loss is not a catastrophe it puts a lot of pressure on winning the home games and would further hurt the sinking confidence. Here is Michigan's resume:

Wins to showcase

• Vs. Duke 81 - 73
• at UCLA 55 - 52

Losses to hide from

• at Penn State 58 - 73
• vs Wisconsin 61 - 73

Assets

• Free Throws: Shooting 76.2% from the line best in the Big Ten
• Manny Harris: 17.5 ppg, 7.2 rebs, 4.3 ass
• DeShawn Sims: 14.6 ppg, 7.3 rebs, .8 ass

Issues

• Shooting: Shoot 42% from the field and 31.7% from behind the arc, both worst in Big Ten
• Defense: Opponents shooting 43.2% 2nd worst in Big Ten
  
• Scoring Depth: Harris and Sims account for 48% of the scoring. Next highest scorer is Laval Lucas-Perry averaging 7.3 ppg and only 4 players average more than 5 ppg in Big Ten games. Conversely, 6 players are doing so for the Gophers.

Every one is aware of Michigan's wins over UCLA and Duke. The problem is that was in the past and the Big Ten season hasn't been as kind. They beat Illinois at home but do not have another decent win. The other 5 wins consist of Iowa, Northwestern and Penn State at home and Indiana and Northwestern on the road. The biggest problem is that if you stop Harris or Sims or even slow them down they are very beatable.

Prediction

Michigan is a very beatable team and like Penn State, while fighting to make the tournament will likely end up in the NIT. If this game was at the Barn as it will be later this season I would expect a Gophers victory but it is on the road and that changes everything. One important thing is that Michigan plays the 1-3-1 on defense that the Gophers struggled against at Northwestern. I would hope that Tubby has the guys ready to crack it and they don't play it nearly as well as Northwestern does. This game should be a very similar sight for Gopher fans. It will be sloppy with turnovers and poor shooting percentages. I think Michigan's desperation and Minnesota's road ineptitude will be too much.

Michigan 62, Minnesota 60

Other Note

• Royce White was not named to the McDonald's All-American game. I think this is a shame. The biggest issue I have is that they picked the Wear twins David and Travis. They have the notch of being twins and are both headed to UNC so they got picked but they are ranked 41 and 42 by ESPN and 68 and 69 by Rivals. White is 25th on ESPN and 19th on Rivals. If Royce was headed to a traditional power like UNC or Duke, I would wager he would have been selected.