#29 Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles
Last Year: 68-93 5th in AL East
This Year: 5th in AL East



Baltimore may not be the second worst team in the MLB. Don't get me wrong they are terrible. The reason why they are the second worst team is because the have the advantage of being terrible and having to play the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays 54 times. That is a punishment that no team deserves. The team is in year 2 of a full rebuilding mode that will take years and may never happen. They have some pieces (Roberts and Markakis) but not nearly enough to be even remotely competitive this year.

Opening Day Lineup w/Projections:
2B Brian Roberts .297 9 HR 56 RBI 37 SB
3B Melvin Mora .277 18 HR 78 RBI
RF Nick Markakis .304 22 HR 97 RBI
1B Aubrey Huff .285 24 HR 93 RBI
CF Adam Jones .278 15 HR 83 RBI 20 SB
DH Luke Scott .261 23 HR 67 RBI
C Greg Zaun .240 5 HR 33 RBI
SS Cesar Izturis .263 2 HR 25 RBI
LF Felix Pie .245 6 HR 23 RBI 25 SB

Rotation
RHP Jeremy Guthrie 9-12 3.54 ERA 123 K
RHP Koji Uehara 7-12 4.43 ERA 129 K
LHP Rich Hill 6-12 4.11 ERA 176 K
LHP Mark Hendrickson 5-12 5.11 ERA 97 K
LHP Radhames Liz 4-9 5.45 ERA 97 K

CP LHP George Sherrill 3.78 ERA 27 SV 57 K

Best Case Scenario: Matt Wieters (#1 prospect according to Baseball America) comes up in May and immediately delivers on his potential and wins the Rookie of the Year. Rich Hill stays healthy and effectively uses his devastating curveball. Koji Uehara transitions well from Japan and is a solid starter. Everyone in the AL East gets injured. This team plays hard and competes with Toronto to not be the worst team in the AL East.

Worst Case Scenario: Matt Wieters struggles to adjust to the majors. Rich Hill gets injured. Koji Uehara is more Kei Igawa than Dice-K. Adam Jones and Felix Pie still can't hit a lick and follow the career path of Corey Patterson. This team gets completely beat down by the East and quits struggling to win 60 games and losses over 100.

Player Most Important to Success: Matt Wieters. Last year he hit .355 with 27 HR in only 437 at-bats. He has huge potential. If he comes up and makes a Evan Longoria and Ryan Braun like entrance he can hit clean-up and give some protection to Nick Markakis. It will also give hope to the beleaguered Oriole fans. If he starts off slow like Jeff Clement(big catching prospect for Seattle who hit .227 with 5 HR after hitting 20 in the minors the previous year) this team will derail and there will be no reason for fans to stick around come June and July.

Outlook: This team has some decent players with Roberts and Markakis potential All-Stars but this team for a third of the year will go against the likes of Sabathia, Beckett, Longoria, Ortiz, A-Rod, Teixeira, Pedroia, Upton. If this team was in the NL West they could possibly get close to 80 wins but instead they will struggle to lose less than 100. This team is trying to rebuild from within with some possible success considering they have 3 prospects in the top 25. Adam Jones, Felix Pie and Rich Hill also have potential to be All-Stars in the future. The question is can they come to fruition in the ultra-competitive AL East. This team is 3-5 years away from fighting to be .500 and even longer from fighting for a division tittle which they have not won since 1997.

Wisconsin Game Review

I have never been a huge Westbrook fan but as much as I dislike him, the whole state of Wisconsin hates him. He has been inconsistent all year and has disappeared for most of the Big Ten but he has single-handedly beat Wisconsin twice when we had no business winning either. Westbrook didn't equal the 29 he scored in Madison but he scored 15 all in the second half. He scored the last 10 points for the Gophers.

This was a huge win. If we had lost that game we would have needed a huge run in the Big Ten tournament. Now, if we beat Michigan on Saturday, we will be in the tournament regardless of how the Big Ten tournament turns out. In fact CBS Sports with the win moved us off the bubble and has us listed as safe. It might be true but I would not like to test that theory by going 0-2.

Another interesting development was that of Devoe Joseph. He started the game at point guard in place of Al Nolen who has been much maligned in the blogosphere. He did not do much only getting 2 points, 2 rebounds and 0 assists but the interesting thing was at the end of the game when we needed stops he was out there and not Nolen. He was in charge of stopping Hughes when we desperately needed stops and he did. He forced back to back misses from Hughes and he also had a hand in the shooters face for both missed 3's down the stretch. While I think he is better as a shooting guard, his defense has drastically improved this season and I would guess he will get the starting nod again on Saturday.

Stats of the Game

• 53.6%: Percentage of Gophers scoring by Westbrook in the second half. He won this game for us down the stretch by being the scorer in the half court.
• 11.25: PPG for Damian Johnson in the last 4 games, outside of Westbrook down the stretch he is the only one who consistently gives the effort and is trying to will the team into the NCAA's. He has become the on-court leader this team needs. He is a lock to win Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.
• 2-22: The Gophers from behind the arc in the last 2 games. They currently have no perimeter game. The two 3's were made by Paul Carter and Travis Busch, not exactly the likely suspects. This team would be so different if Blake returned to last year's form but it just is not going to happen.
  

#30 Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates
Last Year: 67-95 (6th in NL Central)
This Year: 6th in NL Central

The Pirates franchise is a disaster. The last time this team finished above .500 was 1992. That will give them the longest streak of losing season in U.S. major sports history. The last team to finish above .500 was a team with pre-steroids Barry Bonds and was coached by a Jim Leyland who was only 48 years old. This team has history with Bonds, Roberto Clemente, Willy Stargell, Bill Mazeroski, Ralph Kiner and Honus Wagner. This team has won 5 World Series titles; only the Yankees, Cardinals, Athletics, Red Sox and Dodgers have more. This current team in no way resembles those teams. The biggest problem is that no one seems to care about the Pirates (including the front office) and that is a shame.

Opening Day Lineup (w/projections)
LF Nyjer Morgan .295 2 HR 35 RBI 32 SB
2B Freddy Sanchez .297 9 HR 65 RBI
CF Nate McLouth .273 24 HR 95 RBI 20 SB
C Ryan Doumit .303 16 HR 75 RBI
1B Adam LaRoche .271 21 HR 87 RBI
LF Brandon Moss .265 18 HR 75 RBI
3B Andy LaRoche .255 13 HR 44 RBI
SS Jack Wilson .273 5 HR 47 RBI
P Paul Maholm

Rotation
LHP Paul Maholm 10-12 3.87 ERA 133 K
RHP Ian Snell 7-12 4.35 ERA 143 K
LHP Zach Duke 4-11 4.78 ERA 90 K
LHP Tom Gorzelanny 5-9 4.92 ERA 93 K
RHP Ross Ohlendorf 3-7 5.34 ERA 103 K

CP RHP Matt Capps 3.12 ERA 20 SV 45 K

Best Case Scenario: Everyone else decides to cancel their season or the MLB decides not to drug test the Pirates. Seriously if Andy LaRoche delivers on his potential, McLouth and Doumit don't regress, and Duke and Gorzelanny pitch out of their mind they could win 70 games and not be the worst team in the MLB.

Worst Case Scenario: They are the worst case scenario. They don't find a single starter worth a MLB jersey. McLouth, Doumit or Adam LaRoche get hurt or traded. This team struggles to win 60 games.

Most Important Player to Success: Ian Snell. They need a pitcher to step up and at least win a few games for them and pitch into the 7th inning. He has the stuff and if he gets it going he can be that guy. The problem is they still need a lot more than him.

Outlook: This is a terrible team. They have some guy who can hit some home runs, but they have no one that a pitcher is scared to throw to. They also don't bat for average and lack speed which a young, small market team needs. The big problem is the rotation. They don't have a single pitcher who can stop a losing streak and there will be plenty of them. This team is a total wasteland.

The most interesting thing about the Pittsburgh franchise is that they have been at the bottom for over a decade now. They get high draft picks but they are incompetent at drafting and developing players. They only have 3 players in Baseball America's Top 100 prospects. That is terrible for a team drafting in the top 5 every year. To show their ineptitude here are their 1st round picks from 1999-2004: Bobby Bradley, Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten, Bryan Bullington, Paul Maholm and Neil Walker. The next player taken in those drafts in order are Barry Zito, Boof Bonser, Colt Griffin, BJ Upton, John Danks and Jered Weaver. That makes Kevin McHale look like a genius. I don't see the Pirates making the playoffs anytime soon.

The 1st Annual Fourth Strike Baseball Preview Extravaganza

Today I will commence with my 1st Annual Baseball Preview. I have done previews before but this will be a larger undertaking than usual. I will preview all 30 teams day by day. I will make projections for the players on each team. I will also predict award winners and the playoffs. This isn't me just picking teams I have done plenty of research that will quickly be destroyed by a trade or a key injury. This year it figures to be even more true as there are likely to be a lot of trades with the economy changing the budget for some teams. I hope you enjoy it and I'm sure after seeing my predictions you will think I am the dumbest person who ever discussed baseball.

Wisconsin Preview

Minnesota Golden Gophers (20-8, 8-8) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (18-10, 9-7)

March Basketball is officially upon us and it comes in the form of a doozy. This game will be very similar to the Illinois game, it may not be high-scoring and beautiful to look at but it should be a very intense game and an exciting game to watch. Wisconsin is likely already in the tournament but I guarantee they have not forgotten the Gophers rallying to beat them at Kohl to send them into a 6 game spiral. They would relish the chance to severly damage our NCAA chances. Here is Wisconsin's resume:

Wins to showcase:

• Vs. Illinois 63 - 50
• Vs. Ohio State 55 - 50

Losses to hide from:

• at Iowa 69 - 73
• at Northwestern 63 - 66

Previous Result

• Gophers 78, Wisconsin 74

I think it is safe to assume that we can not count on getting 29 points from Westbrook and 11 from Bostick. I would also bet against a double-double by Paul Carter. This game will be nothing like the previous game. However, I bet the Gophers press for most of the game and the length and althleticism of Johnson and Carter should still cause problems for the Badgers.

Wisconsin is a legendary tough team at Kohl but it does not always translate to the road. This year they are 4-6 on the road with the best win at Michigan but they have also lost to Iowa and Northwestern. When it comes to games in March it always seems to come down to who wants the game more and plays like it. While Wisconsin has the revenge motivation and a win will clinch their berth in the tournament I have to believe the Gophers want it more. They need this game and they have been practicing for a week for this game with Tubby in their ear about how much they need this game. This is a different team at home mainly because they play stifling defense (holding Big Ten opponents to 56.14 ppg) and actually make an outside jump shot. I think the Gophers desperation will outweigh the Badgers want for revenge.

Gophers 57, Wisconsin 53

WBC Preview (Part 2)

Here are the teams 1-4.

4. Japan
Pool A
2006 result: 5-3 Won 2006 Classic
Notable Hitters:
C Kenji Johjima
2B Aki Iwamura
RF Kosuke Fukudome
CF Ichiro Suzuki
Notable Pitchers:
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Outlook: Japan is very similar to Cuba in that they are a great unknown. Most of their talent plays in Japan and are the great unknown. Japan is a little more well known than Cuba as they do have Major Leaguers on their team. No one is going to blown away by Dice-K this time around. Japan has been scoured for talent since the arrival of Ichiro and it's success in the WBC and most of the elite talent has been found with the latest arrivals having mixed results like Fukudome or Kei Igawa. They have the easiest Pool and should make the semifinals where anything can happen so they should be able to compete to defend their title but I don't expect them to win it this year.

3. Venezuela
Pool C
2006 Result: 3-3 Lost in Round 2 Pool
Probable Lineup:
SS Cesar Izturis
2B Jose Lopez
LF Bobby Abreu
1B Miguel Cabrera
RF Magglio Ordonez
DH Carlos Guillen
3B Melvin Mora
C Ramon Hernandez
CF Endy Chavez

Notable Pitchers: Felix Hernandez, Carlos Zambrano, Carlos Silva, Armando Galarraga, Francisco Rodriguez

Assets: 3-6 Hitters very solid, Three solid starters, very good closer
Issues: Hitters are on the older side and lack athleticism. Lack of pitching depth.
Outlook: A very solid team with some elite talent. They could use Johan Santana to add to the pitching depth. The biggest problem for them is they are in the hardest Pool with USA and Canada and if they advance they will be put in the same Round 2 pool with USA, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. They have the talent but the road they face and the lack of pitching depth likely will be their downfall and they will likely have a similar result as 2006.

2. Dominican Republic
Pool D
2006 Result: 5-2 Lost in Semifinals to Cuba
Probable Lineup:
SS Hanley Ramirez
2B Robinson Cano
DH David Ortiz
3B Alex Rodriguez
LF Jose Guillen
1B Willy Aybar
C Miguel Olivo
RF Nelson Cruz
CF Willy Taveras

Possible Lineup if postions are flexible:
SS Jose Reyes
CF Hanley Ramirez
DH David Ortiz
3B Alex Rodriguez
1B Miguel Tejada
LF Jose Guillen
2B Robinson Cano
C Miguel Olivo
RF Nelson Cruz

Notable Pitchers: Edinson Volquez, Pedro Martinez, Johnny Cueto, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jose Arredondo

Assets: Young Pitchers with outstanding stuff, infield depth, speed
Issues: Lack of closer or outstanding middle relief, outfield, finding places for talent
Outlook: The biggest problem for the Dominican Republic is finding a way to get the talent on the field. Having Reyes, Tejada and Beltre on your bench does not help you win games. I think they might end up getting very creative with the positions. There is talk Tejada might play 1st base and they could move Hanley to the outfield and put Reyes at shortstop. If they can find a way to bat Reyes and Hanley 1-2 they will cause a lot of problems for team. They also have been hurt by Carlos Marmol not participating as he could have been the closer they need. This team has a lot of talent and is a serious threat to win the title if they can utilize their ability.

1. USA
Pool C
2006 Result: 3-3 Lost in Round 2 Pool
Probable Lineup:
SS Jimmy Rollins
2B Dustin Pedroia
DH Chipper Jones
LF Ryan Braun
3B David Wright
1B Kevin Youkillis
C Brian McCann
RF Shane Victorino
CF Curtis Granderson

Notable Pitchers: Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt, Jonathon Broxton, J.J. Putz

Assets: Very well-rounded lineup, pitching depth, middle relief
Issues: Starting Pitching, outfield depth
Outlook: Team USA is in the unique position of being able to form the type of team they want. Judging by the roster they are looking for a bunch of relievers instead of starters. That strategy has taken a hit with Joe Nathan and Brian Fuentes not participating due to injuries. They still have plenty of players that can come in for an inning and get it done like Scot Shields, Matt Thorton, Brad Ziegler and Jonathon Broxton. They may not be as sexy as Clemens but they should be able to fulfill their roles. The lineup is perfectly balanced. There are veterans in Chipper, Jeter and Rollins and their is youth in Braun, Granderson and Pedroia. They have speed and they have power. The most important thing is they all hit for high average. Of the probable starters only Jimmy Rollins hit below .280 last year and he hit .277. 5 of the starters hit over.300. There biggest issues will be overconfidence and the fact that they are the hunted. But if this team plays with pride and matches the intensity of the other countries they should be in the mix for the 2009 World Baseball Classic title.

WBC Preview (Part 1)

Early Thursday morning the second World Baseball Classic will begin in Tokyo. While it is not on the level of the World Cup or Olympic Hockey, it is certainly better than Olympic Basketball. The idea is good in theory but the main problem lies in that the pitchers are not allowed to go all out and there are some great players who are not playing due to injury or because of their MLB team. That said it is still exciting because there are a lot of talented teams, players and there are no overwhelming favorites like USA basketball or Canada hockey. It is a 16 team tournament and there are 8 teams with legitimate teams that conceivably win the Classic. I have ranked the talent level of the teams 1-8. Part 1 is teams 5-8.

8. Canada
Pool C
2006 Result: 2-1 Lost tiebreaker in Pool B to Mexico and USA
Probable Lineup:
2B Pete Orr
C Russell Martin
CF Jason Bay
1B Justin Morneau
DH Joey Votto
LF Mark Teahen
RF Matt Stairs
3B Corey Koskie
SS Chris Barnwell

Notable Pitchers: Jesse Crain

Assets: They have a pretty formidable middle of the lineup with a lot of power
Issues: Lack pitching, poor middle infield and left-handed heavy lineup (Martin, Bay and Barnwell only righties).
Outlook: They were hurt by some notable pitchers not participating such as Erik Bedard, Adam Loewen, and Jeff Francis. Lack of any pitching and the fact that they are in the toughest pool will be their downfall as they are likely to finish third in Pool C.

7. Mexico
Pool B
2006 Result: 3-3 Lost in 2nd Round Pool
Probable Lineup:
SS Jerry Hairston Jr.
2B Edgar Gonzalez
1B Adrian Gonzalez
3B Jorge Cantu
C Rod Barajas
LF Scott Hairston
RF Karim Garcia
DH Freddy Sandoval
CF Alfredo Amezaga

Notable Pitchers: Oliver Perez, Luis Ayala, Jorge Campillo, Joakim Soria

Assets: Very good closer in Soria and two good hitters in Adrian Gonzalez and Cantu
Issues: Not a lot of speed, poor outfield and lack of pitching depth
Outlook: Not an overly impressive team but in an easier Pool and it is in Mexico so they should advance to the second round but end there.

6. Puerto Rico
Pool D
2006 Result: 4-2 Lost in 2nd Round Pool
Probable Lineup:
2B Felipe Lopez
SS Mike Aviles
CF Carlos Beltran
RF Alex Rios
1B Carlos Delgado
DH Geovany Soto
C Yadier Molina
LF Bernie Williams
3B Ramon Vazquez

Notable Pitchers: Ian Snell, Jonathan Sanchez, Javier Vazquez, JC Romero

Assets: Very Good Middle of the Lineup
Issues: Lack Pitching Depth, Bernie Williams, lackluster middle infield
Outlook: Has some big talent in Beltran, Rios and Soto but Delgado is a little old and Bernie Williams is way to old. Don't have the depth of the more elite teams but should finish similar to 2006.

5. Cuba
Pool B
2006 Result: 5-3 Lost in Final to Japan
Probable Lineup:
I have no idea
Notable Pitchers: No idea
Cuba is the great unknown in the tournament. Unlike other Caribbean nations ther players are not allowed to leave and they all play for the national team. They get a bonus because they are a team that has been together for years and is training for this event. They also have talent. Cuba players that do defect ususually are impact players in the MLB. Alexei Ramirez was on the Cuba team in 2006. Other notable players from Cuba are Jose Conseco, Yunel Escobar, Livan Hernandez, Orlando Hernandez, Tony Oliva, Rafael Palmeiro. The talent is there I just have no idea where it is. The reason why they are not ranked higher is that the talent they have is not as well developed as a major league vetren. They may have a player with All-star talent but they are not All-stars. The team with mostly the same players just finished second at the Bejing Olympics. They did however beat the USA team 10-2 but that team did not have Dustin Pedroia and Chipper Jones.